#PowerRankings W15

#BetweenTheSheets: Canada Cup Ice Bubble Watch Finale

Is the bubble ready to burst for those still in the hunt?

One grand slam major in the books. Another slam event coming up. And a massive Canadian event, with Olympic trial ramifications, is one spin of the rock away.

Welcome to November rock heads!

As the cut-off for finalizing the Canada Cup of Curling field quickly approaches, lets take one final look at the #IceBubbleWatch.

Did recent Masters performances burst the bubble for some teams? Could last-chance results at the upcoming Tour Challenge keep bubble hopes alive for others?

We last looked at the Ice Bubble at the Week 12 Power Rankings. Back then the men's bubble was still crowded while the bubble burst for a majority of women's teams.

The Masters provided a great opportunity for some teams to solidify themselves into the In position while eliminating Canada Cup hopes for others. Let us start with the women's Ice Bubble Watch.

IN: Team Fleury (222.07, #1)

BUBBLE: None

OUT: Team Rocque (128.968, #5)

Back in Week 12 we determined the final spot in the Canada Cup field had become a two-team race. While lets pop the bubble for Team Rocque and send the invite to Team Fleury. This race is over!

As Team Fleury continued to win in North Bay, the realization must have been setting in for Team Rocque. The lead was fairly large already but after watching Fleury not only collect wins but then go on to collect her first Grand Slam of Curling title, all hope faded away and the bubble burst playoff weekend.

Fleury has just under a 100 point lead heading into the final weekend. Both will be competing in the Tour Challenge Tier I. But the point differential is just too large to make up. Last year, making the SF at the Tour Challenge earned a team just over 50 points. The numbers game has caught up to Rocque. Congratulations Team Fleury! Look forward to seeing you in Leduc.

Is the men's bubble as clear cut as the women's?

IN: Team Dunstone (160.745, #2)

BUBBLE:Team Calvert (109.457, #5), Team Gunnlaugson (109.428, #6)

OUT: Team McDonald (100.541, #7), Team Muyres (100.172, #8)

Oh how fast the bubble can change. In Week 12 Team McDonald was sitting on the IN line with Calvert, Gunnlaugson and Muyres on the Bubble. Teams McEwen, Dunstone and T. Horgan were a level below in the OUT category.

One slam title later and the bubble has been flipped on its head. Dunstone is now in sole possession of the IN spot. McDonald bypassed the bubble all together and drops to the OUT line. Calvert and Gunnlaugson hold strong in the Bubble while Muyres dips a level down.

Dunstone is in full control and is probably one win at the Tour Challenge away from locking down the spot. But we cannot pop the bubble completely like we have on the women's side.

Lets use the SF points as an example. If Gunnlaugson, the last team in the Tier I, reaches the SF and collects around 50 to 52 points while Dunstone fails to collect a win, they could JUST squeak past and move onto the IN line. Plus Gunner and Dunstone are competing in the same pool this week meaning their RR game could be a decider depending how other results fall.

Should Gunner or Calvert, who is competing in the Tier II, end up winning the event and Dunstone fails to collect a W (which in a slam is not unheard of folks), the bubble could be turned around again and Gunner or Calvert could find themselves with a Canada Cup invite.

Dunstone could go from jubilation on winning his first slam to heartbreak for letting a Canada Cup berth slip right through his fingers....in one weekend! On the plus side for Dunny, Calvert and Gunnlaugson did themselves no favours this weekend in Morris. Calvert did reach the playoffs but lost in the QF, losing a good opportunity to gain points. Gunnlaugson failed to even qualify, leaving a lot of points on the ice for him.

As for McDonald and Muyres, they stay mentioned in the conversation even if on the OUT line. Technically still in this but barely holding on. Either would have to win the slam, with McDonald in the Tier I and Muyres looking to #DefendTheIce in the Tier II, AND have the three teams ahead all fail to gain any points.

There are still a few #IceBubbleWatch story lines to keep your eyes on in Nova Scotia this week. But, right now, toss Fleury the full invite and lets cut half the ticket to Dunstone.

Speaking of Gunnlaugson, a #TwineTimeFam member and blog favourite, it is time for the weekly runback of what happened on the ice this past weekend.

#GunnerRunback

#INturn

• Viva l'Italia - Could there be a #wct winner more deserving than Italy's Joel Retornaz? Team Retornaz dominated the Grand Prix Bern Inter Curling Challenge, going 7-0 en route to the final. After knocking off Team Ulsrud in the A-final, the Italians defeated #ECC rival Germany's Team Muskatewitz (QF), Russia's Team Glukhov (SF) and finally Scotland's Team Whyte (F). The final was a battle of both A-qualifiers.
• #GrowTheSport - Not only did an Italian win take home the title in Bern but it was nice to see a handful of Italian teams entered into the field. 4 teams were competing this weekend. Outside of Retornaz, the other Italian teams included: Team Rizzoli, Team Pimpini, Team Ribotta. Pimpini had the greatest success of the three, losing a B and C-SF. Retornaz has long been the face of Italian curling and his success is paying off with growth of more Italian men's teams on tour. Lets hope we continue to see this growth in Italy.
• Alberta Dominates Manitoba - The new-look Team Walker sure is sliding into their first season together with success. Already a tour winner this season in Manitoba (Mother Club), they added another title to the mantle and their first #Tour1000 win when they defeated Team Zacharias in the championship final. For Team Walker, with #TwineTimeFam members Laura Walker and Nadine Scotland, it was a perfect weekend as they qualified A-side and finished 6-0 overall. They also crushed Manitoba hopes along the way as every team they defeated was a Manitoba team, including knocking off Team Robertson twice. I would watch out for this team at the Tour Challenge Tier II this week folks!
• The Buffalo Hunt - The #NextGen movement was strong in Morris, Manitoba this weekend. Team (Tanner) Horgan took home the Dekalb Superspiel championship, knocking off defending Manitoba champs Team McEwen in the final. Could Horgan's victory be the first slide towards a changing of the guard in the Buffalo province? Horgan lost to McEwen in the A-qualifier, defeated another Manitoba threat Team Gunnlaugson in the B-qualifier and then knocked off Team K. Hartung and Team Ryan (another #NextGen team and former Canadian Junior rival for Horgan) in the playoffs before winning the final in an extra end. Many, this blog included, have praised Horgan this season but this is a HUGE victory for this team moving forward. The Dekalb spiel has often not only produced big name champions but has also qualified the champion for the season-ending Champions Cup. If that holds true again this season, huge growth for Team Horgan and the #NextGen movement.
• #NextGen - Horgan and Ryan were not the only #NextGen success stories in Morris. How about Team Zacharias? Ok sure they lost the final to Team Walker but what a run to reach the final. They certainly made it hard on themselves. After winning their opening game against Team Holland (defeating a former Canadian champ in Amber Holland btw) they lost their next A-side game, dropped to B and lost to USA's Team Dudt and then won two #CSideGrind games just to reach the playoffs, their first-time qualifying this season. But also remember this team came so close to qualifying in Portage. A #TeamUpset flag bearer has emerged for the Manitoba Scotties.
• Home Ice Advantage - Estonia's Marie Turmann seems prepared and ready for the European Curling Championships in a few weeks. Team Turmann won the Tallinn Ladies International this weekend in front of home nation Estonian fans, defeating Switzerland's Team Wuest in the final. At #ECC2018, Turmann used home ice advantage reaching the B-division final to qualify for the #ECC2019 A-division. Winning a tour event right before skipping your first Euro A-division (previous competed as alternate in 2014).
• #SwedishVikings - Nope, we are not talking about Team Hasselborg or Team Edin here folks. The #NextGen face of Swedish curling continues to show they are formidable challengers on the international scene. Team Wrana reached their third final of the year and collected their second #wct title when they defeated Team McCarville to win the Royal LePage Women's Fall Classic in Kemptville, ON. Props as well to Team McCarville who have played two events this season and reached the final both times. Always a threat!
• #TeamUpset - Are we seeing the next big threat out of Quebec? Vincent Roberge and his team from Levis, Quebec picked up their second #wct title this weekend. The team won the Mayflower Cashspiel in Halifax by defeating defending Nova Scotia champs Team S. Thompson in the final. For Roberge this marks back-to-back titles for the current Quebec junior champ. This team also sits at a respectful 13-6 record on the season, including going 11-2 in their past 13 games played. If you haven't started taking notice of this team before, I recommend taking notice now. We could be seeing this team on Brier ice soon.
• Japan Conquers Canada - The Japanese curling teams are coming for us Canada. We better be ready! We saw Team Yoshimura reach the Masters final. We know what Team Fujisawa is capable of. How about Team Koana as well? Team Koana collected their first title of the season, winning the Mayflower Cashspiel with a final victory over Team Breen. For Koana, this is her second final of the season and their tenth (10!!) event of the season.
• #QRollCall - Time to give applause to those teams who navigated a triple knockout or survived a grueling round robin this past weekend to reach the playoffs. Reaching the SF: Team Wiebe, Team Ryan, Team Robertson, Team Ackland (Dekalb), Team Ulsrud, Team Glukov (Bern), Team K. Thompson, Team Murphy, Team Birt, Team Brothers (Halifax), Team Harvey, Team Schori (Kemptville), Team Kubeskova, Team Team Nadherova (Tallinn). Reaching the QF: Team Calvert, Team Brundidge, Team Dilello, Team K. Hartung, Team Cannon, Team Watling, Team Horton, Team Holland (Dekalb), Team Muskatewitz, Team Hess, Team Pescia, Team Lottenbach (Bern), Team Willsey, Team Cyr, Team Ferland, Team McDonald, Team Arsenault, Team Hilliard (Halifax), Team Yoshimura, Team Little, Team St-Georges, Team Deschenes (Kemptville), Team Stabulniece, Team Rudzite, Team Sullanmaa (Tallinn).
• Mixed Doubles Champs - Most top-ranked teams took the in between slam week to rest up but some traded their same-gender teammates for some inter-gender partnerships. Props to world mixed doubles champions Anna Hasselborg / Oskar Eriksson for winning a #wct title in Wisconsin. The #SwedishVikings defeated Scandinavian rivals/married couple Kristin Skaslien / Magnus Nedregotten in the final. Worth noting John Morris got some warm-up ice time as well before joining Team Koe at the Tour Challenge, competing with Jolene Campbell and reaching the SF.

#OUTturn

• Scheduling, Scheduling, Scheduling - Does anyone else feel there appears to be a continued disconnect between the World Curling Tour and the Grand Slam of Curling? How do we go 13 weeks into the season with no slam events and then have 2 events in 3 weeks? You have to feel for the events from this past weekend. With top teams competing in both slam events of course they want to take one week off in between. They have jobs. Or families. Or need rest. Or all of the above...and more! But what about those event organizers? The Dekalb event is often one of the biggest events of the season and usually draws a top-calibre roster of teams. As mentioned above, there is a reason why the Dekalb men's and women's champion often qualify for the season-ending Champions Cup because the points earned for the victor is often one of the highest of the season. But they took a hit this year. As did the event in Bern. The Mayflower was lucky being in Halifax, close to the Tour Challenge, so a few Tier II teams competed. But overall, this is just horrible scheduling from the governing bodies. It is bad enough we have TSN and Sportsnet not really mention/discuss one another's events on TV, it is 2019 move on past this pettiness btw. We know both sides exist. But this kind of scheduling only perpetuates the image of the slams dominating the schedule and sending the message those "little" events on tour are not as important. Plus we have this whole points/ranking debate. This is not just a regular #OUTturn here. This rock has curled three or four sheets over and is heading right outside the club. #FixThis

Ok so most of the Top 10 took the week off. We get it. But resting up does not equate to the Power Rankings mountain laying dormant for a week either. Some teams lost points earned from last year and took a tumble. Some teams moved up the mountain. And some teams are closing in on the coveted Top 10.

#PowerRankings

MEN

1. Team Bottcher - 6583 (LW: 1)
2. Team Koe - 5515 (2)
3. Team Paterson - 5382 (3)
4. Team Mouat - 5380 (4)
5. Team De Cruz (5)

Hon. Mention: Team Gushue, Team Jacobs, Team Edin, Team Epping, Team Matsumura

Status quo for a quiet weekend among the big boys. Where do the big boys play? This weekend apparently they didn't want to play at all. As expected though with the short turnaround between two slam events. Oh scheduling.....

We do see a minor change in the Top 10 though. Masters champ Team Dunstone actually drops out of the Top 10, bumping everyone else up a spot and moving Japan's Team Matsumura back in at #10. Last year Dunstone won the Dekalb event. Falling to compete this year, thus failing to #DefendTheIce, actually cost him points. Dunny takes a fall on the mountain down to #11.

Now of course everyone will be competing at the Tour Challenge so opportunity to move up....or stumble down for some. Plus Matsumura is trying to #DefendTheIce at the #PACC remember. He could suffer the similar fate of Dunstone if he fails to hold his #PACC title.


WOMEN

1. Team Homan - 7720 (LW: 1)
2. Team Tirinzoni - 6955 (2)
3. Team Einarson - 4653 (3)
4. Team Fleury - 4653 (4)
5. Team Hasselborg - 4360 (5)

Hon. Mention: Team J. Jones, Team Fujisawa, Team Yoshimura, Team Kovaleva, Team Carey

No changes on the upper portion of the mountain. No surprise either as none of these teams hit the ice in the middle weekend between two grand slam events. The fun starts this week of course with everyone in Nova Scotia.

The bottom Top 5 did see some movement though. Switzerland's Team Stern, who debuted at #8 last week, dropped out this week. The playoff run at The Masters helped bump them into the Top 10; however, last year at this time they played in the Dekalb event reaching the SF. They took the weekend off to prepare to #DefendTheIce (and major points) at the Tour Challenge. As a result those points earned last year come off their point total and they dip in the rankings because of it.

Stern's fall to #11 means Canadian champ Team Carey is back in the Top 10 after a brief one-week hiatus. Now the question is whether Stern can reclaim a spot in the Top 10, needing to defend the Tier II champion points from a year ago? Can Carey stay in the Top 10? She only picked up 1 win at last year's Tour Challenge Tier I so opportunity to make a move if she can do better this week.

And just outside the Top 10, watch out for #13 Muirhead and #14 Silvernagle, also competing in the Tier I. But the most dangerous teams to the current Top 10 could be Germany's Team Jentsch, currently sitting at #15 and the #1 overall seed for the Tour Challenge Tier II, and Team Walker, fresh off the Dekalb title vaulting them from outside the Top 20 into #12.


With the second #gsoc of the season coming up, the only expectation we can assume at this point is expect the unexpected? Or expect to see some trembling on the mountain at least. Which teams catch their footing to stay at the top and which teams stumble is anyone's guess. And could a sub-Top 10 team make the big climb. #Parity perhaps?

#StayTuned

The blog will return later in the week with a preview of the #TourChallenge Tier I AND Tier II. Hmmm, should we bring back the curling haiku's for another grand slam event? 62 teams may be a bit too many but who knows what the preview will bring.

And don't forget there are some continental and national championships running this week. The #PACC is underway in China. For predictions, check out the blog preview HERE. And the Canadian Mixed Curling Championships are happening in Quebec. Stay up to date on scores HERE. There are even some #TwineTimeFam members competing at the #CMCC2020. The blog wishes them (and everyone competing of course) good luck and good #curling.