#BetweenTheRings: Men's Team Preview
Big 3 domination or #TeamUpset surprise?
The Big 3 vs. The World.
This seems to be the narrative everyone wants to talk about when dissecting the men's team event in Beijing.
Canada. Great Britain. Sweden.
For many, it appears a foregone conclusion these will be the 3 teams standing on the podium when the competition end on February 19.
But is this accurate?
We saw what Italy pulled off in the Mixed Doubles competition.
Are we building up a Top 3 narrative just in time for a dark horse team to emerge victorious and have the last laugh?
As this blog always states, #StayTuned.
We know the Big 3. But who are the main challengers? Who are the dark horse contenders?
And who could ultimately become the next #TeamUpset?
As the blog did with the Women's Team Preview, we follow the same slide path for the men.
Here is your quick Olympic men's curling #HIStory lesson:
- At the inaugural Winter Olympic Games in 1924 (hosted by Chamonix, France) curling was part of the original slate of sporting events, for the men anyway (women's curling debuted in 1998). In 1924 only 3 nations competed: hosts France, Great Britain and Sweden. Great Britain would win the first Olympic gold with Sweden claiming silver and France bronze. However the results of this event are not officially recognized by the International Olympic Committee (IOC).
- After being a demonstration sport at the 1932, 1988 and 1992 Winter Olympics, curling officially was welcomed back to the Olympic schedule for the 1998 Winter Olympics in Nagano, Japan with both the men and women competing. Since 1998, curling has been an official Olympic sport.
- Since 1998, six nations have qualified for every Winter Olympic men's field. Those nations include: Canada, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and USA. All six will once again field teams in Beijing.
- Host China will be making their 3rd Olympics appearance, previously competing in 2010 (8th) and 2014 (4th). Home nations have had mixed results with the men's team event. Canada won gold in 2010 but every other home nation has failed to reach the playoffs: Japan - 6th (1998), USA - 9th (2002), Italy - 7th (2006), Russia - 7th (2014) and Korea - 7th (2018). Can China break the home ice curse?
- Worth noting, Italy's performance in 2006 still has a result considered to be one of the greatest upsets in Olympic curling history when the home nation (skipped by 2022 skip Joel Retornaz) knocked off soon-to-be gold medal winner Canada (skipped by 2022 skip Brad Gushue). Bring on the Olympic rematch!
- In the seven Olympic appearances for the sport (since 1998), overall 16 nations have competed in the Olympic men's field at least once. There will be no nation making their Olympic debut in 2022. Nations with only one current appearance are Korea and New Zealand. Interesting to note though, New Zealand (2006 - 10th place) is the only nation to qualify for their sole Olympic appearance through actual qualification standards and not as automatic host. Finland, Japan and Russia have 2 appearances. Italy will be making their 3rd while China, as previously mentioned, will make their 4th.
- Canada leads the way in both most gold medals won (3) and total medals won (5) since 1998. The other two medals won for Canada were both silver medals (1998, 2002). Canada has reached the playoffs at every Olympic competition but are coming off a 4th place finish in 2018.
- The only other nations to find the top of the Olympic podium are Switzerland (1998), Norway (2002) and USA (2018).
- Switzerland has landed on the podium 4 times, winning 3 bronze medals (2002, 2010, 2018) to go with the gold won in 1998. Sweden has been on the podium twice since 1998, winning bronze in 2014 and silver in 2018. Both of those teams were skipped by Niklas Edin, who is back in 2022 looking to complete the Olympic collection.
- Other nations to land on the podium with one Olympic men's medal include: Finland (Silver - 2006) and Great Britain (Silver - 2014).
- The 2022 field is very similar to the 2018 field with 8 of the 10 nations returning. China, as hosts, replace Korea while ROC qualified over Japan.
- China will be the only #PACC nation competing in the field. A bit surprising considering the strong movement of the game within PACC nations like Japan and Korea. Both Japan and Korea failed to advance from the 2021 world championship and 2021 Olympics Qualification Event opportunities.
If Olympic Men's Curling becomes a Jeopardy category in the future, you are now fully equipped to dominate the competition. You're welcome!
Lets head over to the #IceCube and check out the field.
Take note, the Power Rankings below are based on the current World Curling Federation Men's World Rankings. The ranking number in parenthesis is the current world ranking of the team representing the nation.
#TwineTimePreview
Men's Team
Beijing National Aquatics Centre
Beijing, China
Competition Schedule: February 9 - 19, 2022
2018 Champion: USA
Format: 10 team RR with Top 4 advancing to playoffs with 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 SF matches.
#PowerRankings
1. Sweden (Team Edin- #5)
If any player in this field has redemption and revenge on their mind, it will be Niklas Edin.
Considered by many to be the GOAT of the sport, Edin is still missing that one piece of hardware to complete the perfect resume: Olympic gold.
The trajectory certainly points to 2022 being his year.
4th in 2010. Bronze in 2014. Silver in 2018. Gold in 2022?
The 5-time world champion is coming off accomplishing the #3peat at last year's world championship, not to mention being a 7-time Euro champ.
But there is the rub. He is not the current Euro champ. He was upended last November by Scotland's Team Mouat. Revenge in Beijing?
And we all know the story about his loss to USA's Team Shuster in PyeongChang. There have been movies created about it and the story is told all the time. Edin has to live through it and is reminded of it each time. Redemption in Beijing?
The team is 35-11 on the season but only 5-6 vs. his competition. Is the King being replaced atop the throne?
His career H2H is strong against most of his competitors. But watch out for Canada's Brad Gushue. Edin has had a tough time beating Gushue, trailing the H2H 7-21.
He has a 12-9 advantage over Great Britain's Bruce Mouat but Mouat won both of their games at the 2021 Euro's.
Even Italy's Joel Retornaz has had recent success regardless of previous H2H. Edin has the advantage overall 16-3 but they split their games at the 2021 Euro's.
Watch out for vice Oskar Eriksson. Eriksson made #HIStory by becoming the 1st curler to win 3 Olympic medals when he won bronze in MD. He can add to his historic haul winning another medal in the team competition while helping his skipper win his 3rd overall medal as well.
Keys To Success: Force Efficiency - Edin makes it very hard to score multiple points against him. This season he has a force efficiency ratio of 0.66, tied for 2nd best in the field with Norway (USA is first at 0.67). In PyeongChang, Edin only surrendered an end of 3 or more points twice. Once in the RR (last game vs. Norway) and of course the infamous 5-spot in the gold medal final vs. USA.
2. Switzerland (Team De Cruz - #10)
Yes, Switzerland is the #2 ranked nation in the world rankings. And yes, Team De Cruz is actually ranked #10 in the team world rankings.
And yes, having two different rankings is confusing. I get it...trust me, I get it!
But do not discredit Team De Cruz here and their seed. Remember they are the defending Olympic bronze medal winners. They have also won the past 3 world championship bronze medals (2018, 2019, 2021).
This team must be getting tired of looking at bronze though. Well winning a medal is always an accomplishment to celebrate, does it start creeping in your mind "Why can we not win a SF game?"
Team De Cruz is 33-14 on the season and 8-6 against the field.
De Cruz also owns a career H2H advantage over almost every team in this field, except Canada (7-13), Great Britain (9-11) and Sweden (18-25).
Notice those just happen to be the Big 3 everyone is talking about too.
If De Cruz is to make his move and make back-to-back Olympic podium finishes, and try to go one better, he is going to have to start knocking off those teams ranked ahead of him.
Keys To Success: Hammer Efficiency - Switzerland needs to convert when they have hammer. They need to score multiple points when they have the chance. Going into Beijing, their hammer efficiency is 0.39, one of the lowest in the field. We saw this as a concern in PyeongChang when the team was only able to score 3+ points in 6 ends overall. And they played 12 games. They need to score more!
3. Canada (Team Gushue - #2)
What can we say about Team Gushue? Without question one of the best teams in the world.
When watching this team play, it is almost mechanical in their operation. Like someone handed them a manual, said this is how you win at curling and they go out and make it happen.
Having been at the Canadian Olympic Curling Trials in November, I saw them play and from their opening rock to the last rock, they were the class of the field. They looked dialed in and unstoppable.
Skipper Brad Gushue and vice Mark Nichols have been here before, winning gold in 2006. They will provide great leadership for the Olympic rookie front end of Brett Gallant and Geoff Walker.
We know they are one of the best front end duos in the sport but this is the Olympics so you cannot blame them if they have a bit of butterflies in the stomach for the opening draw. Gallant will have Jocelyn Peterman in Beijing though as she competed with Team Jones for the women's team event.
Team Gushue is 24-2 on the season. Yes, only 2 losses! He is 2-0 vs. the competition, having only played Great Britain this season twice at the Boost National.
What is interesting though is Gushue has not really played any other team in this field over the past few years.
Only Mouat, De Cruz and Edin he has come across since 2019.
He hasn't played Retornaz or Walstad since the 2018 world championship. He last played Glukhov twice at the 2018 China Open (1-1). Even Shuster he has only played 3 times since the 2018 Winter Olympics, with Shuster winning the last two meetings.
Will lack of familiarity with the opposition hinder the results?
Keys To Success: Points Against - If this was poker we would say Gushue holds his cards VERY close to the chest. It is hard to get a read on him. And it is even harder to score against him. He is the class of the field when it comes to points against ratio this season. He is averaging 4.66 points against. The next closest team in this stat category is Edin and Mouat, tied at 5.22. If teams are going to beat him, they need to find a way to score multiple points with hammer. And those odds are not looking good.
4. USA (Team Shuster - #28)
The 2018 gold medal winners are back to #DefendTheIce.
In PyeongChang they were the ultimate #TeamUpset. They started slow. At times we saw, what looked to be, family bickering on the ice. And it looked like the train was falling off the track.
But the team regrouped. They learned to have better communication. And they started playing better.
They gained traction and confidence and all of a sudden they were shocking the world and winning Olympic gold.
Can lightning strike twice on Olympic ice? If last time was difficult to foresee happening, this time might appear more impossible.
The team does seem to thrive with the underdog role.
And lets give a shout out to John himself for being selected at the USA flag bearer in the Opening Ceremony. We know USA has a TON of great Olympic athletes. Having a curler be selected is a huge honour and really shows how big of a win it was to win gold 4 years ago for himself, his teammates and the nation.
Plus Plys! Vice Chris Plys just wrapped up MD competition and while he failed to win a medal, getting time on the ice in his 1st Olympics as a player (he was alternate in 2010 remember) will only serve him and his team better as the competition goes on.
Team Shuster is 22-7 this season but has not played any of his competition either. At least not this season.
Shuster does own career H2H advantages over some of his opposition though, namely Retornaz (11-2), Walstad (2-0) and Mouat (5-4).
And while he may be 3-8 lifetime vs. Gushue, he has won their 2 most recent meetings (even if they were back in 2018 and 2019).
Similar to Team Gushue, will the lack of games against these highly ranked teams hinder their success?
Keys To Success: #StealPants - Team Shuster has been rocking the #StealPants all season. They are picking the pockets of their opponents almost every time they step on the ice. Their steal efficiency rating is 0.32, 1st in the field this season. The next closest is Mouat at 0.31. They will need to pick some pockets along the way in Beijing if they hope to find success. Also remember, this stat is high but Shuster has not been playing the high ranked teams this season either.
5. Great Britain (Team Mouat - #1)
Heading into Beijing, Bruce Mouat was being talked about possibly setting the #IceCube on fire with potentially winning two gold medals.
With MD now behind him, just missing the podium with a 4th place finish, and the pressure (so to speak) off, can he go out and get back down to business like we saw inside the #IceBubble last season and at the European championships in November?
Sure we saw Mouat be a little off during the MD competition but remember he was making his Olympic debut, as the defending world champs and with a ton of eyes (and pressure) on him.
Mouat still remains one of the hottest curlers in the world right now and Team Mouat is undeniably the #1 ranked team in the world for a reason.
Silver at the 2021 world championship. Gold at the 2021 European's. And do not forget about those three straight #GSOC titles, not to mention reaching the final of #4 becoming suffering a tough loss (vs. Gushue).
The pressure is always high on the team with the highest ranking entering the Olympics. Not just in curling. Look at any sport being contested in Beijing. Look at the #1 ranked athlete/team in the world heading into the competition. It is not easy to defend your ranking.
Plus Team Mouat is trying to score the first Olympic gold in men's curling for Great Britain since the sport debut in 1928. Since 1998, GB has only been on the podium once (Silver - 2014).
The Scottish lads are 34-7 this season though and 8-5 vs. the field. Gushue (5-10), Edin (9-12) and Shuster (4-5) own the career H2H records but Mouat has bested Edin in their past 2 meetings and 4 of their last 5.
Mouat's record vs. De Cruz is 11-9 and was tied at 9 until Mouat won their 2 most recent meetings at the Boost National and the Euro's.
Keys To Success: Score, Score Score - Team Mouat has no problems putting points on the board. This season they are averaging 9.27 points per game, the most in the field. As mentioned above, they are T2nd on points against at 5.22. You know the old curling recipe of Take 2, Give 1? Pretty sure this is the game plan Mouat has been using...and using it to perfection. If they can continue to toss big points on the scoreboard and continue limiting the damage, expect a strong run to the podium for the GB team.
6. Norway (Team Walstad - #15)
Steffen Walstad may be an Olympic rookie but he has Olympic experience with him in his teammates.
Vice Torger Nergaard will be making his 6th (!!) Olympic appearance. Just let that sink in for a second. 6 Olympic appearances. That number equates to a span of 24 years.
And not only has Nergard been here before, he has won here before. He won gold in 2002 and silver in 2010. He is an Olympic champion and Olympic Pro.
Plus second Markus Hoiberg will be making his 3rd Olympics appearance, previously competing in 2014 and 2018. Ok, yes Hoiberg was an alternate in both of those appearances but an Olympian is an Olympian and Hoiberg is an Olympian.
Both Nergaard and Hoiberg's experience on Olympic ice will help balance rookies Walstad and lead Magnus Vagberg.
And speaking about alternates...how about Magnus Nedregotten? He is coming off a silver medal win in MD after winning bronze in 2018 in the same discipline. He has experience on this very ice, which will be beneficial info for his rookie skip.
Walstad is 41-18 on the season, including 5-9 vs. the field. All of those games were against fellow Euro competitors of course. But they have played more games this season (59) than any of their opposition.
Walstad owns career H2H advantages over only one skip in the field: Italy's Joel Retornaz (8-5).
Walstad has also never defeated Canada's Brad Gushue (0-3) or USA's John Shuster (0-2). To make a podium push, he will need to figure out a way to knock off the North American teams.
Remember this team is battle tested too. They had to fight for their ticket here, coming in first at the Olympic Qualification Event last December. That experience could help them.
Keys To Success: Stop The Steals - Team Walstad has the highest steal defense ratio in the field, sitting at 0.20. By comparison, the lowest steal defense ratio's belong to Canada/Great Britain (0.08) and Switzerland (0.10). They are getting their pockets picked way too often and will need to cut that down if they are to have success in Beijing. Whether it is a change of strategy or bailing out on a bad end earlier, they need to be aware of when they are in trouble and shift focus before it is too late.
7. Italy (Team Retornaz - #16)
No team will enter the team competition on a bigger high than Italy. Look what vice Amos Mosaner just accomplished!
He, alongside partner Stefania Constantini, secured Italy's first Olympic medal in curling...which just happens to be gold.
The duo also went undefeated inside the #IceCube meaning Mosaner has yet to take a loss on this Olympic ice. Remarkable!
Can #TeamUpset continue in the men's team competition?
We have been seeing the progression from Team Retornaz over the past few years now.
Look at the Euro results alone. Bronze in 2018, 4th in 2019 and Bronze in 2021.
Retornaz has also posted his best results at world championships the past two years, finishing 7th in 2019 and 2021. He is on the cusp of the elite.
He has been here before too. 2022 will mark his 3rd Olympics appearance, first debuting as the home team in 2006 and causing a stir with his huge W over Canada's Team Gushue in the RR.
Can he do it again in Beijing?
This team also had to navigate the #OQE in December to punch their ticket here. Will that help or hinder them?
On the season they own a 42-15 record with an even 7-7 record vs. the field.
The H2H career stats can look a bit misleading as Retornaz has the disadvantage for most comparisons. However, the growth this team has shown in the past 3 seasons is remarkable.
If we were to only compare results from 2019 on, the H2H comparisons become a lot more equal.
Keys To Success: Use The Force - Besides Team Shuster (0.67) and Team Edin (0.66), Retornaz is one of the best teams are forcing teams to a single point when they have hammer. Their force efficiency ratio is 0.63. They do not get sucked into a complex game when they do not have hammer. And the Gentle Giant Mosaner can bail them out when needed with his vice stones. They need to capitalize on his ability combined with channeling their inner Yoda to keep games close and give themselves a chance late.
8. ROC (Team Glukhov - #42)
This is going to be a very interesting team to watch in Beijing. Which team shows up?
The one who shocked the world with their play at the 2021 world championship, finished second in the RR with an 11-2 record and finishing 4th overall or the team who has struggled at the past 2 European championships, needing to fight back from Euro-B to reclaim their spot in the Euro-A for 2022?
This team has the ability to beat anyone they go up against. They also have the ability to lose a majority of their games.
They have some pressure on them as well. 2022 marks only the second time Russia has competed in the men's team competition and the first time they actually qualified. In 2018 they qualified as the host nation.
Glukhov is 25-10 this season. They have not played any of their competitors this season either.
If we look back to the 2021 world championships however, they did defeat China, Denmark, Italy, Norway, Scotland and USA. They also defeated Canada's Team Bottcher.
We know they can beat these higher ranked teams. But can they do it on the Olympic ice with the world watching and the pressure to represent ROC?
Keys To Success: Keep The Jekyll, Kill The Hyde - Both can show up on the ice during the competition for ROC. Team Glukhov needs to find the great doctor in themselves to stay calm and have the confidence in knowing they can win these games. But if the evil Mr. Hyde comes calling, and the team starts to struggle to gain momentum, they need to figure out how to put Mr. Hyde to rest. Two sides to the same coin. Which side triumphs could determine how this team performs in the #IceCube.
9. Denmark (Team Krause - #69)
If we start to consider Italy no longer a #TeamUpset due to recent strong showing internationally, perhaps we can pass the flag over to Denmark and Team Krause.
Let's be real. I don't think many people expected Team Krause to be competing in Beijing. But have they been surprising the curling world for a few seasons now. And maybe we should start to accept the Expect the Unexpected from the Danes.
The 2019 European championships became the breakout performance for the team.
In 2018 Denmark was competing in the Euro-B division. When they won the B and earned promotion for 2019, many were wondering how long their promotion would last.
Enter Helsingborg, Sweden. The Danes not only stated they are back but they made a run into the playoffs with a 5-4 RR record and finished in 4h place overall, including victories over Retornaz and Glukhov.
We recently saw them compete at the 2021 world championship inside the #IceBubble where they struggled to a 3-10 record (9th place) but one of those victories was against De Cruz.
They are the last team to punch their ticket into this field, having to defeat Czech Republic in the final qualification game at the #OQE.
They are only 9-9 on the season, which includes 4-5 at the 2021 Euro's and 5-4 record at #OQE.
They are 0-5 vs. their competition. They do own the H2H advantage over Glukhov (1-0, 2019 Euro).
If we look at the career H2H though for Krause, the record stands 4-11.
Keys To Success: Fly The Flag - Denmark needs to hit the ice proudly waving the Danish flag and embrace the #TeamUpset motto. They will be the underdog in almost every game (vs China could be considered a toss up for some). Use the underdog role to your advantage. When you can play freely with little expectation but know every W will be considered a surprise, sometimes the no pressure game plan can lead to great success. We saw it at the 2019 Euro's (I saw it first hand as I was there). Embrace the role, play your game and let the rocks spin where they may.
10. China (Team Ma - #128)
China's Team Ma may look like an unknown to some but, for the most part, they are Team Qiang.
Zou Qiang is now playing vice and Ma Xiuyue will take over skipping duties.
Ma is the new addition to this team. We saw the remainder of the team represent China under Qiang at the 2021 world championship, where the team finished in last place with a 2-11 record. One of those wins did come against Beijing opposition Denmark though.
Qiang has international experience. He has represented China at 4 world championships and 5 #PACC.
He is a #PACC champion (2014) and has won 3 #PACC silver (2016, 2017, 2018) medals and 1 #PACC bronze (2019).
The team, with Qiang as skip and without Ma, is listed as having a 2-11 record this season.
But this is still a bit of an unknown team for the majority of the competition here.
Whether that is an advantage for the home nation squad or not, time will tell.
Keys To Success: Home Ice Advantage - Similar to what was said in the women's team preview with China's Team Han, Team Ma needs to try and ride the wave of support coming from the stands. They will be considerable underdogs against a very experienced field. But even an underdog finds a few bones along the way. Based on past Olympic men's team final standings, home teams are averaging close to a 7th place finish. If Team Ma can even replicate that result, it should be considered a successful showing for China.
#TwineTimePredictions
As stated in the opening paragraph of this post, can any of the 7 teams in this field stop the Big 3?
Canada, Great Britain and Sweden seem to be the overwhelming favourites to land on the podium.
The only debate by many appears to be which medal will be won by which country.
But this is the Olympics and one thing we have learned year after year, regardless of sport, is to Expect The Unexpected at the Olympics.
Look at curling alone.
Who predicted USA would win the men's team event in 2018?
Who predicted Italy would win the mixed doubles event in 2022?
Who even predicted Mike Harris would be Team Canada back in 1998?
Or even Switzerland's Patrick Hurlimann would win gold in 1998 with a field that included Sweden's Peja Lindholm, Norway's Eigil Ramsfjell and Germany's Andy Kapp?
Finland's Markku Uusipaavalniemi actually finished 1st in the RR at the 2006 games with a 7-2 record and ended up winning silver against a field including Great Britain's David Murdoch, Norway's Pal Trulsen, Lindholm and Kapp.
No disrespect to any of those players and teams at all. They are all great athletes but were they the favourites heading into the competition?
The point being, curling has showed us time and time again upsets happen in sports.
The Big 3 in Beijing may be the overwhelming favourites on paper but we play the games for a reason folks.
Anyone can be anyone at anytime. Could we see another #TeamUpset chapter in the men's team event?
Of course now is where I reveal my predictions and after all that chatter just now, you are going to be perhaps slightly disappointed. 😂
Projected Standings
1. Canada 2. Great Britain 3. Sweden 4. Italy 5. Switzerland 6. Norway 7. USA 8. ROC 9. Denmark 10. China
Qualifiers
Qualifiers
Canada, Great Britain, Sweden, Italy
Semifinals
Canada def. Italy
Sweden def. Great Britain
Bronze Medal
Great Britain (Team Mouat) def. Italy (Team Retornaz)
#Beijing2022 GOLD MEDAL
Sweden (Team Edin) def. Canada (Team Gushue)
#TwineTime Medal Picks
Gold - Sweden
Silver - Canada
Bronze - Great Britain
What say you rockheads? Agree? Disagree?
Do you think a #TeamUpset can emerge or are the Big 3 just too strong?
Who do YOU think will land on the podium in Beijing? Take home the gold medal?
ICYMI, check out the #Beijing2022 Women's Team Preview blog post HERE.
As has been said in the MD Preview and Women's Team Preview, it is worth stating once again: To the athletes competing in Beijing, good luck and good curling...the Olympic ice is yours!
And to all the fans of the sport watching from home, enjoy, have fun, stay safe and be nice to one another.
No comments:
Post a Comment