#Brier2021 Preview

#BetweenTheSheets: The Boys Enter The Bubble

Bring on the Tim Horton's Brier - #IceBubble Edition

The Tankard brings all the boys to the yard....or, in this case, the #IceBubble.

Canada's top female competitors stepped in the bubble over the past few weeks and sent shivers up the spines of curling fans around the world.

The ladies brought the competition, no questions asked.

Now we ask, "What you got for us gentlemen?"

Pressure on. Bring it on boys!

Lets clear the elephant in the room right from the get go. There has been SO MUCH chatter on social media this week about the upcoming Canadian Mixed Doubles Curling Championships. From teams not being invited to lack of transparency on qualification criteria to people just being upset, everything hit the virtual ice this week.

BUT, if you are looking for the blog to weigh in on all of this hoopla dramatics right now, sorry to disappoint. You are pebbling the wrong ice surface.

This is the 2021 Tim Hortons Brier Preview. We are going to talk about the 2021 Tim Hortons Brier.

The men who are stepping foot inside the #IceBubble for this competition deserve the attention right now. What has happened regarding mixed doubles is done. It will not change. So lets focus on the event right in front of us right now, shall we?

Do not think this means we are putting these issues to rest rockheads. Oh no, you know #TwineTime has some thoughts. But why not save those for the #CMDCC2021 Preview....coming to a sheet near you AFTER the Brier. Write your concerns and comments on the parking lot and we will cover it at a later time.

Sound good? Lets move on...

#PowerRankings

The Power Rankings return! And it happens to be March which means #MarchMadness. The time of the year when all we want to talk about are seeds and upsets and favourites and resumes. Lets Go!!

Again, as a reminder for those new to the house, the seed is based on the #TwineTime Power Rankings system. This is a slightly altered system compared to the current CTRS commonly known and used. More info on the blog system, developed in 2018, can be found HERE.

Worth noting the Power Rankings are for ALL teams competing around the world and not just a ranking system for Canadian teams only.

Similar to the #STOH2021 Preview, based on seeding from the Final Power Rankings in April 2020, lets break down the teams and ask a few questions on what we should watch for (Ranking, Odds to win via Bodog):

1. #FearTheMoose - Team Jacobs (#1, +375): The boys from Sault Ste. Marie arrive as a top Brier contender. They earned the top seed due to their outstanding play pre-COVID and planting the NOCA flag atop Power Rankings mountain. We know they have the pedigree to win, they are former champions after all. And we know they are almost a lock for the playoffs, they bring it to you every year. But, there is the rub with this team. They can get to the playoffs but then they fizzle out. A combined 1-8 record over the past 6 Briers. Yikes! 1 playoff win. It is almost shocking to see this stat. The big question is whether playoff Jacobs from the past shows up in Calgary or playoff Jacobs of the present? Also, remember last year's dismal 1-3 start before going on the roll and winning 2 TB games just to make the playoffs? I wouldn't recommend a similar start this year.

2. #TeamCanada - Team Gushue (#2, +200): Look who's back in the house. The champs are back in the house. And are overwhelming favourites to #DefendTheIce. Unlike a majority of their competition, they have had some competitive ice time during COVID. Ok sure it may have only been 12 games but they went 12-0 so they do arrive sitting perfect. Plus they get the added bonus of welcoming back lead Geoff Walker to the team. Walker has not curler with them since winning the Brier one year ago. As long as he has no ice rust on the slider, expect this team to be on the ice playoff weekend. They saw Team Einarson repeat last weekend. Can they do the same and pull the Tim Hortons Double Double? Of note, Gushue will be chasing #HIStory this year trying to win his 4th Brier. The victory would tie him with legends Ernie Richardson, Randy Ferbey, Kevin Martin and Kevin Koe.

3. #CurlON - Team Epping (#3, +750): Speaking of the #2 seed, who do they draw in their opener Friday night? The #3 seed from Ontario, Team Epping. Epping had a breakout performance in his Brier rookie campaign, reaching the podium with a bronze medal at the 2018 Brier in Regina. Last year, in his sophomore year, he fell just short of the playoffs after a TB loss to Jacobs. What should we expect this year? A Champ Pool spot? For sure. In the playoff hunt? Yes. On the podium? Unknown. The team is seeded third yet feels more like a dark horse contender? Why? The Brier experience may not be as telling compared to the top seeds around them but Epping has shown on tour and in #GSOC events he should never be undersold.

4. #WC1 - Team McEwen (#6, +650): I guess Mike McEwen likes the Wild Card format, hey? This will be the third time McEwen has had the Wild Card emblem on his back and the second straight. McEwen has long been dubbed one of the best in the sport to not win a Canadian championship. Could this be his year? This will be his 6th straight Brier appearance. But is time running out? McEwen is 40 years old, which is not old by any stretch of the imagination, but there are some high power young bucks chasing the spotlight right now. Plus McEwen has failed to reach the playoffs the past three years. McEwen has the game. We just need to see the fire and love for playing we used to see when he made his Brier debut. Bring back the fire and we could see a deep run for him here inside the #IceBubble. Hmmm, we sure miss those red pants too don't we?!?

5. #ABStrong - Team Bottcher (#8, +500): Well talk about a team who is due? First team to get a mention might just be Alberta's Team Bottcher. Three straight Briers. Three straight finals. Three straight silver medals. What do you with that as an athlete? You have two options. Be proud of the accomplishment as many players don't ever see a Brier nor a Brier playoff nor a Brier final and you have done it three times....in a row! Or you wallow in the defeat a bit and start questioning if you can ever make it happen. We know this team is tough. The hunger for redemption will be there. But they need to fight off the small negative thoughts which can creep in during a long week of competition, especially if there are any struggles early. We saw Laura Walker turn the mental corner at the Scotties and land on the podium. This should give Team Bottcher motivation and inspiration as well. Championship contender for sure.

6. #TeamGreen - Team Dunstone (#10, +1000): Last year's feel good story was Team Dunstone's run to the podium. They finished tied atop their opening round pool. They navigated a tricky Champ Pool to reach the 1 vs. 2 PPG but then became unraveled in the playoffs. Two straight playoff loses and the dream ended. However, picking up a bronze medal for a province YEARNING for a return to championship glory (last title in 1980 remember) is huge. But this team is not going to catch anyone off guard anymore. Last year they were a dark horse who flew under the radar. Not happening this year. Expectations are high, from the team and from the fans. This team is now a contender. We will see how they respond to the higher profile. Again, unlike some of their competitors, this team did get in some competitive curling at a few events in Regina during COVID. They went 10-1 and won both. ICYMI, listen HERE to the #TwineTime podcast chat with skipper Matt Dunstone before stepping on the ice for the Brier.

7. #BuffaloHunt - Team Gunnlaugson (#16, +1200): See above for Mike McEwen when talking about Jason Gunnlaugson. Before making his debut last year, Gunnlaugson was highly touted as one of the best players in the nation yet to step foot on Brier ice. He arrived last year and made quite a lot of noise throughout the week. No, not just from his loud line calling and energetic personality but also because of his shot making ability. Remember the now infamous "Manitoba Miracle" shot? Gunnalaugson and his Manitoba champions (yes, I am still calling them Manitoba champions because nobody has technically dethroned them) are probably flying a bit under the radar again this year. They reached the Champ Pool last year and will be a contender to do so again this year. They have a high seed based on their WCT performance. Gunner has the "curling brain" to make things happen...but sometimes the brain works overtime and he makes the game harder on himself than he needs to. Lets see what happens with the sophomore appearance.

8. #WC2 - Team Koe (#17, +375): No, this is a not a misprint. Yes, Team Koe is seeded #8. Yes, this is based on the Power Rankings and is accurate. Yes, you can be shocked. Is Team Koe the eighth best team in the field? Probably not, they are probably much higher based on resume alone. However, they did not have the best season, by their standards, before COVID hit. They struggled at times at last years Brier, squeezing into the TB scenario but coming up short. It is a bit of an unknown as to what we see from the team this year. They have Johnny Mo supporting the team, a huge pick up for sure. They are past champions. And Koe is chasing #HIStory as well in trying to become the first skip to win 5 Brier titles. Always dangerous. Always a contender. But less threatening this year compared to the past few years? And no, your eyes are not deceiving you. This really is Team Koe, not a new look Team Edin or a Swedish curling team trying to sneak into the Canadian championship to avoid playing Edin back home. Those jerseys sure look like a similar two-tone color scheme we see the sponsors use for another team they also sponsor during the season. The color palette ran out? Creativity dipping low? What about orange?

9. #WC3 - Team Howard (#23, +1200): Speaking about #HIStory, welcome back Glenn Howard as the final team to be granted a spot in the 18-team field. 2021 marks the 18th Brier appearance for Howard. 18 appearances folks! Yowie Wowie. Impressive stat to say the least. Howard does enter the #IceBubble at less than 100% though, due to a recent snowmobile accident. You know you are Canadian when you are injured in a snowmobile accident and still show up to play a Canadian curling championship. We are tough as nails in Canada...be warned world! The team will rep a 5-player rotation as Howard welcomes back good friend Wayne Middaugh to the team. How the rotation will work and who will be playing when and where is still a bit unknown. Expect to see Middaugh get ice time though and he is one of the best throwers ever in the game. A title threat? Hmmm, who knows. You never want to undersell experience. At the same time, this field is going to be a dog fight.

10. #TeamBluenose - Team Murphy/McDonald (#32, +5000): It will be interesting to see how this team responds to a shift in leadership. Jamie Murphy, regular skip of the defending NS champs, was unable to enter the #IceBubble due to personal reasons. Enter former Ontario champ Scott McDonald to take the reigns. Interesting choice. They have not curled together and there could be a feeling out process. Team Murphy is a solid team. They are seeded #10 for a reason. They have reached the Champ Pool before as well (2018) and just finished a game behind last year. They will be a challenger to advance but it will not be easy. They are going to need to upset at least one, if not two, of the higher seeds to keep play going into the second weekend. But if they come together as a unit quick, do not sleep on them giving the "big" names a challenge.

11. #TeamPacific - Team Laycock (#41, +2200): Seems weird to see Steve Laycock/Jim Cotter seeded so low. Both have strong past Brier resumes. In 2019 they reached the Champ Pool. Last year, they were riding the struggle bus. Which team shows up in 2021? Laycock will take on full skipper duties this year, slightly different from last year when Laycock skipped but Cotter threw fourth stones. We know this team can play and contend with the best teams in the nation. They also got some competitive ice time in this season, reaching the playoffs at both events they were able to enter. We just have to find out which team shows up here. Will last year's 2-5 record be just a small blip on the overall resume for this team?

12. #Labelleprovince - Team Fournier (#50, +5500): The horses are in Calgary. Ok, of course they are. It is Calgary. The city is known for horses. Hello Calgary Stampeders. But these are the horses on the ice. The self-named horses of curling. Quebec's Team Fournier will be making their sophomore Brier appearance. We last saw this team on Brier ice in 2018, finishing just outside the Champ Pool with a 3-4 record. The rookie rust should be gone by now as this team truly believes they are the best team in Quebec and can bring curling glory back to La belle province. Hey, look what Team St-Georges just pulled off inside the same bubble last week at the Scotties. Why can't french lightning strike twice in the same building? I was lucky enough to meet these guys in 2018 in Regina and can say they are a group of fun-loving dudes. Yes they take the sport serious but they also enjoy the experience. They were great with fans and won over the crowd in Regina, including my own brother who was seen waving a Quebec flag every time they stepped on the ice. Everyone loved cheering on #TeamFlow! Oh the magical hockey hair of lead Jean-François Trépanier! No fans this time might work slightly against this team because they fed off the crowd in Regina. On the flip side, Martin Crete did join this team and we all know how loud he can get in a game. Whether they are a TSN feature game or not, you will ALWAYS know when Quebec is on the ice. Could this team be #TeamUpset?

13. #TeamAcadia - Team Grattan (#51, +4000): Anyone else still refer to New Brunswick skip James Grattan as "Jimmy the Kid"? I still have a hard time not saying that. Grattan is certainly no kid. Grattan is now 46-years old and will be making his 14th Brier appearance. We saw the team compete last year and just miss out on the Champ Pool with a 3-4 record. They really were one of the nice surprises of the event, coming so close to knocking off some of the higher seeded favourites. We saw what Team Adams did at the Scotties, almost pulling off the shocker and pushing for a Champ Pool spot herself. Could Grattan win one extra game and make it happen, at least to reach a TB? He does enjoy playing in Calgary after all. His two podium finishes (both bronze) happened at Briers held in Calgary (1997, 2002). Note regular vice Paul Dobson did not make the trip into the bubble. Instead we see another member of Team McDonald make an appearance here as Jonathan Beuk will join the team.

14. #TheRock - Team Smith (#334, +12500): Mr. Energy returns to the Brier ice. Who doesn't remember Greg Smith's Brier debut in 2018 in Regina? He turned some heads with his high jumps, loud line calling and shot celebrations. He brought the energy onto the ice and the crowd loved it. Making his sophomore appearance, how will Smith follow up his Regina showing? There will be no crowds for him to feed off of...but then again maybe they actually fed more off him. This team played their way into the field, winning the NL Tankard in an epic 12-end finale. The competitive games should be an asset, especially opening weekend when perhaps their opposition is still finding their sliders. Smith won a single game in Regina. Expectations are moderate for the team against a stacked field. However, Sarah Hill did not have high expectations either and started the Scotties with a 2-0 record. If Smith can double, or triple, his win total from 2018, consider this a successful event. ICYMI, Smith spoke with the #TwineTime podcast after his NL Tankard win a few weeks ago. Take a listen HERE.

15. #TheIslanders - Team MacKenzie (NR, +6600): Is this becoming Brier 2018 redux? Welcome back another skip who was in Regina, Eddie MacKenzie. MacKenzie will once again represent PEI at the Brier, making his 7th appearance. Team MacKenzie also won their way into the field, dispatching contender Team Blair in three straight games of the Best-of-5 PEI Tankard. MacKenzie, with a different team, won 2 games in Regina. If he can replicate the feat here in Calgary, mark this appearance a success. The team will be in tough.

16. #PolarPower - Team Skauge (NR, +30000): This seems a bit weird right? With no disrespect to Team Skauge, it does feel strange to see NWT represented by a name other than Koe. 2021 will be the first Brier without Jamie Koe reppin' the #PolarPower since 2008. An impressive run. Now, to Koe's credit, he was not defeated for the NWT title. Koe made the decision to skip the NWT championship due to COVID restrictions. A decision we respect (and not just because he is a #TwineTimeFam member). I am sure it was not an easy decision to make but, as we know, decisions are made as to what is best for the player but also their family and careers. We hope to see Koe back on Brier ice in the future. But lets also not take anything away from Greg Skauge and his NWT champions. They did enter the NWT Tankard and won the championship in a Best-of-3 series vs. Team Hudy. Skauge has come close to reaching the Brier before, losing the NWT final to Koe in 2019 and 2016. And there is experience on this team. Vice Tom Naugler competed alongside Koe in 2011 and 2013. Lead Robert Borden played with Koe at 6 straight Briers (2013 - 2018). If Skauge and second Brad Patzer can draw off the experience of their teammates, this team could pick a few wins.

17. #PurplePower - Team Mikkelsen (NR, +25000): Dustin Mikkelsen and his team from Whitehorse will be making their Brier debut. It was a bit controversial on how Mikkelsen received his spot in the field. We thought initially there would be a Yukon Tankard competition but it ended up not happening. Due to a confusion over rules (to put it politely), defending champs Team Scoffin were unable to compete and try to defend their title. As Team Mikkelsen was the only other team entered, and Team Scoffin being deemed ineligible, Mikkelsen was awarded the Yukon title. And here they are. Hey, this is no fault of this team on how they got here. They got here. They will step on the Brier ice for the first time and nothing can take that moment away from them. Yukon went 0-7 last year so if they can somehow pick up at least one W in the expanded 8-game RR, already it would be considered a victory for the territory. It will be interesting to see how they do here.

18. #TeamArctic - Team Mackey (NR, +35000):  Team Mackey will be making their Brier debut in Calgary representing Nunavut. Expectations may be low for this team; however, they were not handed their spot in this field folks. They battled Team Kingdon in a tight Best-of-5 Nunavut Tankard. Kingdon won the opening two games. Mackey won the next three. Amazing! The battle back from this team shows a lot. They did not give up when their backs were against the wall. They are fighters. They are grinders. And the mental fight shown to win three straight games knowing one loss ends the dream is going to be helpful to them here. It will not be easy, lets be honest. But if they can keep fighting, who knows what will happen?!?

#TwineTimePredictions

Pool A

#W2W4:

Pool A was deemed the "stronger" pool at the Scotties. We may see history repeat itself at the Brier.

This pool is STACKED. Legit Champ Pool contenders: Bottcher, Laycock, Gunnlaugson, Jacobs, McEwen and Howard.

Folks, these are all top teams, big name players, WCT winners and #GSOC regulars.

What happens when you put 6 contenders, who in any given Brier field would be considered playoff contenders, in the same pool knowing only 4 will continue on into the Champ Pool? Who knows?!?

These teams could end up devouring one another leaving the remains for their Pool B competitors once we hit the Champ Pool. Or the 4 who survive could be on a roll and full of confidence and just steamroll their Pool B opposition and we end up with another Pool A podium.

If a team survives Pool A with only one loss, they should be considered strong favourites for the podium, whomever they are. Good luck and good curling to those 6 teams. No bingo squares for you!

#TeamUpset:

Well if 6 teams are considered Champ Pool contenders, who flies the #TeamUpset flag? 

My heart always aligns with James Grattan and New Brunswick. I always want to see him do well. I always want to see the province do well. They need good results and deserve something to cheer for. It is not always easy being a New Brunswick curling fan folks. There are more heartaches and disappointments than celebrations. Just once can we see the "little guy" emerge victorious?

But I also want to see how this new NWT does. As mentioned above, this is not a complete rookie team. Half of the team has been here and do know how to win games on Brier ice. Sure they are not a Champ Pool contender, not even a dark horse, but would I be surprised if they "upset" one of the Top 6? Not. At. All.

Projected Standings (Seed):

1. #FearTheMoose (1)

2. #ABStrong (5)

3. #WC1 (4)

4. #TeamPacific (11)

5. #WC3 (9)

6. #BuffaloHunt (7)

7. #TeamAcadia (13)

8. #PolarPower (16)

9. #PurplePower (17)

Pool B

#W2W4:

This pool is VERY top heavy. Gushue. Koe. Dunstone. Epping. These are not just curling heavyweights, there are curling champions. Gushue and Koe are chasing #HIStory. Dunstone and Epping are #GSOC champs who know how to win. The fight between these 4 teams is going to be intense. All 4 are overwhelming favourites to advance to the Champ Pool here, no disrespect to the other teams in this pool.

The big question will be who emerges atop the standings. Can anyone get out with only 1 loss (or go undefeated)? We saw at the Scotties what happens when a Pool full of 2-loss teams runs into the other pool. Could this happen again and we see Pool B get wiped out of podium consideration?

The Big 4 need to take care of business against the lower seeded teams, no easy task as there are some major #TeamUpset threats, and hope they can pull off at least a 2-1 record against one another. Even if a team advances out of this pool but is sitting with 3-losses, it might already be one too many to make a tight 3 team playoff bracket.

#TeamUpset:

Laurie St-Georges made it happen. Why should we not expect similar from Mike Fournier? Fournier even has Brier experience under his slider and the boys have a ton of confidence coming into the bubble. The horses are ready to run and, if those teams seeded above are not careful, they might be eating some dust on the ice. This Quebec team can contend and can challenge. Since their Brier appearance in 2018, we saw this team play more WCT events. We saw them travel outside their home province. These are elements we do not usually see out of Quebec teams. Why did they do it? For a moment like this. Cue Kelly Clarkson!

Also keep your eye on Nova Scotia. Team Murphy has been here before and reached the Champ Pool. Interim skip Scott McDonald has also been here before and also reached the Champ Pool. People might sleep on this team because of the big names mentioned above and you know what can happen when you get caught sleeping.

Projected Standings:

1. #TeamCanada (2)

2. #TeamGreen (6)

3. #WC2 (8)

4. #CurlON (3)

5. #Labelleprovince (12)

6. #TeamBluenose (10)

7. #TheRock (14)

8. #TheIslanders (15)

9. #TeamArctic (18)

Championship Pool Qualifiers: #FearTheMoose, #TeamCanada, #ABStrong, #TeamGreen, #WC1, #WC2, #TeamPacific, #CurlON

Playoff Qualifiers: #TeamCanada, #FearTheMoose, #TeamGreen

#STOH2021 CHAMPIONSHIP: #TeamCanada def. #FearTheMoose 

The Battle of Brads. Gushue vs. Jacobs. Sounds like a final I would want to watch. And why shouldn't we expect this as a possibility? These are two of the most consistent teams in the world, not just in Canada. Always competitive during tour season. Always championship threats at #GSOC events. Past Brier winners. Past Olympic champions. Seems like the stars should align here. We saw these two teams battle it out in the 3 vs. 4 PPG last year, obviously won by Gushue en route to the title. Can Jacobs get his revenge? But, similar to the Scotties prediction, I am aligning myself with our current Team Canada members. They were robbed of representing the Maple Leaf on the world championship stage a year ago and they deserve the right to do so. Sure it is a bit different compared to Team Einarson as Team Gushue has been there, done that. But that doesn't mean they don't deserve it still....and deserve it again.

And yes, I realize I did pick the majority of the same teams who reached the Championship Pool last year to do the same again this year. Come at me, bro! These are the top teams in Canada. These are the teams who will probably be the main challengers for the right to represent Canada at the Winter Olympics. Consider this another chapter, and an early eye test, to what we will see at the end of 2021.

#StayTuned

The updated #PowerRankings will continue as we monitor which teams are trending up and which are tumbling down.

And 'Big Red' returns! The STOH2021 Midterm Grades podcast was a success so we are doing it once again. Special Guest (and teacher) Casey Scheidegger will return to offer her commentary and hand out grades with me.

Do not forget to sign up for the Fantasy Curling offering by Curling Canada. You can sign up and play for FREE. Register a team name and pick the winners of every game. I am sure the majority of you beat me during the Scotties Pick'Em so I am back to earn my redemption....and revenge!

Fantasy Salary Cap Curling is back as well. Sign up to play, for free, HERE.

Good luck and good curling to those competing....and THANK YOU once again to all the athletes, organizers and volunteers who come together to make this event happen while a pandemic continues around us.