#PowerRankings W10

#BetweenTheSheets: Conception Bay Chase Continues

Is the #gsoc qualification a game best fit for Tom and Jerry?

The game is afoot now. The chase is on. Tom pulling out all the stops trying to catch Jerry. Jerry being elusive and always one step ahead in avoiding the catch. Will Tom ever catch Jerry? Doesn't seem likely does it?

The cartoon game of cat and mouse is quite symbolic to the real-life game of Grand Slam of Curling qualification. The "next level" teams, or the Tom's of the tour, are trying to chase down the "elite" teams, or the Jerry's, sitting comfy in their #gsoc hacks. It was the instinctual reaction for Tom to want to catch Jerry as it is an instinctual reaction in sports for teams wanting to knock off those at the top.

In curling, does Tom ever catch Jerry?


Curling teams have goals they look to achieve during a season. Win a #wct event perhaps? Qualify for provincial playdowns. Win a provincial/territorial title. Qualify for the Brier/Scotties. Win a national championship. Win a world title. The regular accomplishments we would see among many sports. We also have the added element of the Grand Slam of Curling. Teams also add into their goals wanting to qualify for each of the 7 #gsoc events and, ultimately, win one or more.

And there lies the rub. If you remove the #gsoc element into the season goals, the other goals really come down to one simple element of sport: win! You want to play in the Brier or Scotties? Win your provincial/territorial championship. You want to represent Team Canada? Win the Brier/Scotties. You want to call yourself a world champion? Win a world championship event. Win, win, win and you are in, in, in. Simple as that!

For the #gsoc though it is not as black and white. For many teams it is more grey, like poor Tom. You cannot just do the win and in argument. You can enter a few #wct events and maybe even win a few but it does not instantly transform into the coveted "golden ticket" invite to a #gsoc event. The chase is a little more complex and the ticket is a bit more elusive than that.

Unless you are a Jerry of course. Jerry runs the house. Sure Tom may be bigger but Jerry has the instinct advantage. He doesn't get caught. Tom never gets his meal. Jerry has the last laugh. Similar to what we see with a few teams in the #gsoc world. For the most part we see the same 8 to 10 teams every slam. These teams are the Jerry's of our sport. They have the control and never seem to get caught. They can have an off-day or two and Tom may get close but they will still never get caught. The Edin's, Gushue's, Koe's, Homan's and Jones' of the curling world are the ultimate Jerry. And hey why not, they are the collection of the best in the world. We want to see the best of the best compete at the slams and these "Jerry's" are the drivers for #gsoc success. Nobody is debating that, including this blog (contrary to a few opinions of some who seem to see my opinions in a different light).

But every once and awhile the kids at home watching the Saturday morning cartoon want to see Tom get his wish and capture Jerry. Curling fans are no different. Every once and awhile we want to see a few fresh faces on the #gsoc ice. Hey we love the Howard's, Ulsrud's, Muirhead's of the world too but sometimes we want to see those Tom's catch them...even if for just a brief moment. Seeing the Robertson's, Wrana's, Schwaller's make the catch at least once per episode adds a bit more drama to the show does it not?

The new curling season brings a renewed season of Tom & Jerry. The chase is on. Tom lays out a plot to catch Jerry. Jerry sidesteps the plot and avoids the dreaded claws of his captor. And the game resumes. Week in and week out. Some episodes Tom catches Jerry, even for a brief moment. We see this at the #gsoc where occasionally a Tom, say Darcy Robertson or Yannick Schwaller or Ross Paterson, catches a Jerry, say Thomas Ulsrud or John Shuster or Jamie Sinclair, and steals the spotlight of the episode.

The question is can Tom hold onto Jerry long enough to last the entire episode or is Jerry able to outplay his competition and live to see another day? This is why the #TwineTime blog has proposed the new ranking and tour system. Could we see a few more Tom's catch their prey if the current system receives a slight modification? Could Tom have caught Jerry a few more times during a season if the house was a more level-playing field? It sure seemed like Jerry knew the layout of the house and location of those tables and lamps better than Tom didn't it?

With the next slam, Tour Challenge, a mere week or so away and the qualification cut off for the fourth slam, the Boost National, coming next week the chase is on for a spot in Conception Bay. Can a few Tom's catch a few Jerry's?

Speaking of the Tom's and Jerry's of the ice, how did they perform this past weekend? Did the Jerry's continue to build some ground on the Tom's? Did a few Tom's make up some ground and pull closer to catching those elusive Jerry's? You know what this means? Time for the #GunnerRunback!

#GunnerRunback

• There were #MastersMilestoneMoments in Truro, N.S. this weekend when the #CanadianBeefMasters released its final rock for the opening #gsoc major of the season. For the men, John Epping completed the career major when his team defeated Kevin Koe in the final. Epping has won 4 #gsoc titles, all of them majors. Not to be outdone, Epping new second Brent Laing tied Glenn Howard for second all-time on the slams won table picking up title #16! Laing and Howard trail leader Kevin Martin, who won 18. International flavour dominated the SF round with Sweden's Niklas Edin and Scotland's Bruce Mouat reaching the Final 4. For the women, #SwedishVikings Team Hasselborg made it 2-for-2 this season when they claimed their second #gsoc title knocking off three-time Masters champ Rachel Homan in the final. Hasselborg is treading on elite ice right now knocking on history's door winning the opening slams of the season. Could she replicate or better Team Homan's 2015 campaign when they almost completed the calendar slam? So far this season she is perfect, competing in 3 events and winning 3 titles. The Alberta duo of Casey Scheidegger and Chelsea Carey rounded out the Top 4.
• The #OilHeritageClassic in Sarnia saw #TwineTime predicted #TeamUpset John Willsey emerge victorious over USA's Mark Fenner. Willsey is quickly becoming a team to Watch Out For in Ontario this season folks. As for Fenner, this is #TeamYoungBucks 3rd final of the season and 3rd finals loss. Welcome back star Mark Bice and Pat Ferris made the SF.
• In Whitby, the women competed at the #GordCarrollCurlingClassic with Toronto's Chelsea Brandwood defeating Korea's Un-Chi Gim in the final. Brandwood's victory ensured the title would stay in the home province of Ontario once again, now 9 successive tournament wins for the province. Defending Ontario Scotties champ Hollie Duncan and the new-look Julie Tippin reached the SF.
• At the #KamloopsCrownofCurling, defending B.C. champion Sean Geall put his fellow provincial competitors on notice he is not looking to give up his title anytime soon when he navigated through a mostly B.C.-led field to pick up the championship, defeating Josh Barry in the final. The only non-B.C. teams in the field, Japan's Team Matsumura and Team Usui, reached the SF. For the women, Sarah Wark made it back-to-back championship Sunday's when she took home the championship defeating Kim Slattery. Wark's victory comes off the heels of her championship win in Abbotsford last weekend. Corryn Brown and Brette Richards rounded out the playoff bracket.
• Across the pond in Tukums, Latvia, European teams competed at the #LatviaInternational. For the men, Finland's Willie Makela secured the title over Estonia's Harri Lill. For Makela, the win continues a strong start to the season following his QF appearance in Tallinn. For Lill, the result is a build-up for next month's European Championships where Lill will represent home nation Estonia in the B-Division. The women's competition saw another Finnish team in the final; however, they would come up short in the championship. Scotland's Maggie Wilson defeated Oona Kauste to claim the title. The home nation had plenty to cheer for though with two Latvian women's teams reaching the SF, led by Ieva Rudzite and Elena Kapostina.

The opening major of the season yields big points for the winners (2000 to be exact) but also large point grabs for those who reach the playoff round (1200, 720, 360). Even a W during the RR nets a team 20 points on rankings mountain.

With a grand slam major wrapping up and a #Tour500 event in Ontario, combined with numerous #Tour250 events, the jostling for position on the mountain is getting closer and closer and more competitive by the week. Who reigns Kings and Queens of the Mountain this week? I am sure you can probably take a good guess here.

#PowerRankings

MEN

1. Team Epping - 3745 (LW: 1)
2. Team Edin - 2380 (3)
3. Team Koe - 1935 (NR)
4. Team McDonald - 1765 (2)
5. Team De Cruz - 1660 (4)

Hon. Mention: Team Carruthers, Team Bottcher, Team Gushue, Team Jacobs, Team Mouat


WOMEN

1. Team Hasselborg - 3750 (LW: 3)
2. Team Einarson - 2650 (1)
3. Team Kovaleva - 1980 (2)
4. Team Homan - 1900 (NR)
5. Team Carey - 1882 (HM)

Hon. Mention: Team J. Jones, Team Scheidegger, Team Tirinzoni, Team Yoshimura, Team Wrana


No surprise our #1 ranked men's and women's teams are also the opening major champions for the season. What is interesting is we are into Week 10 on tour on Team Epping has been ranked #1 on the #TwineTime rankings for 7 straight weeks. This weekend's victory marked the second title of the season for Epping, following up his #Tour1000 title at the Shorty Jenkins. Hasselborg's victory continues her quest for perfection this season as she will enter the month of November a perfect 3-for-3 in tournament wins and ascends to the top of the mountain for the first time this season.

How does the #TwineTime rankings stack up against the #OOM though? Well we know collectively it is a tough comparison given the #OOM takes previous year's results into consideration so the comparison unfortunately doesn't work (for this year at least). But what if we look at the YTD rankings? Does the #TwineTime proposed system reflect a similar result to the #OOM?

For the men, the #OOM Top 5 are: Epping, Koe, Edin, Walstad, De Cruz. Pretty close as 4 of the Top 5 are the same (minus some being in a different order). For the women, the Top 5 looks like this on the #OOM standings: Einarson, Hasselborg, Tirinzoni, Homan, Kovaleva. Again, 4 of the Top 5 are on both ranking models (and again a few minor differences with order).

This creates a double-edged argument perhaps. Some could say the #OOM system for YTD works just fine and why change anything? Some could argue the #TwineTime proposed system, argued already by some as being ridiculous, actually acts very similar to the current system and could be a valid way of re-structuring the tour. This blog's take? It is Year 1 of a proposed system. Lets really do a comparison a year from now and see how they both break-down to truly have a full discussion. For now, the #TwineTime system is supporting a strong case for the tiered event structure though.

#TheChase

Lets get to Tom & Jerry. Last week's #PowerRankings blog post compared the Top 20 men's and women's rankings between the #OOM and #TwineTime to see which teams would qualify for the #BoostNational. With the results this weekend, have the standings changed?

            #TwineTime                                                  #OOM

1. Team Epping (1)                                       Team Edin (1)
2. Team Edin (3)                                            Team Gushue (2)
3. Team Koe (15)                                           Team Koe (3)
4. Team McDonald (2)                                  Team Mouat (6)
5. Team De Cruz (4)                                      Team Carruthers (4)
6. Team Carruthers (5)                                   Team Jacobs (5)
7. Team Bottcher (6)                                      Team Epping (7)
8. Team Gushue (9)                                        Team De Cruz (10)
9. Team Jacobs (7)                                         Team Bottcher (8)
10. Team Mouat (NR)                                      Team Gunnlaugson (9)
11. Team Schwaller (8)                                    Team Walstad (11)
12. Team Dunstone (18)                                   Team Howard (12)
13. Team Walstad (10)                                      Team Ulsrud (15)
14. Team Willsey (NR)                                     Team Schwaller (13)
15. Team S. Thompson (11)                              Team Shuster (14)
16. Team Howard (12)                                      Team Dunstone (16)
17. Team Paterson (NR)                                    Team McDonald (18)
18. Team Sturmay (13)                                      Team Calvert (17)
19. Team Matsumura (19)                                 Team Paterson (19)
20. Team Ulsrud (14)                                         Team Ruohonen (20)

Remember of course the Top 14 earn an invite to Conception Bay, with the 15th team in the field being a sponsor's exemption (usually reserved for a local/host team). For the most part the field would be very similar using either ranking system. The main differences are #TwineTime would hand an invite to Team McDonald, Team Dunstone and, due to their win this weekend, Team Willsey. The #OOM system would actually invite Team Gunnlaugson, Team Howard and Team Ulsrud.

The #TwineTime case may be strong here. All three of the #TwineTime invites have collected tour titles this season: McDonald (Gatineau), Dunstone (Vernon) and Willsey (Stroud, Sarnia). Plus Dunstone did compete at the Masters and reached the QF. In comparison, again with all due respect of course to the teams here, Gunnlaugson and Howard have failed to win an event this season. Howard's best results were a SF at the Shorty Jenkins and a QF at the Canad Inns while Gunner's best results were QF finishes at the Shorty Jenkins and Canad Inns. Plus both competed at the Masters this weekend and went a combined 1-7. Further proof it is VERY difficult to play your way OUT of the #gsoc field? McDonald has qualified in 6 of 6 tour events played while Dunstone is 5 of 6. Ulsrud is the tough call here as he has played a reduced schedule thus far, playing only 3 events but picking up a title Week 1 in Basel. Interesting to note though Ulsrud actually went up in the #OOM rankings this week to #13 from #15 without stepping on the ice. Similar for De Cruz, who moves to #8 from #10. Meanwhile Schwaller competed in the slam and actually lost out on the rankings, dropping from #13 to #14 while Dunstone reached the QF and remains ranked #16. At least the #TwineTime system rewards or punishes based on recent results.

What about the women? Who stayed above the cut line and who finds themselves on the bubble?

          #TwineTime                                                   #OOM

1. Team Hasselborg (3)                            Team Hasselborg (1)
2. Team Einarson (1)                                Team J. Jones (2)
3. Team Kovaleva (2)                               Team Homan (3)
4. Team Homan (15)                                 Team Einarson (4)
5. Team Carey (8)                                     Team Fleury (6)
6. Team J. Jones (7)                                   Team Fujisawa (9)
7. Team Scheidegger (12)                         Team Tirinzoni (5)
8. Team Tirinzoni (4)                                 Team Walker (7)
9. Team Yoshimura (5)                              Team Muirhead (8)
10. Team Wrana (6)                                     Team Sinclair (10)
11. Team Robertson (11)                             Team Carey (18)
12. Team Rocque (9)                                    Team Scheidegger (11)
13. Team Fleury (NR)                                  Team Roth (13)
14. Team Sidorova (10)                               Team Robertson (12)
15. Team Gim (17)                                       Team Wrana (16)
16. Team Fujisawa (14)                                Team Kim (14)
17. Team Hegner (13)                                  Team Sidorova (15)
18. Team C. Brown (18)                              Team Flaxey (17)
19. Team Stern (16)                                     Team Yoshimura (19)
20. Team Gushulak (19)                               Team Kovaleva (NR)

Similar to last week we have way more discrepancies on the women's ranking comparison. Here we have 5 differences. #OOM has invites going out to: Team Fujisawa, Team Walker, Team Muirhead, Team Sinclair and Team Roth. #TwineTime would have invites sent to: Team Kovaleva, Team Yoshimura, Team Wrana, Team Rocque and Team Sidorova. Now Wrana and Sidorova do fall close to the cut line and are right on the #OOM bubble, similar to Fujisawa for #TwineTime.

The biggest difference seems to be with Kovaleva for #TwineTime and Sinclair/Roth for #OOM. Kovaleva has 2 tour titles this season (China, Vernon) and has qualified in 4 of 4 tour events. Kovaleva also won a Best-of-7 Russian challenger last weekend vs. Team Sidorova to represent Russia at the upcoming European Championships. As for Sinclair and Roth, they competed at the Masters this weekend going a combined 3-5 with Roth losing a TB. Sinclair has qualified in 1 of 6 tour events this season (QF Saskatoon) while Roth has failed to qualify in 3 tour events, including both slams (similar to Sinclair). Does anyone really believe, right now, Roth and/or Sinclair are more deserving of a #gsoc invite over Kovaleva?  Or even over Wrana? Yoshimura? Even Sidorova has put together a more solid year than both.

Again, the #TwineTime model brings more movement in the rankings and can reward or punish based on recent results. LOTS of movement among the #TwineTime rankings where subtle movements on the #OOM. Team Carey is the ultimate winner under both models, rewarded for her SF finish in Truro. But what about Robertson? She reached the QF and actually drops in the rankings, moving to #14 from #12, while Roth (l. TB in Truro) and Sinclair (DNQ in Truro) maintain their ranking position of #13 and #10 respectfully. The #TwineTime system also shows lack of play can haunt you, just ask Team Yoshimura, Team Wrana and Team Rocque, who all drop this week. And Tirinzoni is punished on both rankings for going winless in Truro.

One outlier would be Team Muirhead. Similar as Team Ulsrud above, it is worth admitting the #TwineTime system does work against them due to inactivity in comparison to the competition. Muirhead has only played 3 tour events this season but did reach the QF in both #Tour1000 events (Stockhom, Portage) against strong fields. The lack of tour play does hurt them under this system where, on paper, they should be in the slam invite conversation. As a counter, I would say if the #TwineTime system was in play the guess-timate would be Team Muirhead would have scheduled an extra tour event or two this season to earn more ranking points to qualify. The light tour season thus far is also a result of leaving skipper Eve Muirhead more recovery time from off-season surgery.

#StayTuned

The final cut-off date for #BoostNational qualification is next Monday November 5. The Top 14 teams on the #OOM will receive invite cards to participate in Conception Bay, NL. Of course should a team decline their invite the next ranked team would take their spot. As seen above, teams sitting on the bubble will need to compete this weekend in hopes of moving up while those above the cut-line need to hope they stay in the green after the weekend rocks come to a stop in the house.

Teams also have one more weekend of #wct action to try and earn some points towards direct qualification. For the women we see big events this upcoming weekend in Morris, MB for the DEKALB Superspiel (#Tour1000) and in Kemptville, ON for the Royal LePage Women's Fall Classic (#Tour500). There will also be 2 #Tour250 events in Halifax and Kelowna.

The men will also compete in Morris (#Tour1000) in addition to the Mayflower Cash Spiel (#Tour500) in Halifax and 3 #Tour250 events in Kelowna, Prague and Bern.

#TwineTime will bring you a preview of all these events, including predictions, later in the week.

ALSO, get ready to welcome the newest member of the #TwineTimeFam into your loving and accepting arms this week rock heads and stoners. Any guesses as to who? Hint? This person competed this past weekend in Truro?!