#Sweep16 Preview

#BetweenTheSheets: The #Sweep16 Preview

At the PointsBet Invitational, is it all about the numbers?

The March Madness on Ice is back for its 3rd year.

The PointsBet Invitational will hit the ice in Calgary this week as top teams from Canada chase bracket challenge glory.

But it is not just about bragging rights this week. We are talking about money, honey!

All teams who qualify for a spot in the bracket receive $5,000. As you keep winning on the ice, so does your team bank account.

Here is the payout breakdown:

Sweep 16 Win - $3,000

Elite 8 Win - $6,000

Final 4 Win - $12,000

Championship Win - $24,000

And yes, these amount are equal payouts for both the men's and women's brackets. We are talking about financial equality here too folks!

16 men's and women's teams from across Canada. Single elimination. Big money up for grabs. How do we break it down?

Don't worry rockheads, #TwineTime has you covered.

As a quick aside, anyone else disappointed to see there is no #Sweep16 Bracket Challenge this year?

The idea of completing a perfect bracket for $1,000,000 in the past was exciting and got fans interesting in the event, whether they were regular curling fans or new to the sport.

And, seeing how this event is sponsored by an online sports betting company, the removal of an online bracket challenge seems VERY strange, no??

Look, the odds of completing the perfect bracket were pretty much null. Was it ever REALLY going to happen? Probably not.

BUT, does that mean we stop offering the opportunity?

March Madness has Bracket Challenge opportunities everywhere. CBS. ESPN. Yahoo. OfficePools. It seems every sports outlet provides a March Madness opportunity to enter.

So why can't PointsBet Canada, TSN, Curling Canada or other offer a similar opportunity?

THIS was the real draw of the event. A money event for players BUT a real marketing event for fans.

The offering of money for a perfect bracket was just a fun incentive. Did any of us who entered really think we were going to win $1M? Nope!

Did we enter anyway because we love a good Bracket Challenge, similar to March Madness? Absolutely.

Who doesn't love bragging about their brackets? Or using the dumpster fire emoji on social media when you become #BracketBusted?

If we want to continue to #growthesport from a fan perspective, contests like a Bracket Challenge and other fantasy curling options are the best way to do so.

We can promote (and encourage) online gambling for the sport but we do not want to support fantasy curling? 👀👀

Alas, it is what it is for 2024. We can only hope people take to social media asking for the return of a Bracket Challenge for this event in 2025.

But for now, we slide forward and enjoy the event for what it is.

So how do you break down a single-elimination bracket in curling?

For the #Sweep16, it might be all about the numbers.

#TheNumbers

When the bracket is released for March Madness, prognosticators go crazy with bracket preview posts and analytics.

Break down a seed report of qualified teams. Analyze matchups. Who are the #Favs? Who are the #BracketBusters?

But they also analyze the stats and break down the historic numbers.

Now we only have 2 years of history to go off here but we can still break it down and ask the question, "Is there a numbers advantage?"

To start, lets do a quick overview of the Sweep 16 round. Lets just look at the seed pairings, not focusing on the teams attached to the seed right now.

Here are some stats for you:

• Teams seeded #1, #2, #3, #5 and #6 are undefeated in the Sweep 16 over the past 2 years
• Teams seeded #8 own a 3-1 advantage over #9 seeds
• The #4/#13 and #7/#10 matchup is even at 2 wins for each seed
• The women's #13 seed was victorious in 2022 (Team Sturmay) while the men's #13 seed was victorious last year (Team Kleiter)
• The women's #10 seed was victorious in 2022 (Team Barker) while the men's #10 seed was victorious last year (Team McEwen)
• The lone #9 seed win was last year (Team R. Smith def. Team Epping)
• Saskatchewan has produced the most #BracketBusters over the year with 3 lower seeds winning
• There have been 2 times where the Sweep 16 round was all chalk (higher seeds all won): Men 2022, Women 2023

Those stats could help you complete your Sweep 16 round of your bracket. But what happens in the Elite 8 and Final 4?

• All #1 seed have progressed to the Final Four
• There are 3 instances where one of the Final Four matchup was #1 vs. #5 (2022, Men 2023)
• One of the Final Four games for the women in both years has been #2 vs #6
• The lowest seed to advance to the Final Four is #10 (Team McEwen, 2023)
• No women's #3 seed has reached the Final Four
• Only 1 #4 seed has ever advanced to the Final Four (Team Lawes, 2023)
• There has never been a Final Four consisting of the Top 4 seeds
• Teams seeded #7, #8, #9 and #13 have won Sweep 16 games but have never won in the Elite 8

We are now whittling down our numbers towards the final. How are the seeds stacking up for the championship game?

• Both men's finals have been #3 vs. #5
• Overall #5 seeded teams have reached 3 of the 4 finals
• #5 seeds have won 3 of the 4 championship finals, including sweeping the finals in 2022
• Only 1 #1 seed has reached a final (Team Einarson, 2023)
• The lowest seed to reach the final was #6 (Team Scheidegger, 2022)
• Last year marked the first time a final was contested between #1 and #2 (Team Einarson vs. Team Homan)
• Lucky #5 is the only seed to win a men's championship

Now of course we would be remiss not to mention the men's final in both previous years featured the same two teams: Team Carruthers vs. Team Dunstone.

Both times Team Carruthers emerged victorious as the lower seed (#5).

Could these teams accomplish the finals #3peat? Both are on opposite sides of the bracket once again BUT each have dropped a seed line with Dunstone as the #4 seed this year and Carruthers #6.

The numbers would indicate history is not on either of their sides this year.

The women have had 4 different teams make the finals: Team Jones, Team Scheidegger, Team Homan, Team Einarson.

And the women's bracket has produced a different winner each year: Team Jones (2022), Team Homan (2023).

For what it is worth, as the defending champions last year Team Jones was seeded #3 and was eliminated in the Elite 8.

Now we know the numbers and the stats to help us get started on our brackets.

But we need to take into consideration the teams competing as well, not just the numbers next to their names.

Bring on the Seed Report.

#SeedReport

WOMEN

(1) Team Homan

The champs are back to #DefendTheIce. We have only seen them once on tour thus far this season...and they won a title.

While #1 seeds have not had the best of luck at this event, as noted above, anything short of a run to the final and chance to defend the title would be a major surprise.

(2) Team Carey

This is a team very familiar with the event, with 3/4 of them having won in 2022.

Chelsea Carey is no stranger here either, having been the #4 seed in 2022 but suffered an upset loss vs. #13 seed Team Sturmay.

This will be a good test to see just how well this team is gelling together. We did see them qualify for the playoffs last weekend at the Mother Club as a tune-up.

(3) Team Einarson

All eyes on Team Einarson once again this week. We know the lead replacement but now we have a #SuperSpare situation at second with Laura Walker stepping in for Shannon Birchard.

To Walker's credit, she did compete this past weekend in the mixed doubles event in Calgary and reached the final with partner Kirk Muyres. She seems ready to go!

It has been a difficult 2024 for this team. Can they regroup?

(4) Team Lawes

Kaitlyn Lawes seems to enjoy this event, having reached the SF each of the past two years. And last year she was a #4 seed. Look at her seed this year!

BUT, as noted above, #4 seeds have been most prone to big Sweep 16 upsets from #13 seeds.

We saw them reach the SF at the Saville Shootout earlier this season.

(5) Team Sturmay

Speaking of #13 seeds, it was Selena Sturmay who became the lowest seed to win a Sweep 16 match back in 2022 (defeating Team Carey).

Fast forward two years and the team is defending Alberta champions and up to a coveted #5 seed, one of the most successful seeds in the history of this event.

Lets also remember this event is being held at the same venue as the 2024 Scotties Tournament of Hearts and we saw how successful that event was for this team.

(6) Team Cameron

And speaking of #STOH2024 results, how about the bronze medal winners? They are back in the venue as well, enjoying a #6 seed.

Kate Cameron is no stranger to this event either, reaching the final in 2022 with Team Scheidegger.

They will arrive in Calgary with some momentum as well, having reached the final last weekend in Beaumont.

(7) Team Inglis

Oh the tricky #7 vs #10 matchup. As the numbers show, this battle always has #BrackBuster potential.

Team Inglis has the advantage as the high seed. And, similar to the teams seeded just above them, also competed at #STOH2024 on this same ice surface.

Inglis has been a champion in the making, coming so close in the past and breaking through last season.

Now the pressure is on to replicate the success of last year and show why they are Team #CurlON.

But that #10 seed is very dangerous right now too.

This game MIGHT be THE GAME of the Sweep 16 to watch. Plus it is a rematch of last year's opening round game, where Team Inglis was the lower seed (#9) and lost.

Revenge?

(8) Team Brown

Team Brown will be making their #Sweep16 debut this year. How will they handle the pressure of a "one and done" style event?

We saw them compete at the Saville Shootout a few weeks ago, failing to qualify for the playoffs.

Is it too early to say this team is feeling pressure to win and represent B.C. once again?

(9) Team Gray-Withers

No women's #9 seed has won a game at the PointsBet Invitational. Is this the year?

If so, Team Gray-Withers is a good bet to make some #HERstory.

While they may have qualified as the U Sport champion this year, they are no strangers to this event.

Last year they were here too, having "double qualified" as the U Sport champ AND U25 #NextGen champion.

And while they may have been eliminated in the opening round, they have improved their seed position this year, moving up to #9 from #10.

(10) Team Skrlik

The Rematch!

Last year it was a #8/#9 battle. This year it will be #7/#10.

Team Skrlik won last year's game vs. Team Inglis. But they were the higher seed.

If they want to advance to the Elite 8 again this year, they will need to do it as the lower seed.

But, as the numbers show, if there is a lower seed to watch out for, the #10 is certainly one of them.

Historic info aside, Skrlik has had a lightning bolt of a season already. A finalist at Stu Sells Oakville and SF at the Shorty Jenkins Classic has this team coming back home with a ton of confidence.

Plus they are ranked in the Top 10 of the recent #PowerRankings.

(11) Team Campbell

Jolene Campbell is back at the #Sweep16.

After competing here in 2022 as a member of Team Carey, Campbell will now return as skip of her own team.

We did see this team compete at the Saville Shootout to start their season, failing to qualify unfortunately.

A #11 seed has never won a Sweep 16 game either. However...

One fun fact the numbers informed us of above: Saskatchewan is the leading province in #BracketBuster results.

(12) Team Thevenot

Speaking of lower seeded #BracketBuster potential and representing Saskatchewan, hello Team Thevenot.

The defending Sask champions may look a bit different this year but do not underestimate them either.

They have already played 2 finals this season at the SaskTour Icebreaker and Icebreaker Challenge.

Hmmm, they certainly seem to thrive in Icebreaker events. Maybe, from a sports psychology perspective, they should tell themselves this is called the PointsBet Icebreaker??

Again, no #12 seed has won a Sweep 16 game. And we know #5 seeds have the best winning percentage overall.

But if there was a team to upset the numbers and make some history, this could be the team to do so.

Remember, they also had a pretty solid run on this ice at #STOH2024.

Their game vs. Sturmay could be the game of the Sweep 16 round too.

(13) Team Reese-Hansen

We want to talk #BracketBusters? #13 seed Team Reese-Hansen has entered the chat.

Not only do we already know, historically, #13 seeds can pull off the upset over the higher ranked #4 seeds.

But, this team has been having a strong start to the season and may be considered the B.C. Scotties front-runner right now.

They qualified for this event by winning the U25 NextGen Classic

(14) Team MacNutt

Speaking of #NextGen, how about Nova Scotia's Team MacNutt?

They qualified for this event by winning the Canadian Junior Curling Championship and could be a dangerous team to watch out for.

Their competition may not be as familiar with them either, which could play to their advantage.

And while a #14 seed has never won a game at this event, they have drawn the Top 4 seed entering the event the most vulnerable.

(15) Team Burgess

Lets go New Brunswick! 

Fun fact, New Brunswick has been represented in the women's draw at this event every year. A fact not every province/territory can claim.

Team Burgess qualified for the bracket via their Canadian Club Curling Championship.

And recently we saw them compete at the North American Club Curling Championship, claiming victory over their USA counterparts.

That experience, on the ice as the lone game being on TV and in front of the cameras, may actually help them stay focused and relaxed at this event.

Being crowned a North American champion is a career highlight. Now they arrive in Calgary with nothing to lose and everything to continue to gain.

Could we finally see a #15 seed knock off a #2 seed?

(16) Team Wood

The team with the toughest task of all: facing defending Sweep 16, Scotties and world champions Team Homan in the opening round.

Yikes!

But similar to Team Burgess, they are playing with house money.

They qualified for this event by winning the Canadian Collegiate Athletic Association (CCAA) Curling Championships. 

Similar to their opposition, they are also calling themselves Canadian champions right now.

Lets give some credit and respect to their name...even if it is going to be a massive uphill battle ahead of them.

MEN

(1) Team Gushue

Canadian champ. Pan Continental champ. Past world champ. This team has won it all.

But they have not been crowned Sweep 16 champions...yet?

Gushue has been the #1 seed every year.

And every year he advances to the Final Four.

And every year he finds himself against #5 seed Reid Carruthers. And loses.

Well, you can bet he might be happy looking at the bracket this year and seeing Mr. Carruthers' name on the opposite side of the draw as a #6 seed.

AND a #5 seed with a TON of question marks (but more on that below).

We have seen the Brier champs only once this season and the result was a strong SF finish at Stu Sells Oakville.

(2) Team Jacobs

Is this team happy with their #2 seed?

Team Jacobs, formerly known as Team Bottcher, has been the #2 seed each of the past 2 seasons.

And what has the seed produced for them?

Final Four in 2022. Elite 8 in 2023. No Final Four appearances.

And, both previous years, many went into the event predicting them to be the champions.

So is there bad mojo attached to the seed for this team OR the heightened weight of expectations?

But lets flip the script a bit with the new addition. Brad Jacobs is, technically, a defending champion after winning the title last year as a member of Team Carruthers.

He is undefeated at the PB Invitational.

So which streak continues?

The team will have some confidence coming into the event, having qualified for the playoffs this past weekend in Okotoks.

(3) Team McEwen

Speaking of confidence and Okotoks, how about the champions?

Not to mention they have won back-to-back tour events and are on a huge victory streak right now.

And they reached the Final Four here last year.

And they are in the coveted #3 seed spot, a seed that has reached the final every year.

The numbers don't lie. The teams stats don't lie. 

Is anyone wanting to bet against them right now?

(4) Team Dunstone

And if we are talking about the luck of the #3 seed, how about the team who held down that seed the past 2 years in reaching back-to-back finals?

Can Team Dunstone finally break through and win this event?

Hey, a 6-2 overall record in 2 years at this event with 2 finals appearances is a solid resume.

But we know Matt Dunstone. He does not settle on good results. He wants great results.

Flip side, the #4 seed does not have the same lucky ring to it as the #3 seed.

Team Koe has been the #4 seed the past 2 years and last year was upset by the #13 seed (Team Kleiter). And they draw, arguably, one of the toughest lower seeds in the tournament.

For Dunstone, we saw them compete at the Shorty Jenkins Classic and a QF result.

This year we will find out whether is was good seed number mojo or #DunnyIsMoney mojo the past 2 years.

(5) Team Koe

Now lets talk about Team Koe.

Where do we begin?

With the Sweep 16 loss last year?

Or the Elite 8 loss the year before?

Or do we just dive into what EVERYONE is talking about on the eve of the event?

It was announced Tuesday afternoon Team Koe has parted ways with second Jacques Gauthier.

A move some were not surprised by as speculated during the end of last season and this off-season. 

But also a move catching some off guard as the big surprise of the season (thus far).

The team is likely to play with 3 this week. But will the announcement be a major distraction?

An announcement before a nationally televised major event with strong media coverage. There will be MANY eyes and questions on this team when they step on the ice.

Can they quiet all the noise and focus on the task at hand or is the announcement going to be a distraction, leading them to another early exit?

Plus, what domino effect will come from the announcement on the Alberta men's curling scene?

Is this open spot going to break up another team? Or does someone currently sitting on the sidelines return to the playing field.

Secretly, don't you kind of hope we see the return of the big guy Brad Thiessen? Just sayin'

A #5 men's seed has never lost at this event. But, if there was ever a time for it to happen, Team Koe may be the most vulnerable team in the field.

(6) Team Carruthers

Why don't we talk about the team who gave the #5 seed all its glory these past 2 years.

Reid Carruthers and his team will attempt the #3peat this week. But with a twist.

When Carruthers won the title in 2022, they were playing with Jason Gunnlaugson at vice.

In 2023, it was Brad Jacobs at vice.

Enter 2024 and welcome Catlin Schneider.

Is the success at this event a win for the team BUT also a curse for the third position? Pressure on Litterbox this week?

On the positive, they are coming off a QF result last weekend in Beaumont and a SF finish at the Saville Shootout a few weeks ago. Alberta ice has been kind to them.

(7) Team Sluchinski

If seed numbers matter, how happy (or unhappy) is Team Sluchinski?

Last year Sluchinski debuted at this event as the #7 seed. But it was a short appearance, having been upset by #10 seed Team McEwen.

Looking back on the result, hardly an "upset" given how McEwen reached the Brier final and has continued their strong play into this season.

But still, when you lose the previous year and return the following year as the same seed, does it play with your competitive mind just a bit?

The slightly altered Alberta champs have had a rough go early in the season, failing to qualify at Saville and in Beaumont.

Plus, are the lingering rumours around new teammate Kyle Doering being a top candidate to fill the gap on Team Koe going to get in their heads too?

(8) Team Kleiter

Saskatchewan's Team Kleiter returns to the Sweep 16, a year after posting the biggest upset in the short history of the men's competition when they upset Team Koe as a #13 seed.

This year they enter the competition as a #8 seed, proving their continued upward trend as a team.

And the numbers do show #8 is great seed to have in the opening round...but a horrible seed to have in the Elite 8.

Kleiter has enjoyed early success this year, reaching the SF in Saville and the QF in Okotoks.

The potential to, at least, live up to their seeding is very strong.

(9) Team Mooibroek

Team Mooibroek knows a thing or two about being a lower seed and trying to become a Bracket Buster.

Last year they were seeded #14 and drew Team Dunstone in the Sweep 16 round.

Improved seed this year. A battle against a fellow #NextGen up and comer.

And a seed number that at least has 1 win under the slider in the history of the event. Oh wait, that win just happens to belong to the third on this team, Ryan Wiebe, as skip last year. #FunFact

Lets also remember last year Mooibroek earned the auto ticket into the event as the U Sport champ.

This year, the ticket was earned based on season results overall.

The team did reach the SF at the season-opening U25 Next Gen Classic but failed to qualify in their follow-up event (Stu Sells Oakville).

(10) Team Purcell

Lets welcome another #NextGen skip with a ton of future potential: Owen Purcell.

The 2022 Canadian junior champion and world junior bronze medalist is becoming a dangerous threat in the sport.

The addition this season of veteran Scott Saccary can only make them stronger.

And while they may have failed to qualify in their 2 events played this season, including starting the season on a 6-game losing streak, they have won their last 2 games. In fact, their last win was against USA's Team Shuster, who just reached a tour final last weekend.

Are they starting to trend up? This event really is a tune-up for the upcoming Tour Challenge Tier II #gsoc next week in PEI.

But hey, why not win a few games and some money while you are here?

(11) Team Asselin

Quebec is back in the house. Felix Asselin returns to the Sweep 16 after having previously competed here in 2022.

Interestingly enough, guess what his seed was back then? Yup, #11. Again. Hmmm, see Team Sluchinski's notes above?

In 2022, Asselin lost the Sweep 16 game against Team Howard.

This year he draws two-time defending champion Team Carruthers. It is never easy for Quebec curling is it?!?

To Asselin's credit, he has a proven track record over the years of being an underdog and taking down the "big dogs". 

This season we have seen the team compete at one event, Shorty Jenkins Classic, and it resulted in the SF finish. Their run included victories over higher ranked teams like Team Whyte (QF) and Team Waddell.

Are they the dangerous Bracket Buster ready to end the Carruthers reign?

(12) Team Bryden

In March Madness the talk is always about how the #12 seed is the most dangerous double digit seed in the tournament. And history supports this notion.

At the Sweep 16, #12 seeds have had the opposite fortune in failing to win a game. Ever.

But is this the year? 

Saskatchewan's Team Bryden is the defending U Sport champion and they draw the vulnerable #5 seed Team Koe.

Saskatchewan is also the #TeamUpset province at this event, thriving as a lower seed.

Their opener could become more competitive then people initially assumed when the bracket was released.

(13) Team McDonald

Want to discuss a Bracket Buster? What about Manitoba's Team McDonald.

Matt Dunstone better be careful. Another #NextGen stud is climbing the ranks and ready to take him down this week.

Look at what Team McDonald has done this season: U25 NextGen Champions, Saville Shootout Finalist, Mother Club QF.

And that NextGen championship is what punched their ticket to this event.

Tough to find many teams who have a better early season resume overall.

We already know #13 seeds have a 50% chance of posting the upset based on the history of this event.

And Team McDonald is on the recent Top 10 Power Rankings...whereas their opposition is not.

👀👀

(14) Team Wipf

The 2024 Canadian junior champions may be considered underdogs as the #14 seed and drawing arguably the hottest team on tour right now in the Sweep 16 (Team McEwen) BUT they will have home ice advantage.

Not only are they the national junior champs but they are from Calgary and represent the University of Calgary. There may be some "Go Dino's" chants in the arena this week.

Now it has been a tough start to the season for Team Wipf, failing to qualify at the 3 events they have played and owning an overall season record of 3-10.

But, when you have coaching staff with the names Laine Peters (Head Coach) and Brett Gallant (Skill Development Coach), can you ever really be fully underestimated?

Plus you are playing with house money...at home.

(15) Team Horgan

The CCAA Curling Champions will try to make life difficult against the home favs of Team Jacobs.

It will be interesting to see how this team navigates curling together again. Skip Jacob Horgan currently plays with Team Epping on the men's tour so this team has not been curling together this season.

Could that hinder their chances (even more) to progress?

(16) Team Sherrard

Similar to Team Burgess above, Team Sherrard will arrive in Calgary fresh off a North American Club Curling Championships win over USA.

Obviously they are facing a similar uphill battle, drawing top seed and Brier champ Team Gushue in the opening round.

But, it is still a battle of current Canadian champions. 

And while Gushue is also the defending Pan Continental champion, Sherrard is now the North American club curling champ.

#BracketChallenge

It is only fair to reveal my bracket for the event. Here we go:

WOMEN

Sweep 16

(1) Team Homan def. (16) Team Wood

(9) Team Gray-Withers def. (8) Team Brown

(5) Team Sturmay def. (12) Team Thevenot

(4) Team Lawes def. (13) Team Reese-Hansen

(6) Team Cameron def. (11) Team Campbell

(3) Team Einarson def. (14) Team MacNutt

(10) Team Skrlik def. (7) Team Inglis

(2) Team Carey def. (15) Team Burgess

Elite 8

(1) Homan def. (9) Gray-Withers

(5) Sturmay def. (4) Lawes

(3) Einarson def. (6) Cameron

(10) Skrlik def. (2) Carey

Final 4

(1) Homan def. (5) Sturmay

(10) Skrlik def. (3) Einarson

Championship

(1) Team Homan def. (10) Team Skrlik

MEN

Sweep 16

(1) Team Gushue def. (16) Team Sherrard

(8) Team Kleiter def. (9) Team Mooibroek

(5) Team Koe def. (12) Team Bryden

(4) Team Dunstone def. (13) Team McDonald

(6) Team Carruthers def. (11) Team Asselin

(3) Team McEwen def. (14) Team Wipf

(7) Team Sluchinski def. (10) Team Purcell

(2) Team Jacobs def. (15) Team Horgan

Elite 8

(1) Gushue def. (8) Kleiter

(4) Dunstone def. (5) Koe

(3) McEwen def. (6) Carruthers

(2) Jacobs def. (7) Sluchinski

Final 4

(1) Gushue def. (4) Dunstone

(3) McEwen def. (2) Jacobs

Championship

(3) Team McEwen def. (1) Team Gushue

What say you rock heads? Agree with my bracket? How does your bracket look?

Share your bracket picks on social media using the #Sweep16 hashtag and join the conversation.

#StayTuned

The blog will be at the event for a majority of the draws. Live coverage. Score updates. Maybe some guests and surprises.

It will all go down on the #TwineTime social media channels so be sure to toss a follow and join the fun.

And if you are in Calgary attending any of the draws, say hi and lets chat curling.

For those competing in the #Sweep16, good luck and good curling.