#WMCC2021 Preview

 #BetweenTheSheets: WMCC2021 Preview

From March Madness to April Fool's

Sports can be cruel. It is a fact of life. 

Especially this time of year.

We go from the hype and excitement of #MarchMadness to the reality check of #AprilFools.

14 teams will enter the #IceBubble with world championship aspirations and Olympic dreams.

By Championship Sunday, for the majority of the players, those dreams will be dashed.

As I said, sports can be cruel. Happy April Fool's Day!

The 2021 World Men's Curling Championship will become a game within a game. 

Teams will be competing for a world championship title.

Nations will be competing for a coveted spot in the upcoming Winter Olympics.

There are 6 Olympic tickets up for grabs inside the #IceBubble. Basically those who reach the playoffs will earn their nation an Olympic spot.

China, as host nation, does not need to worry about the added pressure as they have their Olympic ticket punched. But, they can play spoiler.

If China should finish within the Top 6, an extra Olympic spot will not automatically go to the 7th place finisher.

Instead, the extra Olympic spot will become available at the upcoming 2022 Olympic Qualification Event.

On the positive side, the #AprilFools joke doesn't actually end the dreams of a nation. Just kidding folks. Every nation who qualified for the #WMCC2021 has also qualified to competed in the #OQE2022.

So, if you do slip up this week, the Olympic aspirations for your home nation are not over...but they are on life support.

10 nations will qualify for the Winter Olympics. China is already there. 6 more tickets will be punched at this event. The remaining 3 will be claimed at the Olympic Qualification Event.

If China reached the playoffs next weekend, only 5 tickets will be claimed at this event and the Olympic Qualification Event will offer 4 Olympic spots.

Got all that? If not, I am sure it will be talked about OVER and OVER and OVER again during the week.

What will it take to seal up a playoff spot? Based on recent history, 4 losses or less will punch a playoff spot and, thus, an Olympic spot.

In 2019, 4 losses got you 6th place and just into the playoffs while 5 losses had you eliminated.

In 2018, however, a 6-6 record landed you 6th place and the final playoff spot.

And in 2017, even though it was still only a Top 4 playoff format, 5 losses was a Top 6 finish.

The slight difference this year is we have 14 teams competing, one extra compared to the past two years with the new Top 6 playoff format.

A 9-4 record will safely move you into the playoffs. An 8-5 record might as well or possibly a TB. But finish 7-6 or worse and those Olympic, and playoff, hopes are likely dashed.

So which nations are stepping on the ice with Olympic hopes this week?

And which teams are representing their nation trying to win a world championship?

Bring on the #WMCC2021 Preview!

And the return of the Power Rankings!

Who are the top seeds? Which teams can live up to their seeding? Which could falter? Which could wave the #TeamUpset flag?

#PowerRankings

Once again, the seed is based on the #TwineTime Power Rankings system. More info on the blog system, developed in 2018, can be found HERE.

Based on the Final Power Rankings in April 2020, lets break down the teams and ask a few questions on what we should watch for (Team Ranking, Nation Ranking):

1. Scotland - Team Mouat (#4, #9): As skip Bruce Mouat mentioned in our podcast episode this week, this team kind of sits under the radar at world championships and international events. Everyone knows they are good, yet nobody names them as a favourite or top contender. Well, that is not the case this week Mr. Mouat. Sorry to shine the spotlight on the boys but this team is the top ranked team based on the #PowerRankings and very much a championship favourite. They have stepped on the competitive ice during the pandemic, playing top Scottish teams and winning every event they played. They come in with ice under their sliders and a ton of confidence. Sure they are not going to fly under the radar but this could be the best they have ever looked going into a world championship. They won bronze in their debut (2018) and reached the playoffs in 2019. I think they go one game further than the 2018 result this time. Watch Out!

2. Sweden - Team Edin (#5, #2):  Back-to-back world champions return to #DefendTheIce. Literally! The last time we saw this team hoist the trophy was also on Alberta ice at the 2019 world championship in Lethbridge. Edin also won his first #GSOC title on Alberta ice, in Okotoks. To say Alberta ice is nice for Team Edin would be an understatement. We know #KingNiklas. 4 world championships. 7 European championships. Olympic silver and bronze. He has only lost 1 game at each of the past two world championships. Anything short of another finals appearance would be a disappointment. But we have not seen them on the competitive ice in awhile either so what should we expect? Perhaps a little ice rust the opening day or first few draws. They open with Switzerland, USA and Italy so they will be pressed right from the opening slide, which is probably good. If they start 3-0 or 2-1 and get on a roll early, there may be no stopping them.

3. Canada - Team Bottcher (#8, #1): Welcome to the world championship Team Bottcher. After coming so close to reaching this stage the past few years, they broke through the #IceBubble a few weeks ago to claim the Canadian championship. The big question here is how do they handle the pressure now? At the Brier it was more of an "unfinished business" mentality. Now, pressure is on. This is an experienced international field. Yes, Team Bottcher has won #GSOC events and has tour success but a world championship is a different rock to spin. And with a dangling carrot known as the Olympics also hanging over them. It will be all about how they handle the pressure. And the pressure cooker gets turned up from the get go as Canada draws Scotland in the opener followed by Japan. The subplot will also be Darren Moulding's back. He seems good to go and there is no underlying story here. But back issues and pain are no joke and do not just go away. If he can stay healthy and not aggravate the back during the week, they should be good for a playoff run. If not, the addition of Marc Kennedy was a nice pick up. Home ice advantage, even without the fans, will be the ace in their back pocket. They know the bubble life. They have a routine. They know rocks and ice and what to expect in a quiet arena. Plus they did win a tough national championship.

4. Japan - Team Matsumura (#9, #6): Speaking of Japan, welcome back Team Matsumura. Yuta Matsumura made his skipping debut at the 2019 world championship and surprised many with his run to the playoffs and 4th place finish. Is this team flying under the radar a bit heading into the 2021 world championship? Possibly. They have the task of proving 2019 was not a fluke and try not to succumb to the Sophomore Slump we often see in sports. The advantage they have is competing and winning a national championship to earn their spot here. And it was not just a simple playoff vs. one team. It was a full on national championship. Interesting note, had this field not been expanded to 14 teams, Japan would not be competing here. They failed to qualify from the 2019 #PACC and lost the final game at the qualification event. Now, here they are and looking in prime position to take an Olympic spot. How intriguing is that? This is a dangerous #DarkHorse team to keep your eyes on.

5. Switzerland - Team De Cruz (#11, #5): The Bronze Boys are back! We know the monkey on the back of this team. Bronze medal wins at the 2014, 2017 and 2019 world championships. A bronze medal win at the 2018 Winter Olympics. This team is a playoff mainstay but those SF games....the crux of their curling existence. Is this finally the year? They did get some competitive ice under their sliders prior to landing inside the #IceBubble. They defeated defending Swiss champs Team Schwaller in a playoff to earn their spot. Playoff spot? Check. But how far they go once they get there? Unknown. For fans, we also get the added bonus of seeing what Beniot Schwarz is going to do. He can be a human curling highlight reel when he is on a roll. If he gets hot early, this team could make a deep run.

6. USA - Team Shuster (#19, #14): Speaking of monkey on the back, enter Team Shuster. Always a playoff contender but struggling to take that extra slide towards the championship. If we look at the past 4 world championship appearances for Shuster, we see 5th (2015), Bronze (2016), 4th (2017) and 5th (2019). Of course there is that Olympic gold wedged in between. So we know this team will be in the playoff hunt but can they finally break through? Interesting as well to see if the "auto berth" discussion comes up with TSN Curling after what we saw during the #CMDCC2021 final. Plus, check out the Return of the Plys podcast episode when vice Chris Plys makes his long awaited return, almost 5 years to the day when he joined the #TwineTimeFam.

7. Netherlands - Team van Dorp (#22, #31): This will mark skip Jaap van Dorp's 4th consecutive world championship appearance. Time to see if they can finally get over the 4 win mark. In his debut (2017), the team finished 1-10. The past two world championships have seen identical 4-8 records. When you look at the seeding, they are just on the cusp of the playoffs and Olympic qualification. But they will need to get the 4-spot monkey off their back and find a few more wins throughout the week to make it happen. As mentioned above, 5 losses is probably the max here so the Dutch are going to have to find a few "upset" wins along the way.

8. Italy - Team Retornaz (#29, #10): If anyone knows the stress of a Top 6 finish and of the Olympic Qualifying Event, it is Italian skip Joel Retornaz. Remember Retornaz went the OQE route for the last Olympics, winning a spot in the Olympic field on a last stone in 2017. At the 2019 world championship, Retornaz finished one game out of the playoffs and settled for a 7th place finish. And here he is again, right in the middle of the pack trying to "steal" a bid from one of the teams seeded above him while trying not to give extra ice to the teams below. This will be Retornaz's 7th world championship appearance so experience is a plus. This could be the #TeamUpset to be weary of.

9. Norway - Team Walstad (#37, #11): This will be Steffen Walstad's 4th straight world championship appearance...and his 4th straight different team. Ok in 2019 he was the alternate for the surprise appearance of Team Ramsfjell but you get the point. This may be the best team Walstad has had with him though. Adding long-time vet Torger Negaard at vice helps and regular teammate Markus Hoiberg at second keeps familiarity. It is tough to say what to make of this team. We have not seen them together so a bit of an unknown. Experience factor is there. Teammate compatibility might be in progress.

10. China - Team Zou (#40, #8): The one team with one less level of stress on their shoulders will be Team Zou. They know China will be at the Winter Olympics as host; however, a strong showing here might help solidify them as the team to represent the home nation. Plus they can "steal" a bid away from a competing nation by reaching the playoffs. This team is no stranger to World Qualification Events either. Just ask them how they punched their ticket into this field! They may be overlooked but Zou Qiang will be making his 4th straight appearance here, although only his second as a skip. In his debut (2019), the team finished 2-10.

11. Russian Curling Federation - Team Glukhov (#45, #4): Lots going on with Russian sports leading to the Olympics, both Summer and Winter. The Court of Arbitration for Sport prohibited Russia from competing at world championships and Olympic Games under the Russian flag back in December 2020. The ruling is in effect until December 2022. Some people believe Russia should not be allowed to field athletes in world championship events and/or Olympic Games during this time as well. It is a tough call. Regardless of opinion, Team Glukhov is here ready to compete. They are also the last team to earn a spot in this field. After a disastrous 2019 European Championship, Russia was forced to compete at the qualifying event where they would win the final spot after defeating Japan. For Sergey Glukhov, this will be his 4th world championship appearance. The past two years he has finished 9th overall. In 2019, he finished with a 4-8 record. If he wants to avoid the dreaded final qualifier event, he is going to have to put together a career best week against this field.

12. Denmark - Team Noergaard (#63, #13): Welcome back Denmark. It has been a hot minute since we have seen you at the world championships. The last time Denmark competed on world championship ice was 2016, when Rasmus Stjerne won a silver medal (lost to Canada's Team Koe). It has taken 5 years to get back and many ups and downs for Danish Curling. They dipped all the way to the C Group of the European Curling Championships before fighting their way back. At the 2019 #ECC, Mads Noergaard and Mikkel Krause were the surprise of the event making the playoffs and finishing 4th overall. Can lightning strike the ice twice? They are in tough here to replicate the Euro magic but anything can happen right? It is why we play the games. And coming into your debut world championship, even with the added stress of Olympic qualification, as an underdog with minimal expectations can sometimes be just the right recipe for success.

13. Germany - Team Totzek (#68, #7): Don't let the age of skip Sixten Totzek dupe you into thinking Germany is at a huge disadvantage here. Yes the 21-year-old will be making his skipper debut on the world championship ice but he does have international experience. He represented Germany at the 2020 World Junior Curling Championship, finishing in 4th place. He has also played with Marc "Mukki" Muskatewitz at the past two European Curling Championships, finishing 4th (2018) and 7th (2019) respectively. I admit, I may be biased on this team after hanging out with them at past European and World Championships. But I do think this is a great up and coming team. Playoff ready? Probably not. Experience to help them in the Olympic qualifier? 100%. A Top 8 finish is realistic here.

14. South Korea - Team Jeong (NR, #3): Welcome to your debut world championship Team Jeong. You carry the Olympic aspirations of South Korea on your shoulders in your rookie appearance against a stacked field of vets. Good luck?!? This is a young team and most of their opposition probably has not seen them play, perhaps not even heard of them. This can be an advantage and disadvantage of course. They will be in tough to win a few games. If they can beat South Korea's 1-11 record from 2019 though, it will already be considered a success for #TeamRookie.

Agree with the seeding? Any seeds surprise you? Share your thoughts using the hashtag #PowerRankings and #WMCC2021 on social media.

Lets bring on the predictions. 

#TwineTimePredictions

World Men's Curling Championship

#IceBubble (Calgary, AB)

2019 Champion: Sweden (Team Edin)

Format: 14-team RR with Top 6 advancing to the playoffs. Top 2 earn a bye to the SF.

#W2W4:

This is a world championship filled with more questions than assumptions.

Can Niklas Edin #3peat?

Can Bruce Mouat finally break through?

Can Peter de Cruz no longer be the #BronzeBoy?

How will Brendan Bottcher respond in his debut appearance?

Will Darren Moulding's back hold up throughout the week?

Which teams will surprise?

Which teams will disappoint?

It is really tough to know what to expect when the level of on-ice competition has not been consistent over the past year. Some teams have been able to practice more than others. Some have been able to play competitive games. Some have played games but practice games or "friendlies" if you will.

Teams also have the added pressure of punching those Olympic tickets. How will the teams respond? As much as all the athletes can say they are trying not to focus on that and are just going out to play one game at a time, it is impossible not to be thinking about it.

On the plus side though, the Olympic spots basically will go to the playoff teams. So, if you are trying to distance yourself from the Olympic stress, just focus on making the playoffs and the Olympics are the nice bonus prize.

I think we can assume Sweden, Scotland and Switzerland should be safe bets for the playoffs. Canada should be as well. But those final two spots could be up for grabs. Japan and USA are the favourites but if they falter, even the slightest, we could see an Olympic-sized steal.

#TeamUpset:

What we are looking for here is any team who can "steal" a playoff spot from the Big 6 and thus steal an Olympic ticket. Do we have any "bid thieves" in the house?

The two teams who stand out right away are Italy's Team Retornaz and Norway's Team Walstad. Both have world championship experience. Both have European championship experience. Both have Olympic experience. Both come in as the "next tier" based on the ranking with something to prove.

These are also two teams who are not afraid to have rocks in play and try for those big scoring ends. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it does not. 

Also keep your eyes on Germany's Team Totzek. New team formation. New positions for some players. New dynamic. So who dis? We really don't know...and that can be a great combination for #TeamUpset potential. If Totzek can take positive learning experiences from his world junior championship appearances, he could be a surprise skip.

The key for all three of these European teams is knowing when to go all in and when to bail out. The Gushue Effect as we have come to know it. The 5-rock rule can be a blessing but can also reel you in to a false sense of security to score a big end when, in actuality, you end up giving up a big end or a steal.

Projected Final RR Standings (Seed):

1. Sweden - Team Edin (#2)

2. Scotland - Team Mouat (#1)

3. Switzerland - Team De Cruz (#5)

4. Canada - Team Bottcher (#3)

5. Japan - Team Matsumura (#4)

6. USA - Team Shuster (#6)

7. Italy - Team Retornaz (#8)

8. Norway - Team Walstad (#9)

9. Germany - Team Totzek (#13)

10. Russian Curling Federation - Team Glukhov (#11)

11. Netherlands - Team van Dorp (#7)

12. China - Team Zou (#10)

13. Denmark - Team Noergaard (#12)

14. South Korea - Team Jeong (#14)

Olympic Qualifiers: Sweden, Scotland, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, USA

Playoff Qualifiers: Sweden, Scotland, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, USA

#WMCC2021 Bronze Medal: Switzerland (De Cruz) def. Canada (Bottcher)

#WMCC2021 CHAMPIONSHIP: Scotland (Mouat) def. Sweden (Edin)

Time for a changing of the guard. Everything is lined up for Team Mouat to capture the world championship and take Scotland back to the top of the podium for the first time since 2009. Not many teams have had the "normal" level of practice and competition throughout the pandemic compared to Team Mouat and this will be a huge advantage for them. I saw a few people on social media say they "just" were playing fellow Scottish teams. Check out the world rankings folks. Outside of Canada, Scotland has put together a pretty strong list of teams to play against. And Mouat is undefeated!

It is always tough to bet against #KingNiklas because he is a great champion and also a great guy. He is one of my favourites in the sport and a #TwineTimeFam member. But Mouat is a fam member as well and it feels like this is the year to see a new champion stand atop the podium. Mouat will not blow through the field Edin-style, like we have seen the past two years, and will take a few losses along the way. He also won't be talked about as much after playing Canada in the opening draw and will fly a bit under the radar, exactly where he likes to be. And hey, he is the top seed according to the #PowerRankings so is this really an "upset" or "surprise" pick?

#StayTuned

The #PowerRankings will continue to be updated. Check out the #TwineTime Facebook Page for the daily updates, starting Sunday.

Do not forget to sign up for the Fantasy Curling offering by Curling Canada and Office Pools. This could be a bit tricky, especially opening weekend, as some teams have competitive ice time and some do not. Who comes out hot early? Who struggles? See if your picks can predict!

And yes, this is my legit preview and my real predictions. No April Fool's Day joke being played here.

Good luck and good curling.