#Curling S1819W3

#BetweenTheSheets: Tour 500* Events Highlight Week 3 

Stu Sells Oakville and HDF Shoot-Out have increased ranking points on the ice

Week 3. Early September. Weather still acceptable. Colors barely starting to change. Evenings getting a tad cooler. Pumpkin spice latte back to being the rage. Curlers getting a little restless. Better head from the lake to the ice and get this season underway.

While we have had a few events already this season many teams are still awaiting their debut on competitive ice. And many of these teams are also waiting to debut new line-ups and end the speculation on which off-season team announcements are going to be winning shots and which will be hog line violations.

This week we have a plethora of new teams hitting the ice for the first time so all eyes will be focused on curling sheets out east and out west. We are spanning the nation this weekend folks. Get ready....

Thus far in the early goings of the 2018/19 season we have seen a few smaller tour events headline the curling coverage. Outside of the larger event across the pond in Switzerland a few weeks back, the events have been smaller kick-off events. If we look back at the #TwineTime new #wct model, most of these events would be classified as #Tour250 events. Smaller fields of play, a bit smaller purse on the line but still excellent fun events for the athletes and a great way to wet the slider for the fans.

This week we start moving up the tour series ladder though. Both tour events, #StuSellsOakville is a dual gender event remember, would be classified as #Tour500 events. As we move up the event classification both the available rankings points and total purse amount increase. In most previous events our winners would receive 250 points, hence the #Tour250 designation. This week, our winners will receive 500 points. Of course our qualifiers for the SF and QF will also see an increase in ranking points. Winning these larger tour events can make a huge difference in the rankings as well.

If you checked out the recent #PowerRankings post, you would see just how big of a difference a Tour 500 W can make. We have only had one non-Tour 250 event this season and it was a men's only event. The winners, Team Ulsrud, collected the 500 points and moved to the top of the rankings mountain. They have played one event this season. They have collected one win. They are #1 under the new rankings model. Team De Cruz has played a Tour 500 and a Tour 250 event, reaching the SF in both. But look where their ranking points sit them, only in 4th place. Our Tour 500 event runner-up, Team Edin, has only played one event and in reaching the final still rank higher compared to De Cruz's two SF appearances on the season. Case in point, having those strong results in the higher series events and making those deep playoff runs can pay off for you in the rankings system.

But don't get too carried away and thinking you can only move up the rankings by playing the big events. Look at our men's #2 ranked team, Japan's Team Matsumura. They have played two Tour 250 events, winning one title and reaching the QF in the other. They sit above both Edin and De Cruz. Strong and consistent results, even on the "lower" ranking point Tour 250 series, can still carry you to a higher ranking. Matsumura is rewarded for picking up a tour victory on the season where, in comparison, De Cruz has played the same amount of tournaments but failing to reach a final does have ranking point drawbacks.

Starting to slowly make more sense now right? This proposed system is almost like playing poker with your ranking and competition. Do you make the decision to play 3 or 4 Tour 250 events early on and hope for strong results while your competition, and higher ranked opposition, perhaps plays only one Tour 500 and one Tour 250? If they falter and you succeed, BAM! Look at Team Dunstone. They have played two Tour 250 events and while they failed to qualify in their season opening event, reaching the final last weekend has moved them up the rankings mountain. In the current real world system, Dunstone is closing in on Grand Slam of Curling qualification due to the smart schedule they have put together early on. And note, they are also competing again this weekend in Oakville.

Speaking of last weekend, the men's and women's #OakvilleFallClassic event highlighted our tour action. For the men, #TwineTime was accurate predicting 5 of the 8 playoff teams; however, the all-Swiss final was not to be as predicted winner Team De Cruz would suffer a SF loss and Team Schwaller would lose in the QF (to De Cruz). Hey at least I predicted De Cruz over Schwaller in the playoffs right? It was not a great result on the women's draw though. We saw a sub-par 2/6 prediction with the playoff qualifiers. Predicted winner, Team Sidorova, fell short in the SF while predicted finalist Team Arsenault failed to reach the playoffs. In the season opening mixed doubles event, the accuracy improved at least. #TwineTime was correct on 6/8 playoff qualifiers and, for the first time this season, went perfect on predicting the final and winner (Peterman/Gallant def. Walker/Muyres). Luckily the mixed doubles event salvaged a relatively average weekend. Overall Grade: B

Time to step up the game and end this slow slide down the prediction grade ice. Bring on Week 3 #wct action. This weekend we focus on events in Oakville, Ontario and Edmonton, Alberta. Here are the #TourLifePredictions for the lone men's event and the two women's events:

MEN

Stu Sells Oakville (Tour 500)

Oakville, ON

2017 Champion: Team Bruce Mouat

Format: 26 team triple knockout with 8 qualifiers

Top Teams Entered (Top 15): Team De Cruz, Team Epping, Team Howard

Favourite: See last week's preview blog? This is sounding like a broken record early on in the men's season but it is hard to bet against Switzerland's Peter De Cruz right now isn't it? They have played two events on the season. They have two SF results. Pretty consistent results right? Given they have played more games than anyone else in the field (ok Team Dunstone has played two events as well and reached a final last weekend but still) you have to feel this is still the team to beat in the field. Can this finally be the week where #HoppSchwiiz goes one round better and reaches the championship final?

#TeamUpset: A few past #TeamUpset mentions on the season will be competing in Oakville this weekend. Netherlands' Japp van Dorp and Ontario's Tanner Horgan will once again hit the ice for their second events on the year and once again could be #TeamUpset contenders in the field. However, if we are looking at a new team to mention this week perhaps keep your eyes on Charley Thomas and his new foursome. Thomas, long-time competitor out of Alberta, has made the move a few provinces east and now competes out of Ontario. He has joined former PEI and Saskatchewan champion skip Adam Casey, now at vice, and a pair of Ontario front enders, Patrick Janssen and Fraser Reid. Janssen of course is best known for playing with John Epping the past few seasons and finding great success on tour, including reaching the Brier last season. This is an interesting new team, one many may have missed in the new team announcements flooding our ice during the off-season. We have been waiting to see Thomas find the right combination of teammates to make a run at a Brier, perhaps being one of the best players in the game not to have reached the big stage. Is this finally the winning combination for him?

W2W4: Glenn Howard. John Epping. Both names will be the most spoken names all weekend. Not only because both make their season debuts with new teams but also because a few former teammates will also be competing this weekend with their new teams. Howard will see son Scott move up to vice this year and is joined once again by Dave Mathers at second and the addition of Tim March at vice. March of course played with John Epping the past few years. Speaking of Epping, he will be showing off his new team this weekend, now curling with regular vice Matthew Camm and adding the experienced front end combo of Brent Laing and Craig Savill. Who isn't excited to see the Lainger/Savs combo back on the ice together? The duo played 10 years together as the front end for Glenn Howard (2004/05-2014/15), winning two Briers and two world championships (2007, 2012). Savill has been a fan favourite on tour for years and, after battling Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2015, it is great to see him back on the ice for a full season with a strong Ontario team. We have quite the carousal of teammates arriving in Oakville between Team Howard, Team Epping and Team Thomas. Hmmm, imagine seeing a QF or SF or even F between old teammates? Howard vs. Laing/Savill. Epping/Camm vs March or Janssen. We could be in for some interesting story lines folks. #StayTuned

Qualifiers: Team De Cruz, Team Dunstone, Team Epping, Team Howard, Team Schwaller, Team Muyres, Team Thomas, Team Horgan

Championship: Team Epping def. Team Dunstone


WOMEN

Stu Sells Oakville (Tour 500)

Oakville, ON

2017 Champion: Team Silvana Tirinzoni

Format: 26 team triple knockout with 8 qualifiers

Top Teams Entered (Top 15): Team Sinclair, Team Robertson, Team Tirinzoni, Team Einarson

Favourite: Nobody seems to love this event more than Switzerland's Silvana Tirinzoni. Tirinzoni enters the 2018 edition as the two-time defending champion aiming to become the first #3peat winner of the event. The past few seasons she has knocked off home province favourites for the title: Sherry Middaugh (2017) and Allison Flaxey (2016). Add in the fact Tirinzoni also won this title in 2014, she is looking for her 4th title here in 5 years. Now of course this season will see a slight change in the team in front of her, joining forces with former Swiss rival Alina Paetz. Paetz will continue to throw fourth stones but Tirinzoni is staying in the house as skip and throwing third stones. Add in the experienced former skip Melanie Barbezat at lead and this should be a formidable team. Tirinzoni has long been a force to watch out for at tour events over the past few seasons but adding a new, stronger stacked line-up in front of her, not to mention the momentum of competing at the 2018 Winter Olympics last season, this could be her year to claim a world title and once again put #HoppSchwiiz back at the top of the curling mountain.

#TeamUpset: Always be weary of a team with revenge on their mind in a new season. No team may be looking to wear #TeamRevenge more than Ontario's Danielle Inglis. Inglis had a storybook rookie season with the new team last year, reaching the Ontario Scotties final. While she may have lost the final (to her opening round opponent Hollie Duncan btw), she did join Team Duncan at the Scotties as fifth. Plus she did win a Canadian Mixed title last season. Inglis enters the season ranked #42 in the world but this could be the perfect event for her to move up those rankings and stake her claim as one of the top Ontario teams to battle favourite Team Homan for the Ontario crown this season. Plus the skipper is a #TwineTimeFam member after all....but that aside, I would not underestimate this team playing on home province ice. How they navigate their sophomore season together will be the big question but #TwineTime did list them as one of the #TeamUpset contenders in the season preview.

W2W4: This will be the first event of the season for many of the top ranked teams, including Tirinzoni and USA's Jamie Sinclair. But there are a few young gun teams to keep your eye on this weekend, namely Sweden's Isabella Wrana. Wrana is the 2017 world junior champion and won the silver medal at the 2018 world junior championships. With Sweden celebrating the success of Team Hasselborg's big Olympic win last season, they must also be quite confident with the future of their national team having Wrana ready to step into the women's game more frequently now that she is 21 years old. Over the past few years this blog has been very vocal in throwing support behind Wrana and claiming her to be perhaps the future star of the sport, not just for Sweden but internationally as well. This season could be the perfect time to really have a break-out year. She already enters the season ranked #19 in the world and a strong result here could propel her into grand slam qualification territory already. And speaking of #gsoc qualification, also watch out for Japan's Sayaka Yoshimura. This is already her third event of the season and they are coming off a championship win last week on this very same ice.

Qualifiers: Team Tirinzoni, Team Yoshimura, Team Robertson, Team Einarson, Team Sinclair, Team Wrana, Team Inglis, Team Feltscher

Championship: Team Tirinzoni def. Team Sinclair


HDF Insurance Shoot-Out (Tour 500)

Edmonton, AB

2017 Champion: Team Eve Muirhead

Format: 15 team RR with 3 pools of 5. Top 6 qualify.

Top Teams Entered (Top 15): Team Walker, Team Carey

Favourite: This may be a bit of a surprise favourite tag, based on the current world rankings anyway, but Casey Scheidegger should be considered the favourite heading into this event. And here are some reasons why. For one, of those top teams competing in the field they are the only team who did not face an off-season change to their team. They are the same team who found success in the past, winning a #gsoc title and their first Alberta Scotties title last season. We have already seen early in this season newly formed teams have struggled a bit in their first competitive event of the season. Which leads me to point number two. This is a field littered with teams making the season debut. Yes there will be some strong contenders in the field (Walker, Carey) but hitting the ice for the first time with players you are already familiar with is an advantage for the Lethbridge foursome. The only disadvantage perhaps is they were drawn into the toughest of the three pools, combined with threat Allison Flaxey (playing their second event together as a new team) and always dangerous Sherry Anderson. But the early challenges could work to their advantage and if they can get on a role early and perhaps be sitting 3-0 prior to the final RR game vs. Flaxey, they are going to be a dangerous team to contend with.

#TeamUpset: Alberta teams may dominate the field but I would be very wary of the one non-Canadian team in this field: Russia's Alina Kovaleva. The name may not be super familiar to curling fans but the resume certainly is. Kovaleva used to play vice for former Russian champ Victoria Moiseeva back in the 2015/16 season. Kovaleva is now skipping and is joined by another past Team Moiseeva player Uliana Vasilyeva. Vasilyeva, now playing second, was vice on the 2016 European championship team with Moiseeva. And speaking of the vice position, Team Kovaleva will be joined by Anastasia Bryzgalova. If you watched the 2018 Winter Olympics, you may know her. She, along with partner on and off the ice Alexander Krushelnitskiy, represented Russia in mixed doubles. They originally won the bronze medal but were later stripped of the medal due to a positive testing from Krushelnitskiy. This will be the first time we have really seen Bryzgalova on the ice since the incident in PyeongChang. But don't let this deter you from her ability. Remember she is a world mixed (2016) and world mixed doubles (2016) champion. Combine these three players, add in a fresh junior face of Ejkaterina Kuzmina at lead, and this team could catch a few teams by surprise and make a playoff run in Edmonton.

W2W4: This is a heavy pro-Alberta field. Team Scheidegger. Team Walker. Team Carey. Team Rocque. The home province fans in curling hotbed Edmonton will have no shortage of top contending teams to cheer for. The fun part will be seeing how those three new teams (Walker, Carey, Rocque) look on the ice for the first time. But don't undersell a few Saskatchewan teams as well trying to take over the ice. Robyn Silvernagle has joined forces with former Saskatchewan champion Stephanie Lawton this season. And, as mentioned above, Sherry Anderson is the current Saskatchewan Scotties champ, albeit with a different line-up. Plus Anderson is the current Canadian and World senior champ. Silvernagle/Lawton and Anderson bring a ton of experience on the ice and could be dangerous dark horse teams to watch out for this weekend.

Qualifiers: Team Carey, Team Walker, Team Scheidegger, Team Flaxey, Team Rocque, Team Silvernagle

Championship: Team Scheidegger def. Team Walker


We are starting to really get into the season now folks with a few of the top contending teams in Canada taking the ice for the first time this weekend. Both events in Oakville and Edmonton field a strong group of contenders with a few #TeamUpset possibilities. What say you rock heads and stoners? Who do you think emerges with championship glory Sunday in all three events?

Enjoy the action on the ice!

* = under the proposed #TwineTime tour model