#STOH2022 Preview

#BetweenTheSheet: Welcome to the #IceBubble...Again!

18 teams enter. 1 will survive.

Are you ready for some curling?

Don't you wish we could have some Canadian celebratory sing an opening theme song similar to what we see for "Sunday Night Football" or "Monday Night Football"?

Give me some Brett Kissel or Hunter Brothers. How about some Drake or Justin Bieber?

Maybe a throwback with Shania Twain or Nelly Furtado or Corey Hart?

Canada has so many outstanding musicians, why can we not have a curling promo song leading into our national championship events? A "Season of Champions" theme!

TSN, Curling Canada, The Canadian Academy of Recording Arts and Science. Get that partnership going already and lets make it happen!!

Ok lets focus on curling.

Ready to crown our next national champion?

Before we dive into the field, including team by team previews, seeding and predictions, there are a few hot topics we need to discuss.

Format Change...Again?!

Yay, another format change. How exciting?!

Ok, not really.

Why? Why is this happening?

Why was a decision made to eliminate the Championship Pool and add a Championship Round playoff bracket to whittle the field from 18 to 6 to 4 to 1?

Now teams get to fly to Thunder Bay, "enjoy" the bubble-life AND have the risk of playing less games than before?

The previous format allowed the Top 4 teams from the RR stage advance to the Championship Pool.

Now only the Top 3 advance to the Championship Round, which is a playoff elimination bracket, to narrow the field down to our required 4 for the page playoff.

The Championship Round SF games will finalize our 4 PPG participants. Those teams who finish 1st in their pool will already advance to the PPG but will competing in the Championship Round Finals to try and punch their ticket to the 1vs2 PPG.

The two teams who lose the Championship Round Final games will still advance to the 3vs4 PPG.

Got all that?

In simple terms, HUGE advantage to finish 1st in your pool. You know you make the playoffs. You also get the double shot of knowing even if you lose your Championship Round playoff game, you "drop" to the 3vs4 game and are still alive.

But there is the rub as well.

A team could finish the RR with a 6-2 or 5-3 record and be eliminated.

A team could finish 4-4 in the other pool and advance.

A 4-4 team can reach the Championship Round while a 6-2/5-3 team goes home? It could happen folks.

There will be only one TB draw allowed as well. And only to settle a TB for 3rd place in a pool. And only if those teams finish the RR above .500 (5-3 or better).

If more than 2 teams are tied, and assuming they meet the qualification criteria above as well, teams will be eliminated based first on head to head record and then accumulated last stone draw to determine the 2 TB teams.

The TB game would be played Friday morning.

When the format was changed to 2 pools with 16 teams, many people, athletes included, complained the format eliminated all teams playing one another and seeing one another on the ice.

What will those same people think about this format?

In theory, you see even less of your competition. 

In theory we could see 3 teams from 1 pool in the page playoff...and not because they defeated the other pools teams but because one team beat another team in a one-and-done playoff qualifier game.

We were not overly happy to see the page playoff removed last year in favour of a Top 3 playoff bracket. But this is the response?

At least last year a team can play 12 games before being eliminated, assuming advanced to the Championship Pool of course.

Now you can play 8 games, advance to the Championship Round and be eliminated after your 9th game.

I am not sure this is the solution people were looking for...or wanting.

Seeding

The format change brings up the same argument we see every year: Pool Disparity.

What if one pool is "tougher" than the other? A #PoolOfDeath if you will.

Every year we have this discussion. Every year one pool is perceived to be "harder" than the other.

At least under the old format, to make the playoffs you still would need to survive at least 4 teams from the other pool.

What do you have to do now? Beat one, at most, and off you go to the page playoff to possibly play the same team(s) you just played in the RR?

I am not sure why curling still prefers to use CTRS to finalize the pools. CTRS is far from perfect.

And, even if it was, we are still seeing a pool imbalance discussion every year.

Plus the delay in knowing the pools each year is a bit frustrating. It really should not be this complicated.

Why not adopt the same system used by the International Ice Hockey Federation?

They seed the nations for the following world championship based on the final standings from the previous world championship.

If you win the title, you are seeded #1 next year. If you finish sixth, well there is your seed.

The pool structure is already determined. Pool A is seeds 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16 and 17 while Pool B is seeds 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15 and 18.

If curling adopted the IIHF format based on the 2021 Scotties final standings, here is how the pools would compare for 2022:

Pool A (Current): WC1, WC2, WC3, SK, NOnt, NB, PEI, NL, NU

Pool A (IIHF): CAN, MB, WC3, WC1, NWT, NB, NS, NOnt, NU

Pool B (Current): AB, CAN, MB, ONT, NWT, NS, BC, QC, YK

Pool B (IIHF): ONT, AB, SK, QC, BC, PEI, WC2, NL, YK

The teams highlighted in RED are the teams who would be in different pools this year if the IIHF system was in play.

The big swap we noticed right away is the WC teams are no longer all together in Pool A.

Also, the Final 4 from 2021 (CAN, ONT, AB, MB) are no longer together in Pool B.

Look, I get it. The argument would be "well the teams are different and they change every year".

And my response is, "So?"

The nations competing at IIHF world championships are very different every year as well yet there seems to be less "debate" over the pools every year than there is in curling.

Should we ever live in a world where there Final 4 from a year ago are placed in the same pool the next year?

If Team Canada, Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba are the perennial favourites, shouldn't we want them in different pools to kick off the RR? Even if they are different teams from a year ago, they are still going to be formidable championship challengers.

And the argument of "What if one province has a disappointing Scotties? The province should be "punished" for their pool standing next year when it could be a different team representing them?"

And my response is, "Yes!"

This is a national championship after all. Teams competing are here to represent your province/territory.

Sorry curlers, it is not ALL about you as individuals and teams. It is also about the coat of arms and provincial/territorial name on your back.

Fans will always cheer for their province/territory. They will cheer from their home pride.

Even when *gasp* it is a team they may not actually "like" or cheer for on tour.

The Scotties and Brier are bigger than the athletes, teams and fans. It is a national championship for the sport and an opportunity to showcase why your province/territory is better than everyone else.

Pride wins out! 

Equality

Last but far from least, lets talk about equality.

I cannot believe we are sitting in 2022 and this remains an issue with the sport. But here we are and yes it does.

Look at this great tweet from Team Galusha prior to leaving for Thunder Bay.

Folks, we still live in a world where a female team about to compete at a national championship needs to make this statement as a reminder.

The statement is 100% on point.

Why are we, as a collective fan base, allowing critique of women's curling based on looks and smiles and "screaming" during games?

As the You Can Play motto goes, if you can play, you can play.

Let. Them. Play.

Do you constantly walk around your work smiling all the time, especially in a stressful situation?

Do you always have your hair game on point? Dressed to impress?

I know you don't. Don't lie. I don't either.

We know people don't always smile while working. We know people are wearing Lulu's to the office.

Do you go and gossip about your colleagues saying "they don't smile enough"? Probably not.

Why should we allow this type of behaviour towards our athletes?

Nobody wants to hear your commentary on how an athlete/team looks on the ice.

Now this is not to say we cannot be critical of our athletes. This is a blog after all and not a friendship circle.

Here is the quick breakdown of what you CAN and CANNOT comment on:

CAN

🥌 Shot selection

🥌 Results

🥌 Great shots / Missed shots

CANNOT

🥌 Personal attributes

🥌 Personal lives

It really seems simple, does it not?

Comment on the game, on the ice. Do not comment on the personal.

People may argue about commenting on the game itself as well but this is sport after all. We see it all the time, athletes included, debating calls and timeouts and results in all sports. 

Curling is no different and should not be treated any different. Debate the sport, not the player.

I will open up one small grey area: social consciousness.

This blog has been VERY open with social consciousness. I do believe athletes are provided a forum for social conscious issues, a forum most of us will never have nor experience (nor want sometimes).

Standing up in support of #BLM or Anti-Racism or Gender Equality or LGBTQ2S+ is IMPORTANT.

Representation Matters. We see it in all sports. Curling needs to continue to find its voice and athletes can lead the charge.

Team Galusha's statement is a great example of this. They are making a statement in support of Gender Equality and Canadian Women & Sport.

This is how athletes can use their platforms for social good.

And we should be encouraging our favourite teams/athletes to continue to do so.

What if you found out your fav player was homophobic? Would you still want to support that player?

Sure this may seem drastic and off-ice opinions maybe should not come into play; however, if those off-ice opinions and actions are supporting/removing basic human rights from another person, why should we tolerate it?

There is a grey area here but an important one.

When it comes to the statement made by Team Galusha, the statement is a PLUS.

The reason behind having to make the statement is a MINUS.

#BeBetter!

Ok enough of the off the ice chatter. Lets talk about the 2022 Scotties Tournament of Hearts event itself. 

Bring on the FULL PREVIEW!!

#PowerRankings

The Power Rankings return!

Ok, not entirely. We are going to use a Power Rankings system to break down our competing teams.

The teams are provided a "seed" based on their ranking.

Lets first look at the 18 seeds and then break down pool play and predictions.

1. #WC1 - Team Fleury: Top seed. Top ranked team in the world. All the stats suggest this should be their year. But can they rebound from the tough loss at the Olympic trials AND the disappointing finish to the Manitoba Scotties? Skipper will be in friendly home environment though, even without fans at the beginning of the week.

2. #ABStrong - Team Walker: The "trendy" dark horse pick from Alberta is back. Last year the team was after revenge and redemption. This year it is unfinished business. After the bronze medal win last year, can they team go one game better and play for the championship?

3. #TeamCanada - Team Einarson: Two-time defending champs are always going to be a threat. Sure the Olympic trials finish was disappointing perhaps but the field was strong and they battled hard to even make the TB bracket. Einarson will be chasing #HERstory in trying to become only the 4th skip to win 3 straight national championships (Vera Pezer, Colleen Jones, Jennifer Jones). Plus do you want to bet against Shannon Birchard? 3 Scotties appearance. 3 championships. Impressive! Can she make it 4 for 4?

4. #WC2 - Team Carey: Can Chelsea Carey pull the unthinkable and win her 3rd Scotties...with her 3rd different team...from her 3rd different province? Her Scotties record seems to point to "Yes!" Now based out of Saskatchewan, she will look to bring Sasky their first Scotties title since Amber Holland in 2011. Who was the alternate on that 2011 winning team? Team Carey vice Jolene Campbell.

5. #WC3 - Team Miskew: No Homan, No Problem? Miskew steps into the house to skip the team with Alli Flaxey joining the fold. Flaxey will play second, bumping Sarah Wilkes to vice. Hopefully all the drama off the ice with the Curl Ontario "selection" announcement and waiting for Curling Canada to finalize their MD Olympic decision did not distract the team. They are here. They are looking to compete. And they are looking to get back to their winning ways. The trials were a tough result. Can they rebound with a slightly altered lineup?

6. #BuffaloHunt - Team Zacharias: One of the feel good stories from 2021 became the ultimate #TeamUpset at the Manitoba provincials in 2022. Welcome back Team Zacharias. The experience of competing last year will only make this team stronger and more formidable this year. Can they surprise the field and make the playoffs? Lets also remember they are only 2 years out from the world junior championship (2020).

7. #CurlON - Team Duncan: See #WC3 above for off-ice drama. At the end of the day, Team Duncan is the right pick for this spot to represent Ontario. Do not get it twisted in thinking they are only here because Homan was named to the MD Olympic team. They have had an outstanding season and fully deserve to be competing at the 2022 Scotties. Duncan was here in 2018, reaching the Championship Pool and ultimately finishing 8th overall. This team could be the #TeamUpset championship contender pick.

8. #TeamGreen - Team Barker: You know who wants Scotties redemption? Moose Jaw's Penny Barker! Barker makes her 2nd trip to the Scotties after previously competing in 2017. In St. Catherine's, the team finished 1-10 and last place. On the positive, there is only one way to go now and that is up. Different team. More experience. And playing great this season. Remember they did compete at the Pre-Trials. Watch out for this dark horse challenger.

9. #FearTheMoose - Team McCarville: The home town team will certainly be the sentimental favourite. Sure fans will not be in the building, at least not until the final weekend of play at best, but you can believe everyone in Thunder Bay will be virtually cheering on Team McCarville every time they step on the ice. We know the Krista McCarville story. Always a threat. Bronze medal finish at the Olympic trials. This may be her year. Remember she has played a Scotties final before (2016), losing to Chelsea Carey.

10. #PolarPower - Team Galusha: Team McCarville will be the home fav but the consensus national fan fav will belong with the #PolarPower. Team Galusha has had, arguably, their best season. Winning on tour, competing at the Pre-Trials and looking to be ready to take the giant slide towards a possible playoff spot. It is almost unfortunate the format changed this year. Under the old format, Galusha probably had a stronger chance. But never count her out. Note, Galusha will remain throwing lead stones but will still skip the team with Jo-Ann Rizzo tossing the final rocks.

11. #TeamBluenose - Team Black: Sleeper pick for a surprise run? Don't raise your eyebrows at that statement folks. Christina Black has the experience and seems ready for the deep run of her own. Previously playing vice for Mary-Anne Arsenault for many years, Black took over the skipping duties when Arsenault moved to B.C. Black will be making her 4th Scotties appearance and was a member of the Arsenault Nova Scotia run to the podium in 2018 (bronze). This is a strong and experienced team. Watch out for the Sunday night game when Black takes on former skip Arsenault. Should be fun!

12. #TeamAcadia - Team Crawford: Look who's back in the house?! Andrea Crawford will make her 10th Scotties appearance in Thunder Bay. When we last saw Crawford on Scotties ice, she dropped a 7 spot on Team Einarson in the RR and lost a TB to Saskatchewan's Team Silvernagle, just missing out on a spot in the Championship Pool. Similar to Krista McCarville, Andrea Crawford is not a skip you want to see on your schedule. We know she will have great games. We know she can beat anyone in the field. We also know she can take some tough losses. Can she pull off a 5-3 record though to keep her in playoff consideration? The addition of formal New Brunswick rival Sylvie Quillian (nee Robichaud) was a smart move. Quillian will be making her 5th Scotties appearance.

13. #TheIslanders - Team Birt: See above? Crawford will make her 10th appearance but PEI's Suzanne Birt will be making her 13th! Last year Birt finished the RR with a 4-4 record, one game out of possibly qualifying for the Championship Pool. Can she rebound in 2022 and make a deep run once again? Birt won bronze at her debut Scotties in 2003 but has struggled to make the playoffs since. Never to be counted out though and always tough to beat.

14. #TeamPacific - Team Arsenault: Crawford 10 appearances. Birt 13. How about Mary-Anne Arsenault? 2022 will mark her 15th Scotties appearance. Of course a 5-time Scotties champion and 3-time world champion playing with Colleen Jones, Arsenault returns to the Scotties but with a different crest on her back. She made the cross-country trek to B.C. and has formed a #SuperTeam with Jeanna Schraeder, Sasha Carter and Renee Simons. Sound familiar? The trio won the 2006 and 2007 Scotties (and 2007 world championship) with Kelly Scott. This is not only a formidable experienced team but a formidable, experienced championship-winning team. Don't let the seed fool you. 

15. #Labelleprovince - Team St-Georges: The Rookies of the Year in 2021 are back! After reaching the Championship Pool last year and finishing 7th overall with a 6-6 record, Laurie St-Georges and her Quebec foursome are back and looking to do some more damage in their 2nd Scotties appearance. An instant crowd favourite yet still have not competed at the Scotties in front of any crowds. Shocking and kind of sad right? The fans love St-Georges and her team. The positivity and fun they have on the ice draws comparisons to Japan's Team Fujisawa. And look how successful they are! We can only hope they reach the playoffs just to finally get to play, possibly, in front of some fans in the arena. But will they suffer the dreaded sophomore slump?

16. #TheRock - Team Hill: The team from The Rock may not be considered a playoff threat but do not underestimate them either. Skip Sarah Hill will make her 2nd Scotties appearance after skipping the team last year. Similar to St-Georges, you have to feel for Hill as she also has not had the full Scotties experience of skipping on Scotties ice in front of cheering fans. Last year the team finished 2-6. Can they improve on their record in 2022? Vice Kellie Sharpe has a ton of Scotties experience, previously playing vice for Heather Strong (1998 - 2000) and skipping her own team in 2019.

17. #TeamArctic - Team MacPhail: You have to love seeing athletes who competed at a Canadian junior championship get their chance on the big ice at the Scotties. Brigitte MacPhail played on Canadian championship ice at the 2007 junior's and will now step on Scotties ice in 2022. She is joined by an experienced Scotties squad though. Vice Sadie Pinksen will make her 6th Scotties appearance...at the age of 22!! Pinksen and second Kaitlin MacDonald were at the 2020 and 2021 Scotties with skip Lori Eddy.

18. #PurplePower - Team Birnie: Hailey Birnie will make her 3rd Scotties appearance, previously representing Yukon as skip in 2020 and vice in 2019 (Team Baldwin). Birnie finished 1-6 in 2019 and 0-7 last year. Can she make some forward progress in 2022 and score multiple Scotties RR wins? 

#TwineTimePredictions

Pool A

#W2W4

Wildcard vs. The World!

Ok, not the world but you get the point.

All 3 WC teams end up in the same pool and with only 3 teams advancing to the championship playoff round, could the WC teams sweep the qualification?

Considering the names attached to those WC entries, it is not only feasible but very probable.

And I am not so sure that is what the sport or the Scotties needs to be honest.

Honestly, I am not a fan of the WC concept. I am certainly not a fan of having 3 WC teams. 

But I get it. Due to COVID ruining all our fun, I also agree this is the most "fair" system in place. I still argue there could be a stronger qualification structure in place for those WC spots or designate each WC position to a certain criteria point.

WC1 could go to the highest ranked team who did not have the opportunity to play in their provincial/territorial playdown due to COVID.

WC2 could go to the highest rank team who did participate in a provincial/territorial playdown but lost in the final and/or playoff.

WC3 could be a true wildcard, similar to the sponsor exemption we have seen at #GSOC events in the past.

And before anyone comes at me, take note this is a critique on the format/structure and NOT a critique against the 3 teams who are competing in Thunder Bay as WC teams.

No question Team Fleury deserves to be here. They are the #1 team in the world and have played great all season.

I am super excited for Jolene Campbell to be back at the Scotties. Campbell is a great person and a great curler. Anyone who will sit at a table with my brother and I to chat curling and, noticing I was distracted, offered to give my brother a drink without any hesitation is a solid person in my book. Not everyone is comfortable with feeding someone in a wheelchair who has cerebral palsy. Jolene Campbell had no hesitation!

And Team Homan/Miskew is a staple in Canadian curling. Plus I love seeing Alli Flaxey on the Scotties ice. Flaxey is another outstanding person who deserves success in the sport.

The question for this pool is whether anyone can step up and stop the WC domination. If I was putting money on a main contender, no question Team McCarville is the top of the list.

But if McCarville can pull off a top 3 finish, which WC team misses out? Or could we see a few teams take down those WC teams and a few of them fail to advance? 

What if all 3 failed to advance? Imagine the dramatics....

#TeamUpset:

The other 4 teams not mentioned above?

I would be very weary of New Brunswick and Andrea Crawford.

As mentioned in the #PowerRankings above, Crawford is very capable of beating every team in this field. The team likes to score points. Crawford is comfortable with a "messy" game but can also sit back, relax and play a low-scoring affair.

We know Crawford is good for 4 or 5 wins every Scotties. If she can secure the 5 wins here, it could get her into the championship round bracket.

Also keep your eyes on the "under the radar" Team Barker from Saskatchewan. Unless you follow the Sask Tour, you may not as familiar with this team. You are about to be!

And that result from Barker's previous Scotties? It is about to become a VERY distant memory. Look forward to the Barker vs. Carey Sask final rematch Monday morning.

Projected Standings (Seed):

1. #WC1 (1)

2. #FearTheMoose (9)

3. #WC2 (4)

4. #TeamAcadia (12)

5. #WC3 (5)

6. #TeamGreen (8)

7. #TheIslanders (13)

8. #TheRock (16)

9. #TeamArctic (17)

Pool B

#W2W4

Now this looks like a true national championship pool. Notice the field is all provincial/territorial champs/reps (plus the defending champs)? What a concept!

Also, look at the names. This is a very experienced pool, which means we may want to Expect the Unexpected.

Canada and Alberta will be co-favs based on both landing on the podium last year.

Manitoba and Ontario always produce championship contenders.

B.C. is a team stacked with not just experience but championship winning experience.

One could easily make an argument for 5 or 6 of these teams to be considered not only favs to advance from the pool but legit championship contenders.

Some big names, some familiar names and some championship winning names WILL go home early.

#TeamUpset:

The two fan favs are slotted in this pool: Quebec and Northwest Territories.

Curling fans would salivate at the thought of both of these teams somehow shocking the world and advancing out of this pool. Just imagine that scenario for a second.

Curling twitter would lose its mind!

Do not underestimate either finding success in Thunder Bay.

We know what Kerry Galusha can do on Scotties ice and, given the results this season, she has a new found fire under her slider and looks primed for a run.

Laurie St-Georges plays with no fear and is willing to get in a fight with any team, regardless of the resume they bring on the ice with them. And the team has fun while doing it.

This is a pool where 4 wins might create the awkward tie Curling Canada is not hoping for. Remember a TB game is only scheduled if the teams finish above .500 (5-3 record or better).

Projected Standings:

1. #TeamCanada (3)

2. #ABStrong (2)

3. #CurlON (7)

4. #BuffaloHunt (6)

5. #TeamPacific (14)

6. #PolarPower (10)

7. #Labelleprovince (15)

8. #TeamBluenose (11)

9. #PurplePower (18)

Playoff Qualifiers: #WC1, #TeamCanada, #FearTheMoose, #ABStrong #WC2, #CurlON

Page Playoff Qualifiers: #WC1, #TeamCanada, #FearTheMoose, #ABStrong

#STOH2021 CHAMPIONSHIP: #WC1 (Team Fleury) def. #FearTheMoose (TeamMcCarville)

The final I predicted while at the Olympic Trials in November...and I am sticking to it.

Imagine if we are fortunate enough to have fans back in the stands for closing weekend, treated to an all-Northern Ontario (skipper-based) final? A rebirth of an old rivalry? Fleury vs. McCarville?!?

Plus Northern Ontario remains one of the representatives yet to win a Scotties title. Their best result was the silver medal finish for McCarville in 2016.

Imagine Northern Ontario claiming gold AND silver? Ok technically one medal would be awarded to "wildcard" and that wildcard team actually represents Manitoba. Details, shmetails!

This may be more of a "heart" pick than a "head" pick but sometimes you need to listen to your heart...and hope those curling gods are listening as well.

#Beijing2022

While the Scotties take the ice in Thunder Bay, the Winter Olympics slide out of the hack at the same time in Beijing, China.

The mixed doubles competition will begin on February 2 with the Opening Ceremonies scheduled for February 4 and the men's and women's team competition tossing first rocks on February 9.

Getting into the Olympic spirit? Want to add some extra excitement into the game? Interested in giving back to a great non-profit organization who provides so many opportunities for young kids and families in Southern Alberta, including tickets to curling events?

Join the 2022 Winter Olympics 50/50 Pool!!

The game is simple. Predict the winners of each draw for the men's and women's RR (a total of 90 games!!). Predict the final RR standings. Predict the playoff bracket and podium finishers.

$20 entry fee with 50% going to the Top 3 finishers and 50% going directly to Kids Up Front Calgary.

Full details on the pool can be found HERE, including how to access the entry form.

You may remember a similar pool being offered for the 2018 Winter Olympics. HERE is a quick reminder of the success of the pool.

Daily updates to the standings will be posted in the #TwineTime Facebook Group.

A blog update will be shared at the completion of each section as well for those who do not have facebook accounts.

Share the pool with your fellow curling family members, friends, teammates, colleagues and local curling club.

Lets come together and cheer on the athletes competing in Beijing, give back to a great organization and possibly win yourself a little extra cash as well.

#StayTuned

The blog will be back to summarize the opening weekend of #STOH2022 action...and perhaps with a VERY special guest making a return to the podcast world?

Any guesses?

PLUS do not forget the Sandra Schmirler Foundation telethon continues, this year taking place on Sunday January 30.

Every year the blog donates to the great cause and challenges every reader of this post to donate as well. Any amount can make a difference.

And, if you are able to donate and feel comfortable doing so, post on SM your support and tag the Sandra Schmirler Foundation in your post. Encourage your friends and family to do the same.

For more information on the telethon, including how to donate, visit the website HERE.

The blog will return with a special 2022 Winter Olympics mixed doubles preview next week as well.

To those competing in Thunder Bay and Beijing, the world is watching. Good luck and good curling.

The ice is yours...