#BetweenTheSheets: Watching The Olympic (Ice) Bubble
Are you close to an Olympic ticket or did your bubble burst?
The narrative heading into the 2021 World Men's Curling Championship was how many losses could you afford to put on the board to keep you in the playoff hunt and, ultimately, punch your ticket into the Winter Olympics field.
As we move past the half-way point of the competition, has the narrative really changed?
Maybe a small fraction as we start to see separation in the standings.
Some teams have been eliminated from earning direct Olympic berth.
A few teams look to be in a pretty comfortable position.
And some are going to have to step up their game...and maybe need a little help.
Lets look at the Olympic #IceBubble.
The pre-event assumption was 3 losses next to your name would safely lock up a spot in the Olympic field for your nation. It looks like 3 losses may still get you a bye to the SF even.
4 losses was assumed to also be a safe bet. Right now, 4 losses may JUST squeak you in as the last team to get the Olympic ticket and possibly the number 6 seed in the playoffs.
There was a possibility 5 losses could nab you that coveted final spot but, based on current standings, this appears to be the pivotal cut line. Five Alive? Not at this world championship!
Here is how the Olympic/Playoff bubble looks based on current standings and strength of schedule:
Lock: None
Should Be In: Sweden
Closing In: Canada
Still Work To Do: Norway, RCF, Scotland
On The Bubble: USA, Switzerland
Needs Help: Italy
Eliminated: Japan, Germany, Denmark, China, Korea, Netherlands
The only 'Lock' we can count on is knowing the Top 6 who make the playoffs will qualify their nation for the Winter Olympics due to China being eliminated.
We also know the Olympic Qualification Event in December will have 3 Olympic spots up for grabs.
The numbers we know. The nations are still a bit unknown.
For the updated Power Rankings, lets break down each team's SOS (Strength of Schedule) and find out what they need to do to move into 'Lock' status.
Bring on the Updated Power Rankings!
Note in parenthesis is the team record and the ranking listed is their previous ranking from the Day 4 #PowerRankings blog post.
#PowerRankings
1. Norway - Team Walstad (7-1, #1): Hold on to your toque Norge fans, the schedule is about to heat up. Norway has 5 games remaining. 3 are against teams one game behind you in the standings (CAN, RCF, SCO). Your games on Wednesday are against teams fighting for their playoff (and Olympic) lives. Norway has impressed thus far. The next two days will show if this team is indeed a championship threat. They can afford to go 2-3 over the next two days and probably be safe. Anything less than 2 wins, they could go from 1st to 7th in 48 hours. Next Up: USA, ITA, BYE
2. Sweden - Team Edin (7-2, #2): 4 games remain. 3 against teams already eliminated. Wednesday night is the key game vs. fellow fav Canada. The winner likely secures a SF spot and, probably, will become the first team to officially lock down an Olympic spot. The record of Sweden's other three opponents? 6-19! This team is in the driver's seat for a first place finish. A 10-3 record at worst might still land you a SF spot and/or top of the standings. Next Up: CHN, BYE, CAN
3. Canada - Team Bottcher (7-2, #4): Wednesday is a big day for Canada. They are playing teams currently tied with them in the standings. They went 2-0 on Tuesday but did so in a very non-impressive way. This team will need to step up their game against two teams who are coming in hot. Win both, Olympic berth secured and the fight for first is still on the line as they draw Norway Thursday night. These next three games can make or break this team. Next Up: BYE, #VOL, SWE
4. Scotland - Team Mouat (7-2, #5): The buzz around Scotland remains minimal but here they are at 7-2 and in a good position to advance. However, their remaining schedule is not going to be easy. Similar to standings leader Norway, they play two teams fighting for a playoff spot on Wednesday. What do they get after those two games? Just games vs. Norway and #TeamVoldemort. They control their fate but the closing schedule is going to be tough. They need to, worse case scenario, split the 4 games and they should be safe. Next Up: BYE, USA, ITA
5. #TeamVoldemort - Team Glukhov (7-2, #7): The Cinderella Story lives on. First, lets address the team name change. As many noticed on social media Tuesday morning, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) put out a media advisory saying the use of "Team RCF" and/or "The Russian Curling Federation" is no longer acceptable. Ummm, whhhaaa? The competition is already underway. WADA has allowed the athletes to compete just not under the official Russian flag. And now, mid-competition, you want to change how we reference this team? Come on! WADA did not want to find the strength to ban Russian athletes from international competition but now you want to flex your might against media and fans in dictating what the athletes/teams should be called? So, as was discussed on social media, if this is unofficially the "Name we cannot say" why not give them a fun name instead? Note, this name is in NO WAY a comment about this team or the athletes. It is simply a tongue-in-cheek response to the WADA advisory. So welcome Team Voldemort. These guys continue to be the surprise, and feel good, story of the championships. Everyone continues to wait for the glass slider to fall off. They continue to wear it and continue to win. The remaining schedule is tough. They play one game on Wednesday against Canada, a team they are tied in the standings with. Their final 3 games are against Norway, Scotland and Denmark. A split should keep them safe. Go 1-3 and finish 8-5, you might be eliminated. Can the magic of #TeamVoldemort continue? Next Up: BYE, CAN, BYE
6. Switzerland - Team De Cruz (5-4, #3): Ok, people are going to be sounding the alarm and writing off the Swiss as they sit with 4 losses and have dropped 4 of their past 5 games. But hold up, wait a minute, the Swiss ain't out so lets just quit it. Look at their remaining schedule: DEN, NED, KOR, CHN. They will be favoured in all those games. Their 4 opponents have a combined record of 7-27. If they go 4-0, they finish 9-4 and the 4 loss mark is still the projected cut line. They cannot afford any more slip up's though so their back is against the wall. They do control their own fate, to an extent. The concern is, what if there is a tie at 9-4 between a few teams? The Swiss record against current top contenders is 3-3. They can finish 9-4 but, depending who is with them, they may find themselves with a bubble bursting due to the TB procedure. They have to hope they go 4-0 and hope Norway, Scotland or USA are not sitting next to them. Next Up: BYE, BYE, DEN
7. USA - Team Shuster (5-3, #6): USA appears to be in a better position than Switzerland, and do own the TB having defeated them earlier in the competition, but that TB only works if they can avoid taking more than one loss in their remaining 5 games. Wednesday will be the deciding day for them. They need to, at least, go 1-1 against Norway and Scotland. They finish with DEN, NED, KOR so they should go 3-0 in those games. But if they go 0-2 on Wednesday, it may not matter how they finish. Perception has them ahead of the Swiss for the final spot, the SOS shows a much tougher road ahead. Next Up: NOR, SCO, BYE
8. Italy - Team Retornaz (4-5, #8): Is 5 one too many? Unfortunately for Italy, it probably is. They need to win their remaining 4 games and hope for A LOT of help from those above and below them over the next 48 hours. They can do themselves a big favour by going 2-0 on Wednesday and bringing back teams currently ahead of them in the standings. They end the competition against DEN and NED so getting to 6 wins seems probable. But 8 wins is required, and even then it might not be enough. Italy finished one game out of the playoffs in 2019, it looks like they may finish one or two games outside the playoff picture again in 2021. Next Up: BYE, NOR, SCO
9. Germany - Team Totzek (2-6, #11): Ok so Germany is eliminated and playing for pride over the next two days. They know their playoff hopes are gone and they will be playing in the Olympic Qualification Event. There is a nice rumour going around the OQE might be held in Germany, so nice bonus for them if this became fact. What the Germans want to do now is finish strong and build momentum heading into the OQE. They won their sole game on Tuesday. They draw two teams below them in the standings on Wednesday. They finish with potentially the top two teams Thursday night and Friday morning (SWE, CAN). Plus they have a game vs. China wedged between those two game sets. A 5-8 record is within their grasp. It may not sound as exciting but 5-8 could land them a Top 9 finish. A Top 9 finish would give you the number 3 seed at the OQE, where 3 Olympic spots will be up for grabs. Sports Psychology 101 will be at play as this team wraps up the RR. Next Up: NED, BYE, KOR
10. China - Team Zou (2-7, #T13): Props to the Olympic hosts on putting together a solid day at the office on Tuesday. They knocked off #PACC rival Korea and gave Canada all they could handle in the night game. Canada was forced into a draw to the full 4ft with their final rock in 10 to secure the win. Not bad for a 2-win team against a 6-win team. China is starting to find their groove. Sure it is too late for a playoff push but if they can at least finish strong, it will build some momentum. Depending on how the current pandemic plays out, who knows when this team will play competitive games again before the Olympics. They are at an advantage of earning an auto spot as hosts. But, if selected as the representatives, they are at a disadvantage of not playing the OQE and having the unknown of their next competitive games. They finish with SWE, GER, JPN and SUI so there is a possibility of splitting those games for a 4-9 finish. Next Up: SWE, BYE, BYE
11. Korea - Team Jeong (2-7, #9): Korea fell victim to what we often see in sports. An underdog team knocks off a major contender for a #TeamUpset result and then falters in their next game against a team they should perhaps have defeated. Korea knocks off Canada Monday but comes out Tuesday morning and falls flat against #PACC rival China before being dominated by the defending champs at night. Their final four games are: GER, JPN, SUI, USA. They play only one game on Wednesday, against a German team coming off some great games the past two days. The #PACC rivalry game vs. Japan will be huge on Thursday and then they will try to play spoiler once again against SUI and USA. We saw what they did to Canada in a #TrapGame. Can they do the same to the two teams probably fighting for the final playoff spot? Next Up: BYE, BYE, GER
12. Japan - Team Matsumura (2-6, #10): Tuesday was not a good day for Japan. It felt like a continuation of Monday. The Japanese, 4th place finishers from 2019, are on a three-game losing streak. On Tuesday they were outscored 16-5 in their two losses. Ouch. And this is the team who, had they reached the playoffs, would have been designated the Olympic reps for Japan. So what happens now? Well, for one, they need to finish strong. They draw DEN, NED, KOR, CHN, SWE in their final 5 games. Two teams sitting next to them near the bottom of the table. Two teams who are #PACC rivals. And the defending champs. Japan can finish 4-1 to wrap up the competition, resulting in a 6-7 record. A 6-7 record could be a Top 8 finish. Sure sounds better than finishing 12th or below. Plus, if Japan can knock off both #PACC teams, the bragging rights alone could be the saving grace for them. Next Up: DEN, NED, BYE
13. Denmark - Team Noergaard (2-6, #12): Only one game on Tuesday and it was a tight loss to Germany. Denmark, who looked very good opening weekend, has just stumbled in their past few games. They are not playing bad but the experience factor may be catching up to them. It will not be an easy final few days for the Danes either. They get JPN, SUI, USA, ITA, #VOL. If there is a team who could play spoiler down the stretch though, it might be this team. SUI and USA better not overlook this team. Next Up: JPN, BYE, SUI
14. Netherlands - Team van Dorp (1-7, #T13): In the past 36 hours the Dutch have only played two games and they have been outscored 20-6. It might be a good thing they had Tuesday afternoon and evening off. Time to forget those games vs. China and Sweden and try to just move forward and finish strong. The remaining schedule for #TeamOranje is GER, JPN, SUI, USA, ITA. Similar to their fellow European competitors above, they will try to become #TeamSpoiler over the next few days. Can they possibly knock a contender out of a playoff spot and right into the #OQE? It would be a nice ending to a rather unfortunate week. Next Up: GER, JPN, BYE
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