#BetweenTheSheets: Elimination Day
Welcome to #EliminationDay!
This may be my favourite day of a championship event.
A few teams start clinching playoff spots and eyeing up high seeds for the playoffs.
A few others use momentum from #MovingDay to continue climbing the standings and keep those playoff and Olympic aspirations alive.
And a few others....well thanks for playing.
It sounds harsh but this is sports. We are not handing out participation ribbons here.
We are handing out a world championship and 6 (or 5) spots in the 2022 Winter Olympics.
Those with a weak stomach need not watch.
As we saw with the #WMCC2021, there are 6 playoff spots on the line.
There are 6 Olympic tickets to claim. Unless China goes on a remarkable comeback streak over the final two days of course. We may only have 5 tickets to hand out.
Which teams are thriving inside the #IceBubble?
Which teams are closing in on a playoff spot?
Which teams have work to do?
Lets take a look at our #OlympicBubble inside the #IceBubble!
Here is where we stand entering Thursday draws:
Lock: #TeamBellatrix
Should Be In: Switzerland, Sweden
Still Work To Do: Scotland, USA, Denmark
On The Bubble: Canada, China, Germany
Needs Help: Korea
Eliminated: Czech Republic, Japan, Italy, Estonia
Let me clarify how nations are placed on the above #OlympicBubble. People may be a bit surprised or disappointed to see Canada, for example, listed as "On The Bubble".
When there is an uneven schedule, such as this one, where some teams have played 11 games while others have played 10 and some have played 9, looking at the win column in the standings is misleading.
Yes, Canada currently has the same amount of wins as Denmark and Germany and one more win than China and Korea.
However, the losses is where you get the real story.
Denmark only has 4. And they have a game in hand. I would much rather have one less loss than a tie for wins.
Similar for Korea. They have 4 wins, tied with China, and only one behind Denmark/Canada/Germany.
BUT they also have 6 losses. It will be tough for them to gain ground on those above them. They can add to the win column but they cannot subtract from the loss column.
We have always said 5 losses in the threshold. We never speak of it being 8 wins. We talk in terms of how many losses can a team "afford" to take in the field to stay alive.
This is just Sports Analytics 101.
We see it in MLB or the NFL or the NBA when we start talking about the playoffs. We talk about how many "games back" a team is from the playoff line.
Are you on the right side of the bubble or the wrong side?
We look at it from losses because records are always imbalanced. Some teams play more games early. Some play more late. It is just how scheduling goes.
Canada is half a game behind Denmark for the final playoff spot. They are a full game behind Scotland and a game and a half behind USA.
Denmark, for another example, is half a game behind Scotland for the #5 seed and a game behind USA for the #4 seed.
Got all that?
#MovingDay proved to be quite interesting. A few nations went 2-0 and made big strides up the leaderboard. A few picked up their sole victory in their lone game. And some, well they went 0-2 and now find themselves needing wins and some help along the way.
Lets see if the results caused an earthquake to Power Rankings Mountain.
And look ahead to what teams need to do on #EliminationDay to keep those playoff hopes alive.
Nobody wants to make this far into the event only to receive the red "Eliminated" stamp right near the end of a long week.
Note in parenthesis is the team record and the ranking listed is the ranking from the Day 6 blog post.
#PowerRankings
1. #TeamBellatrix - Team Kovaleva (9-1, #1): Must be nice to take your first loss of the event AND still qualify for the playoffs and Olympics at the same time. It may not be the ideal way to clinch a spot but Team Kovaleva will take it. The victory Wednesday morning over Sweden really clinched the spot, even if unofficially. What a back and forth game too. They score 5. They give up 4. Both teams had steals. Possible playoff (or final) preview? Kovaleva will now set her sights on the SF bye. The only "elimination" she has to worry about on Thursday is losing one of the top two seeds. Big games against two playoff contenders. Next Up: SUI, BYE, SCO
2. Switzerland - Team Tirinzoni (8-1, #3): When you only play one game a day, you better make it count. The champs did so. They knocked off contender Scotland, moved back into the coveted Top 2 and now re-control their own fate for a SF bye. What more could you ask for? Expect Switzerland to clinch their playoff (and Olympic) spot on Thursday. One win should do it. Although it will not come easy with back-to-back games against the top ranked team and the current 4th place team. Next Up: #BELLA, USA, BYE
3. Sweden - Team Hasselborg (7-2 #2): Skip Anna Hasselborg and second Agnes Knochenhauer shared birthday celebrations on Wednesday. Unfortunately they were not able to pull the double wins, one for each of them. The morning loss was tough but positives to take out of the L when you give up 5 and answer right back with 4 the next end and make a game out of it. True grit we see in the characteristic of true champions. They got back on the ice, dominated USA and have a two game lead on the #3 seed. However, you know they want the top spot. They have a split record with the teams above them so, which team will they be cheering for Thursday morning while they relax in their hotel beds? Sweden has the most favourable schedule, standings wise, compared to the two above them. Expect this team to clinch their playoff spot on Thursday as well. Next Up: BYE, GER, KOR
4. USA - Team Peterson (7-4, #4): Kind of what we expected from USA on #MovingDay. And pretty much exactly what they needed to do. They split their two games. Sure they lost to Sweden and drop to 4 losses but they also defeated Czech Republic to pick up a coveted 7th win. Big game on Thursday vs. Switzerland. A win and they will almost clinch that playoff spot. A loss and they are in trouble. They close the RR on Friday vs. #TeamBellatrix. They need one more win against one of the top two teams. Yikes! Next Up: BYE, SUI, BYE
5. Scotland - Team Muirhead (6-4, #5): Similar to USA above, Scotland went out on #MovingDay and didn't pack any boxes. They went 1-1 to stay right where they are in the standings....for now. The loss to Switzerland is a missed opportunity but they rebounded nicely vs. Estonia. Only one game on #EliminationDay, against the first place team. A loss moves them into the danger zone. A win gives them a bit of breathing room heading into their final two games vs. Denmark and China. Next Up: BYE, BYE, #BELLA
6. Denmark - Team Dupont (5-4, #8): If you are a true sports fan, you are loving Team Denmark right now. What a #TeamUpset story! Heading into the world championship they were seeded #14. Look where they are now...holding down the final playoff spot. They packed a TON of boxes on #MovingDay. Movin' On Up!! Huge victories over Korea and Italy helped them make their move. They control their fate. They draw Canada and Estonia on Thursday. They can put some nails in Canada's coffin in the morning and possibly solidify their place among the Top 6 in the evening. As I said on twitter Wednesday night, who is still sleeping on this team? If you are...WAKE THE F UP!!! Next Up: CAN, BYE, EST
7. Germany - Team Jentsch (5-5, #9): Speaking of feel good stories, Germany's Team Jentsch continues to capture the hearts of curling fans around the world. What a day they had on Wednesday. First they play the double extra end vs. Japan then knock off upstart China to go 2-0 and move themselves back into the playoff picture. Huge advantage for them right now knowing they have wins over both their fellow 5-loss teams. Disadvantage is look who they play on Thursday. A loss to Sweden will not eliminate them but it will leave them with some work to do...and possibly needing some help. Again, those losses to Italy and Estonia are hurting this team. They could easily be 7-3 and in the hunt for a SF bye. Props to Analena Jentsch! She is a BEAST folks. She swept EVERY rock in the Wednesday morning game vs. Japan. That is 12 ends of play. 8 rocks per end. That is 96 rocks she swept, sometimes on her own, in one game. Yes, that was #HERstory! Next Up: BYE, SWE, BYE
8. Canada - Team Einarson (5-5, #7): Four in a row. Moving up the standings. Canada knows what's up on #MovingDay. They also know what is at stake on #EliminationDay. We only saw the Canadians on the ice once on Wednesday but they picked up the needed W over Estonia to keep the dream alive. They were battled in the first half of the game too, which I think is a good thing for this team. They need to keep being tested and coming out on top. Thursday is very much a possible Elimination Day. The morning draw vs. Denmark will be massive. Lose that game and you are in lots of trouble. Win and all of a sudden you are sitting in sole position of the final playoff spot. What a comeback story....if they can finish the final chapter of the RR. I wouldn't want to be playing Kerri Einarson right now though, just sayin'. Next Up: DEN, JPN, BYE
9. China - Team Han (4-5, #6): The slide continues for the young Chinese skip. You have to feel for this team too. Remember when they were 4-2 and looking like a great #TeamUpset story? 3 straight losses later and here they sit 4-5 and trying to hang on to their playoff lives. They only played once on Wednesday but it was a pivotal game vs. Germany and they came up on the wrong side of the ledger. Hope is not lost though...just ask Team Einarson about being resilient. They can avoid #EliminationDay by picking up two key wins vs. #PACC rival Korea and Italy. Go 2-0 and all of a sudden you are 6-5, right back in the hunt and ready to take on Canada Friday morning in a possible de facto elimination game. Don't give up on this team quite yet curling fans. Next Up: KOR, BYE, ITA
10. South Korea - Team Kim (4-6, #10): The room for error is gone for the Olympic silver medal winners. Korea took a tough loss Wednesday morning to Denmark to put them in a do-or-die situation here on in. They checked off the first hurdle, knocking off #PACC rival Japan in an extra end. Next up: another #PACC rival in China. And then Sweden in the night cap. They have to run the table now. But imagine the revenge story of defeating Team Hasselborg Thursday night to keep your hopes alive. Even if they do though, and knock off Czech Republic in their finale, would a 7-6 record be good enough? It might still be one game short. Next Up: CHN, BYE, SWE
11. Czech Republic - Team Kubeskova (3-7, #13): Thank You Team Kubeskova for reminding everyone why we play the games and to always #ExpectTheUnexpected. The Czech's entered their Wednesday afternoon game vs. #TeamBellatrix on a 5-game losing streak. They were playing the last undefeated team in the competition. On paper, nobody game them a chance. #CzechMate! Kubeskova executed a great 10th end, coupled with her perfect final shot, to score 3 and pick up the #TeamUpset win of the tournament thus far. Unfortunately they were unable to keep the momentum going in the night cap vs. USA, often the case we see when a team upsets a higher seed and then falters in their next game. However, it was still a great W and a great story for the day. The Czech's are eliminated from the playoff hunt, even if it is not "official" yet. They do not even step on the ice on Thursday but could find the "Elimination" red rubber stamp on their name anyway. Tough break for this team too. They play no games on Thursday and finish the RR with 3 straight games on Friday, due to the rescheduling of the Sunday morning draw. Next Up: BYE, BYE, BYE
12. Japan - Team Yoshimura (2-7, #11): This might be the disappointment of the tournament. Japan sitting 2-7, basically eliminated, and just not able to find the wins this week. And this is a good team, as noted in the blog preview. You do not reach two #gsoc finals by "accident". They just never found their footing on the world championship ice. And it is not like they are playing bad. Look at their results on Wednesday. They lost in a double extra end to Germany and in an extra end to Korea. They played 23 ends of curling on Wednesday. What do they get for all their hard work? 2 losses and eliminated. I hope we see this team at another world championship though. I still believe they are a top challenger...even if the results have not landed their way this week. I would not underestimate them in their final games either. They could play spoiler. Watch out Canada and Sweden. Next Up: ITA, CAN, BYE
13. Italy - Team Constantini (2-8, #12): Oh Italy. I wish we had broadcast coverage this week so we could have seen a least some highlights of this Italian team. I think their potential is quite high. Sure they have struggled putting together a complete game and finding the wins but we have seen them challenge the top teams. They are just a team of two halves. Either they start strong and cannot keep up. Or they finish strong but are already too far back to mount a true comeback for the win. Young team though. Experience will be their gold medal from this week. I am interested to see how they do at the Olympic Qualification Event in December. Next Up: JPN, BYE, CHN
14. Estonia - Team Turmann (1-9, #14): Speaking of the #OQE, Estonia really used this event as the tune-up for the qualifier. They are making their world championship debut. Realistically we knew they would not be challenging for the title or even the playoffs. But they are gaining experience. They are competing on world championship ice. They are competing against the top teams around the world. They are learning from their games, win or lose. Similar to Italy, I am excited to see the future evolution of this team and the sport in Estonia. Lets hope this is the first of many future world championship appearances. And hey, if we learned anything from Wednesday results, they can still play spoiler and any team can beat any other team in any draw. Denmark, Japan and Switzerland should not overlook this team because of their record. Always be weary of the team playing with nothing to lose while you are still playing for your playoff lives. Next Up: BYE, BYE, DEN
No comments:
Post a Comment