Tuesday, 4 May 2021

#WWCC2021 Power Rankings - Day 6

#BetweenTheSheets: Defense Wins Championships?

Is the best offense for Moving Day a strong defense?



The NCAA football coaching legend Paul William "Bear" Bryant said it best: "Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships."

Bear Bryant obviously knew what he was talking about.

During his tenure as head coach of the University of Alabama (1958 - 1982), Bryant led the Crimson Tide to 6 national championships, 13 Southeastern Conference (SEC) championships and remains the youngest coach to win 300 games and have 30 winning seasons.

Amazing!

Bryant also understood the philosophy of success in sports. He recognized sports are a money-making business. You need to make money. You need to sell tickets. You need to win games.

His quote still holds true today. Sports fans pay to see offense but stay fans to be part of a championship.

But does Bryant's philosophy transfer over from the gridiron to the ice house?

Curling has continued to adapt the game to increase the offense. In essence, to sell more tickets, create a more interesting and high-paced game and eliminate the "yawner" ends of the past.

The evolution to the 4-rock rule to the 5-rock rule to the tick shot to the Champions Cup using the "No tick shot" rule, curling has made attempts to keep the game moving.

As such, players and teams need to adapt their strategy as well. Game styles change. Teams who used to be big weight hitters now need to also have the finesse draws in their back pocket. And vice versa.

But, rule changes and adaptations aside, at the end of the day does Bryant's quote hold true inside the rings?

For simplicity of argument, lets look at a few recent international curling events to see if a defensive mindset translates over to champagne showers.

Here are the events we will look at:
  1. 2018 Winter Olympics - Men
  2. 2018 Winter Olympics - Women
  3. 2019 World Women's Curling Championship
  4. 2019 World Men's Curling Championship
  5. 2021 World Men's Curling Championship
These events are all relatively recent. They have similar fields. Similar teams. Similar players. The sample size comparison is fair.

Did the defensive strategy team emerge with the title though? The best stat we have is Points For (PF) / Points Against (PA).

I recognize there is extra factors in play here such as hammer efficiency and force efficiency but lets focus on the scoring as our sample size.

2018 Winter Olympics - Men

When looking at the men's competition in Pyeongchang, the top 5 teams with lowest PA were:
  1. Sweden (Team Edin) - 43
  2. Canada (Team Koe) - 46
  3. Switzerland (Team De Cruz) - 55
  4. Norway (Team Ulsrud) / Japan (Team Morozumi) / Italy (Team Retornaz) - 56
Notice who is missing from the list above? The gold medal winners USA (Team Shuster).

USA allowed 63 points over 9 RR games, tied with South Korea (Team Kim) for the 2nd most points allowed.

On the flip side, USA also scored more points than any other nation in the RR. They scored 67 points in 9 games. Their PF / PA ratio equates to almost a tie of 7-7 per game. Lots of offense. Not a ton of defense. Rocks in play, points on the board.

Offense sold tickets and won a gold medal. But high defensive totals landed Sweden and Switzerland on the podium with silver and bronze medal wins respectively.

2018 Winter Olympics - Women

The women's competition produced a slightly different result. The Top 5 PA were:
  1. South Korea (Team Kim) - 44
  2. Sweden (Team Hasselborg) - 48
  3. Japan (Team Fujisawa) / Switzerland (Team Tirinzoni) - 55
  4. Great Britain (Team Muirhead) - 56
All 4 playoff teams had the lowest PA stats. South Korea also had the highest PF (75) while Sweden ranked 3rd (64) and Great Britain ranked 4th (61).

The outlier was Japan who displayed strong defense but also failed to produce strong offense, only scoring 59 points, a 6th place ranking.

The gold medal game produced Sweden sticking to a strong offense, never allowing Korea to generate multiple points with hammer, while scoring 2 in 4, a steal in 5 and 3 in 7 to ice the game.

Sweden's offense was alive but their defense, holding the highest scoring team in the field to only 3 points in the final, solidified the gold medal win.

2019 World Women's Curling Championship

How did the Top 5 PA stats look from the world championship in Denmark:
  1. Sweden (Team Hasselborg) - 60
  2. Switzerland (Team Tirinzoni) - 71
  3. South Korea (Team Kim) / Russia (Team Kovaleva) - 74
  4. Japan (Team Nakajima) - 77
Once again, the top two defensive teams were the last teams standing on championship Sunday competing for the title.

Amazing stat from Sweden, allowing only 60 points over 12 games, averaging 5 points allowed per game. Remarkable!

Sweden also scored the 2nd most PF (92), behind only China's Team Mei who scored 95.

In the end, Switzerland took the title with a 8-7 extra end win. Sweden's defensive mindset during the event let them down in the final, giving up deuces in ends 4 and 8 and allowing a costly steal in 9.

Switzerland, on the other hand, found the defense in the final, holding Sweden to scoring deuces in only ends 5 and 7 and picking up the pivotal steal late in the game to shift the momentum.

2019 World Men's Curling Championship

Oh yes, the world championships in Lethbridge. What a great time was had by all! But did the top defensive team take home the title?

Here were the Top 5 PA teams:
  1. Sweden (Team Edin) - 50
  2. Scotland (Team Mouat) - 60
  3. Canada (Team Koe) / USA (Team Shuster) - 63
  4. Italy (Team Retornaz) - 64
All the teams ranking in the Top 4 made the playoffs. But look at the difference between Sweden and Scotland. 10 point difference in point allowed. Incredible!

In the final Sweden defeated Canada 7-2. At first glance, it would seem offense won the day due to the high count of putting 7 on the board. But that offensive stat is misleading. The 7 resulted in a gold medal clinching steal of 3 in 9. Entering the 9th end the score of 4-2 Sweden with Canada holding hammer.

The final saw 3 blank ends. No team was able to score multiple points with hammer.

Defense won this championship. Canada only scored 2 total points and the opening point they scored in end 3 was actually a steal, perhaps the only small knock on Sweden's defensive championship win.

Sweden held Canada to only scoring one point with hammer the entire game. Sweden's win was secured with steals of 2 in 8 and 3 in 9. Perhaps an offensive defense strategy, sure. But the defense reigned supreme.

2021 World Men's Curling Championship

And now we enter the #IceBubble. Did a strong defensive stance result in another championship win for Sweden's Team Edin?

Here are the Top 5 PA:
  1. Sweden (Team Edin) - 63
  2. Italy (Team Retornaz) - 64
  3. Scotland (Team Mouat) - 68
  4. Switzerland (Team De Cruz) - 72
  5. RCF (Team Glukhov) - 73
Once again, the Final Four all happen to be ranked in the Top 5 for points against. Are we really surprised?

Sweden and Scotland faced off in the final with both being in the Top 3 of the defensive stat category.

Did defense win the title? Well look at the game.

Both teams were able to score a deuce with hammer, but only once each. Scotland did so in end 2 while Sweden replied with the same in end 3. All the remaining ends, outside the 9th end of course, were forces from the opposition. Neither team was able to generate multiple point ends while securing only a single. No stolen points in this final.

The score of 5 in the 9th end for Sweden was a mixed bag of Scotland going with an offensive defense strategy and Sweden able to match them from an offensive standpoint.

Sweden's defense kept Scotland at bay while forcing Scotland into an all-out battle in 9 to try and make something happen. They went for it. Sweden didn't budge and game over.

As an aside, special shout out to Italy's Joel Retornaz. Notice how his name is listed in all 3 men's examples above.

Retornaz plays a very defensive strategy. He does believe defense can win.

The flip side for Retornaz is, in all the examples above, the PF was middle of the pack. You still need to score the big ends when you are on offense to win the games.

Remember offense sells tickets...and is still needed to win the championship.

You can force your opposition every time they have hammer but if they do the same to you, it comes down to who has hammer last and sometimes this is where Retornaz gets caught.

Is there really a major difference between losing 4-5 or 5-9? A loss is a loss is a loss.

Based on the recent small sample size above, it would appear Coach Bryant was right on the money: Defense wins championships!

So lets shift focus to the WWCC and use a defensive lens to update the Power Rankings.

Are the teams who show strong defense able to equate the strategy into more wins?

Wednesday is #MovingDay where teams needs the Ws to move up the standings and position themselves into playoff contention.

Lets view the updated Power Rankings mountain!

Note in parenthesis is the team record and the ranking listed is the ranking from the Day 5 blog post.

#PowerRankings



1. #TeamBellatrix - Team Kovaleva (8-0, #2): The last undefeated team in the competition ascends to the top of the mountain. In 8 games, Kovaleva has conceded 43 points, averaging just over 5 points a game. On Tuesday they knocked off Japan 6-5 and China 8-4. Yup, right on cue for the average. In each game they only gave up a deuce once. They are the #3 rated defense thus far so everything is clicking at the right time. #TeamBellatrix is also scoring at lightning speed, putting up 61 points thus far for an average of just under 8 points per game. They score in bunches and concede only singles. Plus they steal, alot! They have 10 stolen ends already, averaging more than 1 stolen end per game. The makings of a future world champion? They should have a playoff, and Olympic, spot locked down as well. The game Wednesday morning vs. Sweden will be huge for clinching the #1 seed.  Next Up: SWE, CZE, BYE

2. Sweden - Team Hasselborg (6-1 #3): Speaking of Sweden, they happen to have the best defensive stat in the field. Based on the analysis above, are you surprised? Hasselborg has only given up 29 points in 7 games, averaging 4 points against per game. We only saw them once on Tuesday but they dominated main rival Switzerland 8-3, conceding less points than their average going into the game. They are middle of the pack when it comes to PF, which is a bit surprising. They are stealing, on average, one end per game though so that helps break open a close game or pad the lead. The Wednesday morning battle is going to be a good one.  Next Up: #BELLA, USA, BYE

3. Switzerland - Team Tirinzoni (7-1, #1): Mixed day at the office for the defending champs. They struggled Tuesday morning, taking a tough loss to rival Sweden. But, as great champions do, they parked the loss during their afternoon bye and made short work of Czech Republic in the evening draw. Tirizoni often has low scoring, close games and usually comes to play with a defensive mindframe, which usually works in her favour. They have only conceded 31 points in 8 games and, bolstered by the big 9-1 win Tuesday night, have now scored 71 point, most among the field. They are scoring more than anyone. They are allowing the second least amount of point against. We saw a similar approach in 2019 and look how that ended for #HoppSchwiiz.  Next Up: BYE, SCO, BYE

4. USA - Team Peterson (6-3, #6): Who needs the #gsoc events when you can come to a world championship and just win, win, win. One W over two slam events? Who dat? Not dis team! Those slams were just tune-up events for Team Peterson and they are starting to peak at the EXACT right time. Not going to lie, I did not see this coming. But what a story. Sweeping two of the #PACC nations on Tuesday puts them in prime playoff position heading into #MovingDay. The PF/PA ration is fairly even oddly enough for this team. They currently sit at 63/54. The stat does support a winning record though, taking each game at an average score of 7-6. The key to the US success is wearing the #StealPants. Defensively they may give up a few multi-point ends in their games BUT the difference is they recoup the points in their steals. They have collected 11 stolen ends thus far, averaging over one per game. There is the difference in close games. The offensive defense strategy is working and the steals are securing the Ws. The game Wednesday against champion fav Sweden will go a long way in telling if this team is indeed ready for the championship spotlight.  Next Up: BYE, SWE, CZE

5. Scotland - Team Muirhead (5-3, #5): The plague of the 8th end will potentially haunt Team Muirhead the rest of this week and, depending how results go, possibly after this championship wraps up. Scotland was in control of their game Tuesday night vs. Canada. They had the chance to put the nails in the Canada coffin....and then the 8th end happened. Canada steals 3. Sure, Scotland stole in 10 to force the extra but the momentum had swung the other way and Scotland ran out of ends to try and gain the advantage back. Now the Scots are 5-3, only a game and half ahead of Canada and they still have to play Switzerland on Wednesday afternoon and leaders #TeamBellatrix Thursday night. Defensively, Scotland is actually having a great tournament. They have only allowed 49 points against and have scored 55 for themselves. The key difference? They have only allowed a score of 3 against in 4 games this week. 3 of those games are their losses (Korea, Sweden, Canada). The other was Tuesday afternoon vs. Czech Republic in the 9th end. Luckily they were able to win in 10 with hammer. If they can hold their opposition to 2 or less points when they have hammer, this team is coming out victorious. They cannot beat themselves with one "bad" end down the stretch here.  Next Up: BYE, SUI, EST

6. China - Team Han (4-4, #4): Disaster. The one word to really describe China's day on Tuesday. They entered the day 4-2 and had the chance to control their fate and knock off two top contenders. Instead they suffered back to back losses, find themselves at 4-4 and in danger of slipping outside the playoff picture. The defense let them down today. Heading into the day they were fairly balances in the PF/PA category. Unfortunately they faced the double double on Tuesday, giving up double what they put in. They lost 4-8 to #TeamBellatrix and 3-6 to USA. The "score 1, give 2" mentality is not a game plan to pick up wins, especially against this competition. Add in the fact they gave up steals in both games, there is a difference maker. Now comes the true mental test for the 20-year old skipper. They play Germany on Wednesday in their lone game. They draw Korea and Italy on Thursday and then end the RR vs. Canada on Friday. Could China vs. Canada to end the RR become a de facto play-in game with an Olympic spot on the line for Canada? Lets see how China rebounds on Wednesday after two tough losses on Tuesday first.  Next Up: BYE, BYE, GER

7. Canada - Team Einarson (4-5, #10): HUGE! What other word can describe the results on Tuesday for Team Canada? They were 2-5 entering the day and on the brink of elimination and feeling a bit broken. Resiliency knocked on their door and they answered picking up two big wins and now look primed to take that 6th and final playoff (and Olympic) spot. The W vs. Scotland in the night cap was exactly that...HUGE! It brought back one of the contenders and bumped Canada's record. They are not out of the woods yet though. The key for Einarson is the number of ends stolen right now. They lead the field with 13. The difference in the close game vs. Scotland was the steal of 3 in the 8th end to take control. Going into that end, Scotland had hammer and was leading 3-2. Canada's offensive defense strategy in the 8th end proved the difference. There was much talk over the weekend results showing Canada was slipping in the late stages of the game. Tuesday night was a difference result. They were on the winning end of late game heroics, which should bolster some confidence and momentum. But don't bring out the playoff/Olympic streamers yet. There is still A LOT of work to be done. Canada only has one game on Wednesday, taking on last place Estonia. This game could have the making of a #TrapGame. Just ask Team Bottcher when they played Korea. Anyone can beat anyone in any draw. They are still on the outside looking in and cannot afford another loss. On the positive, they like to steal. Estonia gives up steals. #TrapGame or #Blowout?  Next Up: EST, BYE, BYE

8. Denmark - Team Dupont (3-4, #9): The blog warned you in the preview....never count out experience. Dupont has showcased her experience thus far, calling a smart game plan strategy, playing to her strengths and executing to perfection. Sure the team is 3-4 but losses to #TeamBellatrix, Sweden and Switzerland looks pretty good considering where they are in the standings. The loss to Japan was tough but the win vs. Germany on Tuesday has them in a great position. We know Dupont likes rocks in play so seeing the team giving up 55 points through 7 games is not surprising. They also have the least amount of blank ends thus far with 1. If this team wants to make the push for the Top 6, they may need to tighten up that defense approach just a bit. It could be the difference between a playoff spot and finishing 7th.  Next Up: KOR, BYE, ITA

9. Germany - Team Jentsch (3-5, #7): You have to wonder if fatigue is starting to set in for Team Germany. The tough loss Monday night to Estonia followed a tough Tuesday afternoon loss to Denmark. Both games could have gone in their favour but they just came up short. Defense can be tough to come by with only 3 players and the stats show it. Jentsch has conceded 62 points in 8 games. They are giving up too many multi-point ends per game and it is hurting them. They have scored 55 points so we know the games will be close. But that one "bad" end in those losses hurts. The 5 spot they gave to Italy in the 9th end. The steal of 2 to Estonia in the extra. The steal of 2 to Denmark in the 5th on Tuesday. You minimize any of the points against in those three games and this team could be 4-4 or even 5-3 right now.  Next Up: JPN, BYE, CHN

10. South Korea - Team Kim (3-5, #12): When you give up 63 points over 8 games, you are probably going to come up with the L more often than the W. This is the story of the #GarlicGirls thus far. They are like Oprah handing out free cars. You get extra points and you get extra points and you get extra points. Everyone gets extra points. I respect the team wanting to play a similar strategy we saw at the 2018 Winter Olympics. They are not afraid of rocks in play. However, the lack on competitive curling games under the slider is hurting them as they are unable to bail out when the end is getting tricky. They were able to do this at the Olympics and avoid those big ends. They are not doing the same here. The inconsistencies are just creeping up too many times in a game and that is really what is hurting them. They are not out of this championship by any means but they need 2 wins on #MovingDay.  Next Up: DEN, JPN, BYE

11. Japan - Team Yoshimura (2-5, #8): Japan controlled their fate on Tuesday and came up short in both games, suffering losses to #TeamBellatrix and USA. The interesting thing is, from a defensive stat perspective, this team is actually one of the best. They have only conceded 45 points in 7 games, averaging just over 6 points per game. Not too bad with a 5-rock rule. The problem for them is their offense is not showing up. They have only scored 42 points. They are missing those opportunities to score multi-points with hammer, which is costing them. Tuesday is the perfect example. They gave up 2 to #TeamBellatrix in 10 to take the L in the morning and then lost in an extra to USA in the afternoon. They played 21 ends of curling on Tuesday. They had hammer for 11 of those ends. They scored multiple points only 3 times. They are not giving up the big ends, in fact they only gave up a deuce three times on Tuesday, unfortunately one game in the 10th end and the others were back-to-back when USA scored 2 and then stole 2. All hope is not lost of course. They are sitting at the magic number of 5 so they need to run the gauntlet now. Defense is looking good. Offense is the problem area.  Next Up: GER, KOR, BYE

12. Italy - Team Constantini (2-7, #14): The Italians lead the field....in points against. Through 9 games they have allowed 68 points, just over 7 points per game. Now, to their defense, they have also played 9 games compared to the majority of teams who have played 7 or 8 so the stat can be a bit misleading right now. However, giving up 7 points per game is still making it tough to collect those Ws. The Italian offense did come alive Tuesday night though in their 11-5 victory over Estonia. Those 11 points now puts them at 54 points for or 6 per game. When you look at the stats, on average, Italy is losing games by a score of 7-6. Pretty good run considering how young this team. And their defense is actually fairly strong when you look at the number of Stolen Ends they have captured. Against Estonia, they stole 5 ends. 5! They now have a total of 11 stolen ends in the competition, tied for 2nd overall with USA and just behind Canada (13). The stats really tell a much better story to how this team is performing compared to their record. Don't judge a book by its cover!  Next Up: BYE, BYE, DEN

13. Czech Republic - Team Kubeskova (2-6, #11): Look at these stats: Point For 30, Points Against 59. If you were not told the team or the record, you could probably guess how many wins and losses this team would have. The numbers tell a story. The Czech's are getting "Czech Mate" from their opposition by stealing so many points. Look at Tuesday's losses to Scotland and Switzerland. Scotland picked their pocket twice for 2 pivotal points in a close game. Switzerland also went with the #StealPants fashion, stealing scores of 4 and 3 to put that game out of reach. Teams are coming at them with an offensive defense approach and the Czech's have been unable to respond so they give up a few big ends. They also sometimes play too defensive with hammer, ending up being forced more often than not. They need to flip the script now. Go with an offensive defensive strategy countered with a more offensive offense attack. What do they have to lose at this point? They sit with 6 losses, just holding on to the playoff bubble. And they play two contenders on Wednesday....time to play spoiler?  Next Up: BYE, #BELLA, USA

14. Estonia - Team Turmann (1-7, #13): The emotional high of picking up the first ever W for your nation at the world championship was swept away fairly quick on Tuesday for Team Turmann. Korea took control in the morning game and Italy stole, stole and stole some more in the night cap. Add up 2 more losses for the debut nation and they sit at the bottom of the table with a 1-7 record. Adding in the 11 points against from Italy Tuesday night, Estonia's PA number ballooned to 66 through 8 games. In this field, giving up more than 8 points per game is not going to translate into a ton of wins unfortunately. They have also only scored 45 points, T10 overall. Things will not get easier on Wednesday either. Can they play spoiler? #MovingDay can produce those #TrapGame results.  Next Up: CAN, BYE, SCO

#StayTuned


The broadcast blackout continues on Wednesday but could be lifted. Who knows really. Does it even need to be at this point?

If you want entertaining coverage, check out 2018 Olympian Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi from Japan offering shot by shot commentary. It is amazing!

Join the discussion and post your rankings using #PowerRankings and #WWCC2021 on social media.

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