#BetweenTheSheets: Beware Power Ranking Mountain
The climb is nice but the fall can be painful
There was SO MUCH chatter before the Scotties about format and qualification or ice rust for lack of playing and this, that and the other. But when the first rock was thrown Friday night, we threw all of that over the bumper and just focused on the action on the ice.
And how great did that feel? At times you sit on your couch, grab a choice beverage and for a few hours each day you almost forget there is a pandemic happening all around us.
Yes there are no fans in the stands. Yes it is quiet in the arena. But we have live action curling to watch and teams to cheer for. Hello normalcy, we have missed yee!
You know what is also part of the "normal" curling world? #PowerRankings!!!!!!
The #STOH2021 Preview used the #TwineTime rankings formula to determine the pre-event seedings.
We have a few draws under the slider now so time to re-evaluate those seedings with Updated Power Rankings.
Yes, this is subjective. So bring on your comments at the end of the post or via social media. The "normalcy" of a blogger is to have people agree and disagree with your content.
These Power Rankings are based on results through the conclusion of Draw 9 (Monday night).
Lets go....
#PowerRankings
1. #TeamCanada - Team Einarson (LR: 2): The defending champs are rolling along, continuing right where they left off last time we saw them on Scotties ice. How dominant have they been? When you look at their Points For/Points Against ratio, it is greater than 2:1. When they score 2, they give up 1 and then score 2. Pretty much the textbook on how to win this event.
2. #CurlON - Team Homan (4): They have not been the dominant team of old when they were winning their Canadian championships but they are still winning....and that is all that matters. They are grinding out wins, see their W over Alberta on Sunday night as a great example. When you don't need to be perfect yet still rock a perfect record, you cannot be too disappointed. Third straight championship final on the horizon? Bring on that 2020 Scotties final rematch between undefeated teams as the final RR game on Thursday afternoon.
3. #Labelleprovince - Team St-Georges (11): The Power of Pool B....comes from Quebec. Who saw that coming? In the preview post, I mentioned how much I like this team and expected some #TeamUpset results but did not expect them sitting 3-1 atop their pool after Monday. And look at their schedule. They have played MB, BC, PEI, WC1. Hmmm, weren't those the 4 teams everyone said would advance out of this pool? And Quebec is sitting 3-1. They could finish with 1 loss and top Pool B. What would that do for the argument of wanting to eliminate the Scotties/Brier format for those "elite" teams? Traditionalists should be cheering for this team to go far.
4. #WC1 - Team Fleuray (1): Head to head matters remember. As such, WC1's loss to Quebec Monday afternoon not only dropped them from the undefeated ranks but drops them all the way down to #4 on the rankings, behind the team that beat them. Will they stay here? Doubt it! They are curling 81% as a team and Super Skipper Chelsea Carey looks like 2017/2019 Chelsea Carey. They should advance to the Champ Pool with only 1 loss.
5. #TheIslanders - Team Birt (9): The Top 2 come from Pool A but bring on the Pool B challengers. Quebec and WC1 are looking good but do not count out PEI. Look, PEI has not really hit their full stride or looked at their best. At one point skip Suzanne Birt was curling 63% yet they were 2-1. It doesn't matter how you win, just win! If they can "win ugly" imagine what happens when they start "winning pretty". Still a dangerous dark horse contender.
6. #TeamGreen - Team Anderson (10): Another Pool B team? Why not? The Pool B standings are a log jam as we know and Sherry Anderson has helped contribute to that cluster. She should have beat PEI in their opener. Many expected her to lose to Manitoba but they won. What should we expect next? Expect the Unexpected! A finish of 6-2 to 5-3 to 4-4 all seem possible. But they are trending upwards on this winning streak.
7. #ABStrong - Team Walker (5): Oh Alberta, had they won said game vs. Ontario, they would be sitting higher. Of course then they followed it up with another loss to WC3 Monday night, which dropped them from #3 in these rankings to where they sit now. Deja vu? Last year the team started 3-0 then lost their next 4 and were eliminated. Now, they started 3-0 and have lost their last two. Yikes! However, on the positive, this team does look stronger and more confident compared to last year. There is no "sophomore slump" here and, if they can survive the Pool of Death (Pool A) with only these 2 losses, they will still be in good shape for the playoffs. The game is there. The sports psychology is now the question mark.
8. #BuffaloHunt - Team Jones (3): Their competition is trending upwards which means they must be trending down. Jennifer has not looked like Jennifer. The team struggles one game, is dominant the next. Consistency is the weakness right now. As a team they are curling 80%, T2nd overall. Will they miss the Champ Pool? Probably not. But they need to go on a winning streak now. 2 losses is not ideal if you want to make the playoffs. Remember, this is also Jennifer Jones. We have seen this before. Jones struggles at an event early and then flips a switch, goes on a winning streak and takes home the title. Eyebrow raise for the current struggles but writing this team off is a big mistake....for now.
9. #PolarPower - Team Galusha (12): What a roller coaster the #IceBubble has been thus far for Team Galusha. They start their competition with an "upset" loss to a rookie Northern Ontario squad. Then vice Jo-Ann Rizzo comes down with a food poisoning, causing them to reschedule their game vs. Canada to Monday morning. And in and around those two games were two nice wins, including a big W over WC2 Team Zacharias. But, through it all, they sit 2-2 and right in the hunt for the final Champ Pool berth out of Pool A. And I think the team would be very happy if you told them pre-event they would be 2-2 heading into Tuesday. Could this FINALLY be the year for Kerry Galusha to reach the Champ Pool and make #HERstory for her resume? They control their fate. 4-4 could be enough.
10. #TeamPacific - Team Brown (7): They picked up a W. Can they start building momentum? B.C. needed the Monday afternoon win over Nunavut to turn their misfortunes around and get right back into the Pool B standings. They are only 1-2, far from out of a wide open group. And they are not curling bad either. Take their game vs. Manitoba. The team curled 80%. Most times that would equate a W. But Manitoba curled 91% and won the game 14-5. Sometimes that happens. They can still advance here but they need to start winning games too....and maybe catch a few breaks along the way.
11. #TeamBluenose - Team Brothers (13): Leading into the event many thought a 4-4 record was the rough guess for where this team would finish. Could it land them in the Champ Pool? Hard to say but they would in the mix. Fast forward to end of Monday and....yup 4-4 still seems feasible and still in contention. They sit 2-3 but still control their fate. The scheduling gods did not bless them though. Tough to play 5 games compared to some teams having only played 3. But, on the flip side, should they reach the Champ Pool, having Thursday off before Champ Pool begins Friday could be a blessing in disguise. Of course, you have to make it to Friday first.
12. #FearTheMoose - Team Burns (16): Beat both territories teams in your pool and sit 2-2 after Monday. Yeah I think the rookie team would have been happy with that deal if you told them this is where they would stand in the competition. They are right in the hunt in Pool A with 2 losses, tied with Alberta and Northwest Territories. Another great example on how the stats (any in some cases even the eye test) do not tell the story. Are they curling great? As a team sitting at only 64%. Should they have lost Monday night to Yukon? Yup, probably. Are they pulling out wins and having fun? Yup, seems like they are. Shout out to skipper Krysta Burns. Her facial expressions during games are priceless. She seems a bit quirky and that can be fun. Plus, who can forget her sound bite of her own game while being dominated by Alberta Sunday morning, "I'm bored and I'm even playing".
13. #WC3 - Team Peterson (8): Gotta admit, this was a last minute edit after Peterson stole the W from Alberta Monday night. Sorry WC3, my bad in underestimating you there. Similar to the NCAA March Madness, you wonder what the "Last Team In" will play like come tournament time. And I think we are still wondering about this team after a few games. They sit 2-3 and still in the hunt in Pool A. They are curling 72% as a team and have not played bad. But they are also making small misses or line calls, leaving points in the hack or handing bonus points to their opposition. If they can go 4-4, even if that falls short of the Champ Pool, I think it would still be a successful event for the final team to punch their ticket into the #IceBubble.
14. #TheRock - Team Hill (T17): What a nice #TeamUpset story from Newfoundland and Labrador. Heading into the event, everyone seeded them #18 at the bottom of the rankings. How did they respond? They won their opener vs. NB and followed it up with another W over Nunavut. A rookie team who have already performed above their seed. Can they keep waving the upset flag and score a few more wins? They are in Pool B so who knows. Either way, great results thus far. Fun stat, they are one of two teams (the other being Ontario) to not blank a single end thus far. When they have hammer, points are going on the board. They just need to make sure those points stay with them and not against.
15. #WC2 - Team Zacharias (6): The surprise of the event, right? I know, even I had a hard time moving them this far down the rankings based on their pre-event seeding. But, results speak for themselves. They are 1-3 after a Monday night loss to NWT. They really cannot afford many more, if any, losses and they still have WC3, NS, ON and NOnt to play. This is a good team. They are the defending Canadian and World Junior champs after all. And the record does not indicate how they have been playing. They are curling 74% as a team, third highest among Pool A. But they are not getting the results. Maybe too high of expectations caught up. Or just learning the ropes, like we all have to do when we are new to a job. They can finish 3-1 given their schedule and 4-4 in Pool A might just squeeze you through the door. If they can look at this week as a two-part event, ignore the first act and focus on the second act with a mentality they are 0-0, the confidence might come back and they can still make some noise this week. But falter in either of their next two games and the curtain will come down earlier than many expected.
16. #TeamAcadia - Team Adams (15): The New Brunswick team is struggling. I think the opening "upset" loss to NL still stings them. But they should try to focus on the comeback they almost pulled off. They were down 3-8 remember and ended up losing 7-8. The losses to PEI and WC1 were not close however. Collectively they have the second lowest team percentage at 62%. The Champ Pool door is 98% closed with an aim now to finish strong, pick up some wins and play spoiler.
17. #TeamArctic - Team Eddy (14): Speaking of playing spoiler, Lori Eddy and company are officially in that zone now. If NB has 98% of the Champ Pool door closed, NU has 99.5% of the door closed. Sitting at 0-4, they need to win their remaining games vs. Pool B opposition (QC, NB, PEI, MB) and hope for some help. Gotta feel for this team too after the #HERstoric 2 wins last year. You know they had confidence and hope to replicate, or better, that record. They need to find a way to start scoring. In 4 games they have only scored 11 points, lowest in the competition. They are still looking for their first multi-point end as well. At 0-4, time to focus on the mini-wins and maybe those bigger Ws will follow.
18. #PurplePower - Team Eby (T17): You have to feel for Laura Eby and her team. Playing to stay alive Monday night, they put on the #StealPants and held a 6-3 lead over NOnt playing 9. And the wheels came off. Giving up 5 in 9 to trail by 2 coming home, even with hammer, has to be demoralizing. They should have won their first game. Alas, they sit 0-5 and become the first team officially eliminated from Championship Pool contention. Why so many rocks in play in 9 though? Why?
#StayTuned
Tuesday is usually Moving Day at the Scotties with Wednesday becoming Elimination Day. This should still be the case, even with an expanded field.
The blog will return with updated Power Rankings AND a Special Guest will be joining the podcast later in the week to hand out the midterm grades.
ICYMI, Team Walker lead Nadine Scotland sat down with the podcast on Monday to discuss opening weekend action. We discussed which teams are looking good early (see the top of the #PowerRankings), which are surprising (we saw you Quebec) and which have some work to do. Check out the conversation on your favourite podcast app or download it HERE.
Good luck and good curling....
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