#PowerRankings W12

#BetweenTheSheets: Return of the #IceBubbleWatch

And a new #1 on the mountain....thanks to Snowmageddon?

A few weeks ago the blog brought back the (in)famous #IceBubbleWatch to discuss the upcoming Canada Cup in Leduc, AB at the beginning of December.

The field of 14 has 12 confirmed teams with the final men's and women's team to be determined based on the Canadian Team Ranking System (CTRS) as of November 11.

We looked at the #IceBubbleWatch three weeks ago. We are four weeks away from the cut-off point. We have a full slate of #ROCKtober games to be played, including TWO #gsoc events with one being a major.

Now seems like the perfect time to take a glimpse into the Ice Bubble and see if any team has made significant progress towards the final Canada Cup spot. Has a team emerged as the overwhelming leader? Has a team or teams put themelve(s) onto the Bubble Watch? Or has a team or teams played their way out of contention?

It may be a bit cloudy with chances of a snow storm in the near future but lets take a updated look at the #IceBubbleWatch.

When we last looked at the men's Ice Bubble, Manitoba's Team Calvert was in the pole position being chased closely by Ontario's Team McDonald, Saskatchewan's Team Dunstone and Manitoba's Team Gunnlaugson.

Here is what the men's Canada Cup bubble looks like now:

IN: Team McDonald (95.853, CTRS #3)

BUBBLE: Team Calvert (83.547, #4), Team Gunnlaugson (75.342, #6), Team Muyres (73.833, #7)

OUT: Team McEwen (69.975, #8), Team Dunstone (69.954, #9), Team T. Horgan (67.565, #11)

We have a new front-runner. Team McDonald has moved up the rankings, thanks in part to their bronze medal win in South Korea coupled with the runner-up finish in Hokkaido to open the season and the SF result at Stu Sells Oakville.

Team Calvert drops from IN onto the BUBBLE but is well within striking range. Calvert has three SF results this season and is in prime position to still claim the final spot. Similar for Team Gunnlaugson, who remains on the bubble and in contention.

Moving up this month is Saskatchewan's Team Muyres, who were previously in the OUT category but now find themselves right on the bubble. They will not be at The Masters; however, they did qualify for the Tour Challenge Tier II where they will try to #DefendTheIce in the final event before the cut-off.

One Sasky team moves up to replace the spot of another. Team Dunstone took a hit the other way, falling off the BUBBLE and now sitting in the clear OUT category. Dunny did not have a great result in Korea, causing the slight drop in the standings.

And speaking of Korea, Manitoba's Team McEwen moved from not even in the discussion to OUT category. McEwen JUST made the cut for The Masters field, plus the Tour Challenge Tier I, so he could control his own fate. Of course similar arguments can be made for front-runner Team McDonald and Bubble Teams Calvert and Gunnlaugson.

For the women's #IceBubbleWatch, Team Fleury looked to be in complete control of claiming the final spot last time we peered into the bubble. They had a commanding 21-point lead on their closest competition, Team Rocque. Could Bubble contenders Rocque, Team Baldson or Team Cannon close the gap in the past few weeks? What about Out nominees Team Horton, Team Peterson and Team Walker? Or could a new team emerge, similar to Team McEwen above, and be playing themselves into consideration?

The new women's Canada Cup bubble looks like this:

LOCK: Team Fleury (131.765, #1)

BUBBLE: Team Rocque (106.024, #4)

OUT: Team Baldson (74.499, #8), Team Peterson (58.568, #9), Team Brunton (57.304, #10)

Lets be real here. This is now a two-team race. Our OUT candidates probably really are out of the conversation.

Team Fleury remains the front-runner as they stay ranked #1 on the CTRS. In fact their previous 21-point lead has now increased to 25-points. Team Rocque is still hanging on but the thread is getting thin and slowly starting to break away. Fleury's SF result in Calgary this weekend, coupled with Rocque failing to qualify and only picking up a single win, might have been the real nail in the coffin on this discussion.

Both of these teams will be competing at the upcoming slams so, in theory, Rocque has a shot to catch Fleury. But Rocque will basically need to win her first #gsoc event, hope Fleury fails to qualify and then might just have to do it all over again at the Tour Challenge.

It is not impossible but it may seem improbable now for anyone to deny Team Fleury their spot in the Canada Cup field. The blog is going out on a limb here and locking in Team Fleury for the final spot.

The women's #IceBubbleWatch may be growing colder by the week; however, the men's #IceBubbleWatch seems to be heating up the ice with a handful of teams still realistically cling to the hope of landing a ticket to Leduc.

With the holiday weekend in the rear view mirror, everyone hitting the gym to work off the turkey and stuffing and the busiest weekend of the curling season all under our belts, time to look back at who were the top winners and who rode the struggle bus this past weekend.

#GunnerRunback

#INturn

• The women were able to be thankful for curling this weekend in Calgary at the #CCAutumnGold. The 42nd annual event saw #HERstory made when Team Einarson became the first team in the history of the event to #DefendTheIce. Skipper Kerri Einarson became the first skip to defend the title since the late 1980's. Einarson defeated home province favourite Team Scheidegger, with #SuperSpare Cheryl Bernard at skip, in the final. This was also the first-ever final contested between the two A-qualifiers (who also split the skins game on Saturday). As an aside, Casey Scheidegger was in attendance cheering on her team and helping with coaching behind the glass. She and her soon to be arriving baby boy are healthy and happy. The blog wishes the #TwineTimeFam member and her family all the best. And I am sticking with November 14 as the perfect due date!
• Make it 2 for 2 in Basel for the home nation. Fresh off home nation favourite Team De Cruz winning the men's title in Basel last weekend, defending world champs Team Tirinzoni ensured it would be #HoppSchwiiz cheering again this weekend. Tirinzoni took home the #BaselMasters title knocking off future #SwedishVikings Team Wrana in the final. In fact the SF saw 3 home nation teams competing with Team Feltscher (skipped by #TwineTimeFam member Binia Feltscher) and Team Schori (skipped by former Feltscher vice Irene Schori) rounding out the Final Four.
• At the #DrivingForceCashspiel in Abbotsford, it was #DefendTheIce for the men and #UnfinishedBusiness for the women. Japan's Team Matsumura successfully retained their championship by defeating Team Montgomery in the final. Matsumura only went 2-2 in the RR but hit their stride when it mattered most. On the women's side, Team Brown continues to make a claim as the B.C. favourites this year when they defeated #TeamUpset ambassador Team Richards in the final. For Brown it was resolving unfinished business from last year when they lost the championship final to rival Team Wark. Brown would go undefeated this year in claiming the title.
• In Halifax at the #NewScotlandCashspiel, welcome back Mary Mattatall! The former provincial champ returned to the winner's circle turning back the clock and defeated #TeamUpset ambassador Team Hilliard in the final. At the men's #BudLightCashspiel, Chad Stevens must have disliked being mentioned in the blog #OUTturn a few weeks ago as his squad went 4-1 in the RR en route to winning the #Tour250 title, knocking off Team MacDougall in the final.
• Team Harty goes back-to-back with championship victories after claiming the #McKeeFallClassic title in Airdrie, AB. Harty would go undefeated en route to knocking off fellow A-qualifier Team Glukhov from Russia in the final. Harty is quickly establishing himself as the #TeamUpset ambassador for the Alberta title this season with this results on home province ice.
• In Levis, QC, a #TeamUpset emerged victorious at the new #LaClassique event. Vincent Roberge defeated defending provincial champion Martin Crete in the final to claim the title. For Roberge, he would take the long road to the title having to qualify out of the #CSideGrind, including knocking off brother Francois Roberge in the C final. Crete on the other hand qualified A-side and was looking to start off their season with a perfect record only to be denied in the final. Worth mentioning the #TeamUpset nominee in the blog preview, Team Menard (a mixed team btw), qualified out of the A-side as well only to be "upset" in the SF by Roberge.
• At the #KalamazooClassic, it was an all-Canadian final on American ice with Team Kelly knocking off defending champion Team Law to claim the title. The playoffs would see 4 Canadian and 4 American teams reach the bracket. The SF would be split as well but the Canadians would get the best of their southern counterparts to reach the final.
• This week's #QRollCall is packed with mentions. Reaching the SF this weekend: Team Fujisawa, Team Fleury (Calgary), Team Wark, Team Eby, Team Wenzek, Team Geall (Abbotsford), Team Adams, Team van Amsterdam (Airdrie), Team Birt, Team C. Jones, Team K. Thompson, Team S. Thompson (Halifax), Team Munroe (Levis), Team Corbett, Team Larson (Kalamazoo). Reaching the QF this weekend: Team Carey, Team J. Jones, Team Nakajima, Team E. Kim (Calgary), Team Sidorova, Team Stern, Team Schoepp, Team Heurlimann (Basel), Team Daniels, Team Gushulak, Team Pewarchuk, Team Gyles, Team Cotter (Abbotsford), Team Sluchinki, Team K. Park, Team Cross, Team Libbus (Airdrie), Team Power, Team Moore, Team Manuel, Team Weagle (Halifax), Team Desjardins, Team Ferland (Levis), Team Maerki, Team Imes, Team Dolsen, Team Sussman (Kalamazoo).

#OUTturn

• Thank you #Snowmageddon for ruining one of the biggest and most anticipated men's #wct event of the season. The #CanadInnsClassic in Portage was snowed out. Some teams were not even able to make it to Portage. Some had only half of their players arrive safely. There was even a power outage for a majority of the day on Saturday, thus ending any hopes of getting the event out of the hack. Heck the hacks were turning into water with no power to keep the ice frozen. In the end the only winner was Mother Nature. This was a #Tour1000 event too so being unable to compete will impact the rankings. But more on that below....
• #Snowmaggedon was not the only win for Mother Nature this weekend. The #MitsumiCup, a new #Tour250 event in Miyota, Japan, was also postponed due to Typhoon Hagibis. Maybe we should move Mother Nature onto the men's Power Rankings this week?
• We discuss the success of top teams in Calgary but it wasn't all cheers and Thanksgiving thanks for everyone. What happened to Korea's Team Gim? A few weeks ago they won a tour title and this past weekend they go 0-for. What gives? This is a team on the cusp of breaking into Top 20 territory but not without better consistent results. Similar to Russia's Team Kovaleva. A SF showing one weekend and failing to qualify the next. Yes they picked up 3 wins but they still failed to qualify. And this team has been practicing on the very same Calgary ice for the past month or so. Team Rocque as well. They won the title in Vernon and then arrive in Calgary and only pick up 1 win. As the blog mantra goes, if you want to move up the mountain: consistency, consistency, consistency.
• You get a playoff spot. And you get a playoff spot. And you get a playoff spot. We all get a playoff spot. 8 teams competing. 8 playoff qualifiers. Huh? At the women's event in Abbotsford, the field only had 8 teams enter. Rather than reduce the playoff bracket to 4 teams, all 8 teams qualified for the playoffs. In one way, great! All the teams make some money. All the team are guaranteed a minimum 4 games. All teams pick up some points. On the flip side, really? Really? This seems like millennial stereotype thinking. Team Eby went 0-3 in the RR, won one game (QF) and ends up taking home SF points and money. For 1 win?!? No knock on the 8 teams who did compete. You play the hand you are dealt. But this just seemed a bit ridiculous.

How did the action on the ice (and lack of action in some cases) affect the Power Rankings mountain? We have a new men's #1 and a swapping of spots within the Top 5 for the women.

#PowerRankings

MEN

1. Team Koe - 6675 (LW: 2)
2. Team Bottcher - 6313 (1)
3. Team Mouat - 5560 (3)
4. Team De Cruz - 5540 (4)
5. Team Paterson - 5382 (5)

Hon. Mention: Team Epping, Team Edin, Team Gushue, Team Jacobs, Team Muirhead

Snowmaggedon in Portage blew Team Bottcher right off the top of the mountain while lifting up main rival Team Koe to the top. With the event being snowed out Bottcher was unable to #DefendTheIce and lost the 1000 points earned last season from winning the #Tour1000 event.

Now of course Koe also took a loss, having reached the final last year, of 600 points. But look at the difference between the two teams. The 400 points IS the difference. Bottcher lost 400 points more from Portage fallout so they took the slightly harder hit down the mountain. Out of respect for both, lets just call it a dead heat still atop the mountain.

The rest of the Top 10 stay relatively unchanged. The Brad's swapped spots again. This time Gushue moving up to #8 and Jacobs dropping to #9 due to Jacobs losing his 360 SF points earned last year while Gushue did not compete in Portage so he suffered no loss due to the storm.

The Scottish teams remain in the same positions as the European Playdowns are not point eligible. Props go out to Team Paterson though who won the playdown event, defeating Team Muirhead 2 games to 1 in the Best-of-3 final, and will represent Scotland at the European Curling Championships in Helsinborg, Sweden next month.

But there is one debut in the Top 20. Russia's Team Glukhov reached the final in Airdrie, following up the QF appearance the week prior in Basel, to crack the Top 20 at #19.


WOMEN

1. Team Homan - 8300 (1)
2. Team Einarson - 6690 (2)
3. Team Tirinzoni - 5875 (4)
4. Team Hasselborg - 5640 (3)
5. Team Carey - 4422 (5)

Hon. Mention: Team J. Jones, Team Kovaleva, Team Fujisawa, Team Fleury, Team Scheidegger

Team Einarson did #DefendTheIce in Calgary and thus holds down the house at #2 this week. Had Einarson not reached the final they would have tumbled down the mountain a bit. But Einarson holds on to the 1000 points earned from the #Tour1000 event.

Team Tirinzoni continues to climb the mountain, even if it is at a slow consistent pace. The win in Basel was JUST enough to pass over idle Team Hasselborg for the week.

The big winner might also be Team Carey. Last year in Calgary they failed to reach the playoffs. This year they reached the QF so they saw a nice point gain. Combined with those teams around them failing to defend their points as well means Carey holds strong at the #5 spot.

Team Scheidegger's run to the final in Calgary moves them back into the Top 10 for the first time since Week 6, knocking former #10 Team Muirhead off the mountain.

And props to Germany's Team Jentsch, who may have failed to qualify in Calgary but did score enough points to rise to #15 just passing Japan's Team Yoshimura and only 25 points behind USA's Team Roth for #14 and 70 points behind Russia's Team Sidorova for #13. Jenstch announced this week they received an invite for the Tour Challenge Tier II #gsoc event in November as well. A huge milestone for a team who has put in the work, and seen the results, over the past 12 months.

It is also worth mentioning sometimes the old saying "the cream rises to the top" comes true on the curling ice. In Calgary, 6 of the 8 qualifiers currently sit in the Top 10. Of the Top 20, 7 of 8 made the playoffs while 2 more lost C-qualifiers (Muirhead, Jentsch).

#StayTuned

The pre-major week on tour kicks off with many top teams competing at #wct events in preparation for The Masters the following weekend.

The women will have 4 events, highlighted by trying their luck in Portage for a #Tour1000 event. There will also be 2 #Tour500 events and 1 #Tour250 event.

The men will also have 4 events to contend with, including two #Tour1000 events in Champery, Switzerland and Medicine Hat, Alberta. There will also be 2 #Tour250 events.

PLUS remember the World Mixed Curling Championships will wrap up this weekend in Scotland. The blog thought a preview post went out last weekend but apparently hitting publish is the same as hitting delete when editing on your phone and everything disappeared. Ugh!

For the record, my #WMxCC2019 medal picks were: Russia (G), Switzerland (S) and Germany (B). Rounding out my Top 8 were: Canada, Scotland, Hungary, Spain, USA.

The blog returns later in the week to highlight the full Tour Challenge announcement and offer up the #TourLifePredictions for the weekend.

Enjoy your week rock heads!