POQE Preview

 #BetweenTheSheets: The Road To 2022 Continues

The Pre-Olympic Qualification Event hits the ice in Turkey

The Road to 2022 continues, this time taking a detour to Erzurum, Turkey.

Erzurum is located in Eastern Turkey with a population of more than 360,000 people.

The city is not unfamiliar with hosting large sporting events. Erzurum hosted the 2011 Winter Universiade, where some familiar names walked away with gold medals on the curling ice (Korea's Chang-min Kim and Scotland's Anna Sloan).

The city will now make their mark on the road to Beijing 2022 for the Pre-Olympic Qualification Event.

This is the first time a Pre-Olympic Qualification Event has been held for the sport of curling. 

We have seen similar style events in other sports. We have even seen similar qualification formats for curling but on a more national level rather than global.

Canada and USA use pre-qualification events and qualification events to determine their final competitors for their national Olympic curling trials.

But this is new for the World Curling Federation and the sport as a whole to help finalize the Olympic roster.

Was this triggered by a global pandemic known as COVID-19? Certainly.

Is it something we hope returns as an official Olympic qualification process in the future? Absolutely.

With world championship events now having qualification events, it only seems like a natural progression for the sport to adopt a similar structure for the Winter Olympics every 4 years.

For some nations it will mean a long qualification process. Nations will need to survive this event, advance to the Olympic Qualification Event and survive there once again to make the Olympic field.

But at least the path is a bit more clear. Nations know what they need to do at world championship events to try and earn either direct-entry into the Olympic field or face off in the Olympic Qualification Event.

For those nations who miss out on world championship qualification, their Olympic dreams are not over either. They have this added Pre-Olympic Qualification Event to keep the Olympic flame burning.

Yes it will be a longer path but at least there is still a path to travel.

There will be a total of 7 Olympic Qualification Event tickets handed out in Erzurum.

3 tickets to the #OQE2021, taking place in Leeuwarden, Netherlands this December, will be allocated to mixed doubles while 2 tickets will be handed out in both the men's and women's competition.

Before we jump on the ice in Turkey, here is a brief summary of where we stand with Olympic qualification for all 3 disciplines:

MEN

#Beijing2022: China, Sweden, Great Britain, Switzerland, ROC, Canada, USA

#OQE2021: Italy, Norway, Japan, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, South Korea

WOMEN

#Beijing2022: China, Switzerland, ROC, USA, Sweden, Canada, Denmark

#OQE2021: South Korea, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Czech Republic, Italy, Estonia, Netherlands

MIXED DOUBLES

#Beijing2022: China, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Czech Republic

#OQE2021: USA, Germany, ROC, New Zealand, Australia, Hungary, Japan, Finland, South Korea, Estonia, Spain, Netherlands

The Olympic Qualification Event will award the final 3 Olympic spots for the men and women and the final 2 spots for mixed doubles.

Take note, Scotland, England and Wales may compete individually on the World Curling Federation ice but, due to an agreement between the curling federations, only Scotland can earn Olympic qualification on behalf of Great Britain.

Who will join the #OQE2021 field in the Netherlands?

Lets tackle the mixed doubles, men's and women's events taking place in Turkey.

Of note, the mixed doubles event did start earlier this week. The predictions were made prior to the start of the event and were not changed based on early results.

Mixed doubles kicks off the competition with the men starting after MD wraps up and the men/women starting after mixed doubles concludes. This is partly due to some athletes competing in both disciplines.

#TourLifePredictions

Pre-Olympic Qualification Event 2021

Erzurum, Turkey

Mixed Doubles

Format: 16 team RR with 3 pools (2 pools of 5, 1 pool of 6). Top 3 in each pool advance to playoffs. 3 qualifiers for #OQE2021.

Nations Competing: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovakia (Pool A), Brazil, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Slovenia, Turkey (Pool B), Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Mexico, Chinese Taipei (Pool C)

#Fav:

This could be a breakthrough event for Turkey. Dilsat Yildiz and Ugurcan Karagoz will be pulling double duty (get the pun?!) on home ice. Both athletes will not only team up for mixed doubles qualification but also will skip their respective men's and women's teams seeking advancement to the Olympic Qualification Event as well.

When analyzing the MD field, Yildiz/Karagoz should be considered a strong favourite to advance. The duo has represented Turkey at the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 World Mixed Doubles Curling Championship, highlighted by an 8th place finish in 2018.

The duo is not new to qualification events either. They competed in the 2019 World Mixed Doubles Qualification Event, trying to earn a spot in the 2020 world championship event. They finished 6-0 in the RR, won their group and were defeated in the qualification finale vs. China.

Plus the home ice advantage could be a real deal here.

#TeamUpset:

There are a few #TeamUpset flag bearers to keep your eyes on.

Portugal will be making their debut, led by Canadian couple April Gale-Seixeiro and Steve Seixeiro. Both are no strangers to curling ice, doing work behind the sheet but now step on the ice to compete and create history for a developing curling nation. Pool A is fairly wide open so picking up a few wins and reaching the playoff bracket is not out of the question for the debut nation.

Kyrgyzstan is another nation many curling fans might not be familiar with. The Kyrgyz Republic is a nation located in Central Asia, surrounded by more familiar curling nations China and Kazakhstan. Expectations to advance are minimal but from a #growthesport lens, this is a slide in the right direction for future advancement for curling in the nation itself.

And of course we cannot forget fan favourite Nigeria. Broomzilla will be led by Curling Cares 2021 calendar models Susana Cole and Tijani Cole. The duo made history at the 2019 world championship, picking up their first international W in the RR vs. France. Can they make history once again and advance out of their pool? They are in one of the 5 nation pools so 2 wins, perhaps even 1 depending on a good LSD, could advance them to the playoff bracket. Nigeria, Brazil and Slovenia should be fighting for that final playoff spot.

#W2W4:

The playoff bracket is a bit different for this event. The 3 pool winners earn first-round bye, advancing directly to the qualification games. The second and third place teams will play one another with the winners advancing to the qualification games.

Barring upsets, which with a #NoLeadIsSafe mentality for the discipline is not unheard of, the pool winners should be Latvia, Turkey and Denmark.

Latvia's duo has competed in MD tour events around Europe while the Danish duo, a couple on and off the ice, will rely on team experience, specifically Jasmin Lander. Lander was a member of the #TeamUpset Danish team at the 2019 European Curling Championships, skipped by Mathilde Halse who finished 7th and earned a direct spot into the 2020 world championship (cancelled due to COVID-19 as we know). She may only be 21 years old but she has experience against top Euro competition and that could help here with the pressure of trying to keep Olympic dreams alive.

The big question is who are the other nations to fill out the bracket?

Pool A is fairly wide-open, as mentioned above with Portugal. Belarus should be a contender with Tatsiana Tarsunova previously representing the nation at the 2018 and 2019 world MD championship as well as the 2018 world mixed championship. Slovakia could also surprise here. Similar to Turkey, Slovakian duo Daniela Matulova and Juraj Gallo will perform double duty in Turkey competing together for MD and then skipping their national men's and women's teams later in the competition.

Pool B will see a fight for the coveted top spot between Turkey and Kazakhstan but Nigeria/Brazil/Slovenia will be in a fight for a historic playoff spot for whichever nation can survive from the trio.

Pool C, outside of Denmark, could be an open race as well. Chinese Taipei, Belgium and Austria should be fighting for the final 2 spots with Mexico as an outlier for #TeamUpset consideration and will be searching for their 1st MD win at an international competition. 

Playoff Qualifiers: Latvia, Turkey, Denmark, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Chinese Taipei, Portugal, Nigeria, Austria

#OQE2021 Qualifiers: Latvia, Turkey, Denmark

Men

Format: 17 team RR with 3 pools (2 pools of 6, 1 pool of 5). Top 2 in each pool advance to playoffs. 2 qualifiers for #OQE2021.

Nations Competing: Brazil, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Chinese Taipei, Turkey (Pool A), Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Nigeria, Slovenia (Pool B), Belgium, Spain, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia (Pool C) 

#Fav:

Turkey may have home ice advantage but experience is key and Czech Republic's Lukas Klima leads the way here.

Klima has competed at a world championship (2015) and numerous European Championships. He knows all about qualification as well, having battled out of the Euro B-Division to earn promotion to A-Division in 2019.

Klima has also been to Erzurum before. Remember the little message at the top of this blog post talking about the Turkish city hosting the 2011 Winter Universiade? Who won a bronze medal representing Czech Republic at the event when he was only 20 years old? Yup, Lukas Klima.

The disadvantage for him? He is competing in Pool B which, on paper, is the #PoolOfDeath at this competition.

Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary and Austria should all be considered contenders for the coveted 2 playoff spots. 2 will go home empty handed wondering what their odds would have been should they have been placed in either of the other, arguably "weaker", pools.

The curling draw gods did not do Klima, or his fellow Pool B competitors, any favours here. But survive the pool draw and, possibly, the path to the Netherlands might actually be easier than the path to reach the playoff bracket.

Funny how sports work sometimes?!

#TeamUpset:

Similar to the MD preview above, Nigeria and Kyrgyzstan are going to draw some eyes to see how they perform against more established, by comparison, curling nations. Both will remain #TeamUpset contending flag bearers at international events like this one for quite some time will they continue to #growthesport back home.

But, for this event, I would suggest Pool C shares the #TeamUpset flag bearing responsibilities.

This Pool C is going to be fun to watch. All 6 nations would not be considered "favourites" to advance to the #OQE2021; however, will the way the draw worked out two nations will advance to the playoff bracket. Once there, we know anything can happen.

Spain's Sergio Vez may be the name most familiar with curling fans, having skipped Spain to a historic silver medal win at the 2018 World Mixed Curling Championship. The 27 year old also won a bronze medal at the 2014 World Mixed Doubles Curling Championship. Vez's men's team has been a regular fixture at the Euro B-Division, having made the playoffs as recent as 2019 and 2017 but coming up short in earning promotion to the A-Division.

Speaking of Euro B-Division, Latvia, Belgium, Estonia and Slovakia are also regular B-Division competitors. All have dipped into C-Division in the past and battled back to B-Division promotion.

This competition is going to be a great opportunity for these nations to make a mark on the European and global curling ice by not only surviving the pool but having a shot at advancing further along the Olympic qualification process.

Would any of the nations within Pool C be considered favs? Probably not.

Would any of the nations within Pool C be considered a #TeamUpset if they claim one of the two golden tickets to Netherlands? 100%.

#W2W4:

This competition will have a slightly different playoff bracket compared to the MD and women's competition. There will be 6 playoff qualifiers but a HUGE advantage to the teams who are seeded #1 and #2 after the RR.

Those top seeds earn a bye directly to the Qualification Finals game, meaning a pool winner will drop to the Qualification Semifinals game. We could see two pool winners face off for a ticket to Netherlands.

Not only do you want to advance out of your pool but you want to go undefeated, if possible, and hope the other pools do not produce undefeated pool winners as well.

Quick disadvantage for Pool B, as mentioned above. On the flip side, the runner-up should land a spot in the 4 vs. 5 game meaning it is possible to see two teams from Pool B still advance to the #OQE2021.

Turkey may have the last laugh as the host nation has drawn the "easiest" pool for RR play, should go undefeated and could grab the #1 seed for the playoffs. A winner take all game on home ice to advance will favour Turkey, assuming they do not get tripped up in the RR.

As for Pool C? Take a guess. This is a wide open, fairly evenly matched, pool of contenders. I don't expect any nation here to go undefeated in the RR, meaning odds favour the pool winner dropping into the Qualification SF game possibly as the #3 seed. We could see a RR rematch in the 3 vs. 6 game.

Note, the 6 qualified teams will be re-seeded after the RR to properly determine #1 - #6 and fill out the playoff bracket. This is per the new World Curling Rules of Curling and Rules of Competition for playoff formats.

Tough to predict but an undefeated Turkey atop Pool A with a one-loss winner from Pool B should be enough to grab the top two seeds.

Of course, we could see 2 one-loss teams emerge from Pool B and find themselves in the #2 and #3 seed line if Pool C does not have a clear cut winner or produced a 2-loss pool winner.

Lots of possible permutations. Maybe check with Mr. Math (and #TwineTimeFam member) Matthew Hall for more info on the odds.

Playoff Qualifiers: Turkey, Czech Republic, Spain, Kazakhstan, Finland, Slovakia

#OQE2021 Qualifiers: Czech Republic, Finland

Women

Format: 10 team RR with 2 pools of 5. Top 2 in each pool advance to a modified page playoff. 2 qualifiers for #OQE2021.

Nations Competing: Spain, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Slovenia (Pool A), Austria, Brazil, Norway, Slovakia, Turkey (Pool B)

#Fav:

Latvia's Santa Blumberga-Berzina should be considered a strong favourite to claim one of the golden tickets in Turkey.

Blumberga-Berzina is coming off a successful curling season pre-pandemic. Competing as vice on Latvia's championship team, skipped by Iveta Stasa-Sarsune, finished 5th at the 2018 European Curling Championship, earning a spot in the 2019 World Women's Curling Championship. While the team may have finished with a 1-11 record, experience matters, especially in a competition like this one.

Blumberga-Berzina has also competed in 3 World Mixed Doubles Curling Championships, highlighted by an 8th place finish in 2017.

But it will not be a walk in the park. The blog already talked about Turkey and its home ice advantage, not to mention skip Dilsat Yildiz would have already competed in the MD competition here. Yildiz could enter the women's competition already with a ticket to Netherlands for MD. Of course she could enter the competition off a disappointing MD finish. Either way, she will have on-ice competition time ahead of most of her competition.

And if we are going to highlight experience, Norway's Marianne Rorvik would lead the way in this field and is worth a co-fav mention.

Rorvik competed at the 2006 Winter Olympics. She has competed in 10 European Championships and 4 world championships, which includes a silver medal win in 2004 and a bronze in 2005, playing with curling legend Dordi Nordby.

#TeamUpset:

Brazil's Anne Shibuya and Slovakia's Daniela Matulova will be considered longshot hopes to advance out of a stacked Pool B, led by co-favs Turkey and Norway.

Both will be competing in the MD competition here though so they will have a slight advantage, same as Yildiz, of stepping on the ice early and getting some competitive rocks under the slider.

Unfortunately the deck may be too stacked against both in drawing Yildiz/Rorvik but upsets happen and both could fly the flag.

If we want to find a #TeamUpset flag bearer who could reach the playoff bracket, check out Spain's Irantzu Garcia.

Garcia might be most well-known for winning bronze at the World Mixed Doubles Curling Championship in 2014 (with Spanish men's skip Vez). In fact she has competed in 10 world MD championships.

She has also competed in 5 Euro championships and has been instrumental in helped build Spanish curling from a debut nation to competing in the C-Division to being a regular competitor in the B-Division. 

Spain's women's team may not be considered a contender (yet!) but they should be considered a challenger in Pool A for the second playoff spot. #Fav Latvia should win the pool but the second spot could come down to Spain battling Hungary for that final spot.

#W2W4:

Once again we get a slightly different playoff bracket. The women's competition will see a modified page playoff format.

The two pool winners will advance to the 1 vs. 1 game where the winner will earn one of the tickets to #OQE2021. The loser will get a second-change qualification game though against the winner of the 2 vs. 2 game.

To say winning your group is an advantage would be an understatement. Winning your pool gives you two shots at one of the tickets. HUGE!

Will experience pay off for those nations like Latvia, Norway and Turkey?

Or will we see a surprise #TeamUpset emerge from a competing nation like Hungary, Austria, Spain or Slovakia?

Side note, congrats to Hungarian skip Vera Kalocsai-Van Dorp on her recent marriage. Yes, curling fans are probably familiar with the new hyphenated last name. Kalocsai married Dutch skip Jaap Van Dorp this year. I have been fortunate to meet Vera and hang out with both her and Jaap at events in the past and wish them both the best.

Extra pressure on Kalocsai-Van Dorp here? A win means she gets to compete in Netherlands alongside her husband in December to fight for a spot in the Olympics. How cool would that be? Even if they would be representing different nations.

Playoff Qualifiers: Latvia, Norway, Hungary, Turkey

#OQE2021 Qualifiers: Latvia, Turkey

#StayTuned

The blog returned earlier this week to discuss the world ranking confusion surrounding two different ranking systems and the unknown of trying to discover just who is the rightful owner of the #1 in the world title.

ICYMI, check it out HERE.

The blog will also return for a preview of the upcoming weekend of tour action, including the Autumn Gold Classic in Calgary which I will be attending in person and providing coverage of games via twitter.

A 3 blog post week folks. Dare we say we are slowly getting back to normal? Welcome back curling....